Valencia Tests, dreams and predictions

[Gustav O]

Krop --> I must admit that your comments regarding Preziosi make me wonder why you make them.Would you care/be able to shed some more light on the topic?

[Kropotkin]

Krop --> I must admit that your comments regarding Preziosi make me wonder why you make them would you care/be able to shed some more light on the topic?

It's just an impression I get. Preziosi's problem is that Stoner was fast on the Ducati, despite no one else managing to get it anywhere. And he has a philosophy that it is up to the rider to get the heat into the front tire and leverage the outstanding front grip, and the Ducati will use the extra grip at the rear to get drive out of corners. While Stoner was winning, Ducati could say to the other riders "Casey's winning, it must be your fault." While Rossi is struggling, they can no longer say it is the rider. Ducati have done this ever since they entered the series, although the 990 was an easier bike to ride than the 800, probably because it was designed less around the Bridgestone front tire. Preziosi will have to admit he's been wrong for all these years, and that's hard.

[Kropotkin]

All of which makes Stoner's decision to move look rather more like a necessity than an opportunistic one and his steadfast lack of any condemnation of Ducati fairly graciously diplomatic - not a quality that most would ascribe to him. That probably doesn't mean a hill of beans to Marlboro who would happily sell cancer to their own firstborn but I suggest that somewhere further down the track when distance from events lends perspective, his exit from Ducati will be viewed as done with dignity intact all around.

Stoner loves the people at Ducati, just not the decisions they made with respect to the pace of development of the bike. Stoner is intensely loyal as a person, and so is refusing to bad-mouth the company.

[Gustav O]

Thanks for the answers Krop. Makes sense to me.

[Desmo44]

While Stoner was winning, Ducati could say to the other riders "Casey's winning, it must be your fault." While Rossi is struggling, they can no longer say it is the rider.

Why not? It may not say much for Preziosi's baby, but if Rossi does have problems with the Ducati, Stoner's status goes off the chart.

[Kropotkin]

While Stoner was winning, Ducati could say to the other riders "Casey's winning, it must be your fault." While Rossi is struggling, they can no longer say it is the rider.

Why not? It may not say much for Preziosi's baby, but if Rossi does have problems with the Ducati, Stoner's status goes off the chart.

Because Valentino Rossi has nine world titles - one still reasonably fresh - that he can point to and say that he didn't get them free with a tank of gas.

[MarvoGing]

I honestly believe that the challenge at Ducati is far greater than the challenge at Yamaha. Rossi is the right rider and he has the right crew around him to effect the change, but the Ducati is fundamentally flawed, and until Preziosi accepts that, that bike isn't going anywhere. Rossi and JB will provide the right data, but the question is, will Preziosi listen?

+100
JB&VR may well walk on water, but what carbon composit experience can they bring to Preziosi's extremist party? It is going to be interesting.

[sir_nj]

This might be opening a can of woop arse but what if the question is not if Preziosi will listen or respond appropriately, what if it's can he respond and can he respond in time with the resources they have?

Let's assume he knows there is a serious problem (the stats says there is, how can you have only 1rider out of 4 with WCs that wins?).

Let's assume he is willing to use more conventional approaches to solve the problem (maybe not totally conventional since they would likely revert back to trellis rather than box beam).

If the assumptions are correct, then can Ducati build a suitable (and I mean one that is semi-competitive) chassis that will be ready from the get go and one that doesn't biff the rider down the road but also has enough adjustment to end up being very competitive fairly quickly? If they aren't able to do this then I can see why they would bring a whole bag of new front ends to try.

Krop, when Rossi negotiates with Ducati how does he get the assurance that this kind of support and willingness to change is there? Or does he not really ask this but rather it is Burgess or both? Given that Rossi seems to have signed well before anyone else then in this case it must have been Rossi alone.

Stoner loves the people at Ducati, just not the decisions they made with respect to the pace of development of the bike. Stoner is intensely loyal as a person, and so is refusing to bad-mouth the company.

and as such is doing himself no end of good in the maturity stakes and not giving any ammunition to those who like to call him a whiner. Well done Mr Stoner.

[ipso]

...there is a considerably relieved (in the mechanical sense of stress) upper headstock fitting than previously on Rossi's Ducati, plus a very much changed upper triple clamp...http://www.superbikeplanet.com/image/2010/motogp/valencia/test/3/6.jpg

Way after the fact, but I just saw this pick of Spies’ rig and thought of your earlier post. The number on it makes one suppose there are different clamp types. Or maybe that is purely telling everyone it is the backup bike.

There has to be some flex in that part. I wonder if it is significant at all in bike design/setup/feel.

[Desmo44]

Because Valentino Rossi has nine world titles - one still reasonably fresh - that he can point to and say that he didn't get them free with a tank of gas.

I don't in anyway mean to diminish or ignore Rossi's incredible capabilities and achievements. On the contrary, I fully expect him to be successful on the GP11, regardless of its improvement, such is my respect for him. I also am not trying to say that if Stoner can win on it, then the bike is OK.

My point is, that if Rossi can't ride the GP11 with some success, than it makes Stoner's achievements even more remarkable. We still have a whole season ahead of us, but at this point, even with bike problems and health problems, CS still has the most wins in the 800 era and on a bike no one else has been able to master. On the other hand, if Rossi passes him up next season on the Ducati, Stoner's achievements on the Ducati will no doubt fade from greatness.

[Thornado]

This might be opening a can of woop arse but what if the question is not if Preziosi will listen or respond appropriately, what if it's can he respond and can he respond in time with the resources they have?

Let's assume he knows there is a serious problem (the stats says there is, how can you have only 1rider out of 4 with WCs that wins?).

Let's assume he is willing to use more conventional approaches to solve the problem (maybe not totally conventional since they would likely revert back to trellis rather than box beam).

If the assumptions are correct, then can Ducati build a suitable (and I mean one that is semi-competitive) chassis that will be ready from the get go and one that doesn't biff the rider down the road but also has enough adjustment to end up being very competitive fairly quickly? If they aren't able to do this then I can see why they would bring a whole bag of new front ends to try.

My thought is that a chassis problem is the best problem to have with the current rules. A slow Suzuki style engine or poor electronics would be harder to fix with the limited number of engines the teams are allowed. They can throw a new chassis at the bike every weekend until they get it right.

[Oscar]

And the coveted Sphinx Award 2010 for inscrutability goes to:

J. Burgess (Australia), for:

“Are they having front-end trouble?"

(October 19, 2010)

[Rusty Bucket USA]

OK, I've been waiting for someone else to bring this up, but alas...

One of you "founders" here pointed out during a practice session a few years back, that he (it wasn't lucy) had figured out that Rossi was doing "sector practice", and intentionally never led any of the sessions. I don't remember which race it was, but Rossi went on to skunk it up and make everyone else look out of place. I've tried to keep that memory fresh ever since.

So, you take the World's most accomplished rider and the the World's most accomplished crew chief and put them in a test session with the World's most quixotic racing motorcycle, while the rider is nursing an injury that directly affects leverage and weight distribution... what do you do?
Look for specific elements to focus upon; not chaining together hot-lap times and inviting fatigue (to say nothing of further injury).

The photos I've seen tell me that Rossi was trying all manners of re-weighting the bike and experimenting in small chunks. I wasn't there, and the sector times aren't public (I don't think), but I'm willing to bet the data guys and the guy holding the watch (Burgess) could tell you what they learned, corner by corner, without wanting to brag about a lap-time trophy.

Is it good news or bad? I don't know; maybe both. Is that carbon fiber headstock a problem? I think so. But, if you're pursuing a wide palette of data, you have to stay focused on that mission, and not get caught up in other people's races.

[Oscar]

One of you "founders" here pointed out during a practice session a few years back, that he (it wasn't lucy) had figured out that Rossi was doing "sector practice", and intentionally never led any of the sessions. I don't remember which race it was, but Rossi went on to skunk it up and make everyone else look out of place. I've tried to keep that memory fresh ever since.

I also remember that piece of insight (though from who, I cannot remember) and I think I've reiterated it in some previous posts more recently - and it does show how Macchivellian Rossi can be when he so chooses (and of course Laguna Seca '08 leaps for attention).

However, I suspect that there's less value for the Duc than perhaps any other bike in that strategy, it would appear, simply because the Duc needs to get the front hot before it works at all properly and conventional wisdom says the damn things cool off quickly. Now most of (all?) the piccies of Rossi show him on softs, so maybe my comments don't apply properly, but I'd have thought that if you are trying to sneak up to the point at which the front end is loaded for bear you need the tyre working near max. capability.

[Richo]

That would be my thinking too Oscar. I assume it would be much harder to just pick a sector to go fast in as the tyre may have cooled enough in the previous (slower) sector to now not be at its best operating temperature. The Yamaha and Hondas being slightly less susceptibel to this or they have a greater operating temperature range than the Duc.

[WayneG]

My thought is that a chassis problem is the best problem to have with the current rules. A slow Suzuki style engine or poor electronics would be harder to fix with the limited number of engines the teams are allowed. They can throw a new chassis at the bike every weekend until they get it right.

This may not the case if they stick with the Carbon Fibre chassis simply due to the manufacturing time. I'm no expert in working with CF but read recently that a single set of CF brake disks takes between 3 and 4 months to manufacture from scratch. Even if they can turn around a new chassis in a quarter of this time it would make the lead time between chassis revisions difficult to work with when trying to develope the bike mid season. This may go some way to explaining Casey's comment that Ducati do not develope the bike during the season but merely adjust whatever they started the season with. I'm sure Vale's arrival will see alot more money and development thrown at the bike, but money can only overcome some (most) of the problems.

I would be very surprised if Preziosi would even contemplate reverting to a trellis frame for two reasons: 1 it would be embarrassing to Ducati and himself but more importantly, the bike in it's current configuration CAN win and podium. It would seem to me much more logical to work towards fixing the known front end problem than to throw it away and start from scratch.

My guess would be that JB will want to build a greater level of adjustability into the bike in an attempt to "tune out" the front end problem. Casey and Nicky have both stated this year that the front end gave absolutely no feedback as to when it was going to let go and as such had zero chance of saving it. Casey said in an interview at PI that he was riding on a knife edge for the first half dozen laps of each race because he had no idea what the front's grip level was like. He had to guess how hard he could push it, and sometimes he guessed wrong. If you look at the 5 race crashes he has had this year, 4 of the five have been in the first 5 laps. Qatar L5, Lemans L2, Indi L8, Sepang L1 and Estoril L5. This would seem to confirm his comments.

After the Valencia test Rossi seems to be facing the same problem. {from David Emmett's Day Two Notes} "Filippo Preziosi told the press that Rossi's problem was with feeling in the front end. It was the typical Ducati quandary: To go fast on the Desmosedici, you have to get heat into the tires. To get heat into the tires on the Desmosedici, you have to go fast. Without heat in the tires, the bike feels terrible, giving no feedback and feeling like it is about to wash out the front."

I have no doubt that JB and the team will get the bike close to the mark and Vale's talent will do the rest. But I can't see it being a quick "80 second" fix, which is why I predict (ie guess ) that it will be towards the back half of the season before they are truely competetive.

Interesting times ahead.

[Oscar]

This may not the case if they stick with the Carbon Fibre chassis simply due to the manufacturing time. I'm no expert in working with CF but read recently that a single set of CF brake disks takes between 3 and 4 months to manufacture from scratch.

Wayne - making C/f brakes is a very different process from making a c/f matrix lay-up. The brakes are baked for many days at temps around 900C or more and the carbon 'fibres' are created by the baking process. A c/f matrix lay-up almost always uses pre-preg c/f 'cloth', which is laid up and then autoclaved for maybe 24 hours at a constant temp (typically something like 50C - 80C) and pressure to 'post cure' - the heat and time plus the weave, fibre orientation and thickness all have major effects on the strength and stiffness of the resultant structure. With finite element analysis software you can quite quickly develop a model of a different layup and determine its characteristics.

Ducati could rip off a significant number of 'chassis' of different characteristics in quite a short time. However, that's still in the realm of 'by god and by guess' if they don't KNOW what characteristics they need and only testing is going to provide that answer.

It's a constant diatribe of mine that I believe the BS tyres have more variability than BS is happy to admit, and with the basically fairly uncompliant nature of c/f, a small variable is likely to be reflected in an 'out of tolerance' response more readily than for an alloy frame. Short of making the Ducs into flexi-flyers I suspect that the c/f 'chassis' idea will remain one that is theoretically good but vulnerable to quite small changes in external factors. Racing yacht masts and Boeing Dreamliners are but two examples of the complexities of the medium..

[sir_nj]

This may not the case if they stick with the Carbon Fibre chassis simply due to the manufacturing time. I'm no expert in working with CF but read recently that a single set of CF brake disks takes between 3 and 4 months to manufacture from scratch.

Wayne - making C/f brakes is a very different process from making a c/f matrix lay-up. The brakes are baked for many days at temps around 900C or more and the carbon 'fibres' are created by the baking process. A c/f matrix lay-up almost always uses pre-preg c/f 'cloth', which is laid up and then autoclaved for maybe 24 hours at a constant temp (typically something like 50C - 80C) and pressure to 'post cure' - the heat and time plus the weave, fibre orientation and thickness all have major effects on the strength and stiffness of the resultant structure. With finite element analysis software you can quite quickly develop a model of a different layup and determine its characteristics.

Ducati could rip off a significant number of 'chassis' of different characteristics in quite a short time. However, that's still in the realm of 'by god and by guess' if they don't KNOW what characteristics they need and only testing is going to provide that answer.

It's a constant diatribe of mine that I believe the BS tyres have more variability than BS is happy to admit, and with the basically fairly uncompliant nature of c/f, a small variable is likely to be reflected in an 'out of tolerance' response more readily than for an alloy frame. Short of making the Ducs into flexi-flyers I suspect that the c/f 'chassis' idea will remain one that is theoretically good but vulnerable to quite small changes in external factors. Racing yacht masts and Boeing Dreamliners are but two examples of the complexities of the medium..

don't take this the wrong way but I'm lovin' this thread. I have come to the realisation that I must be a nerd

So many variables (tyres, heat, lap position), so little margin for error (carbon fibre), so many years of experience (Rossi/Burgess). Just makes me shake my head still wondering how did Casey ever push hard enough to get it going? Remember his first crash this year and he said he had backed off, how do you cope with knowing you backed off and lost the front? Go harder? That takes a huge leap of faith. Given Rossi's first outing and not needing any further injury he would really have been crazy to do that, however, wouldn't it be interesting if he could just get some really really soft front so he could work out the potential. Anyone remember Lawson's comment when he first stepped off Garnders bike? I wonder if Rossi is going to say that about Stoner one day?

[jihem]

While I'm totally convinced Rossi and team have been promessed anything they want from Ducati for this year too, how much changes can we expect for a bike formula (800cc) that is doomed to more or less disappear end of the year ? I'm sure Rossi eyes 2011 crown but can't we assume the real big input from Rossi will be on the 1000cc and THERE Prezisio will be 100% listening ?

[sir_nj]

While I'm totally convinced Rossi and team have been promessed anything they want from Ducati for this year too, how much changes can we expect for a bike formula (800cc) that is doomed to more or less disappear end of the year ?

In a way I agree but the electronics and motor "should" be fine. The same handling problems will presumably happen with a 1000 (if they choose to go that way). Do you think Rossi is even going to bother going out if they don't make a decent effort? I wouldn't do it if I was him or any one of the aliens. They deserve the best effort the factory can manage. Or just bugger off home.

[Oscar]

I suspect that the Rossi focus here has now reached the point of diminishing returns - at least until more information is forthcoming from 'authoritative sources'. That is by no means an attempt on my part to snuff out more commentary - far from it - but what about the rest of the field?

Has everybody found a suitable home? (and is it indeed the Big Issue?)

I'd like to start with Stoner (c'mon guys, I know I bang on about him a lot, but I feel I've been good so far). To me, he's succeeded in meeting expectations fairly well, since the pre-test vibe was pretty much that he would be fast and I don't think that - given Pedrosa's battered condition - his results come as a huge surprise. The better test will be the next one, where I expect he and Pedrosa to be trading times.

I think there was more at stake in internal politics within the HRC camp for Stoner to do well than for any other team. He's delivered for himself, obviously, but also for Suppo in the alleged battle for Repsol benificence viz-a-viz the Puig influence factor. That does not, I am sure, diminish the Repsol desire for and marketing advantage of a Spanish hero, but I suspect that much less than a fairly stellar performance may have seen Stoner somewhat on the hind teat in the pit box. History suggests that Repsol considers Spanish ethnicity to be a seriously major factor in its patronage choices , as Hayden is my witness. Has Stoner done enough to ensure himself a level playing field in the pit box? I'm inclined to say that it was the best possible start, but not yet a fait accompli.

Lorenzo next. Pretty obviously, he's done more than enough this year to completely redecorate the Yamaha pit-box and elsewhere to his satisfaction (and theirs) and he simply continued that trajectory quite seamlessly at the test. Frankly, I doubt that Yamaha will become even the slightest bit concerned about their chances for a repeat next year unless there is a real blip on the radar at the next test. If anybody should be concerned about next year it is Lorenzo himself with Furasawa stepping back and perhaps a different dynamic in the Yamaha racing dept. without him. However, he has an almighty good base from which to work. If he visits a fortune-teller, though, I suspect he'd be mighty interested in prognostications about:

Spies. If there's one person who, from the tests, I feel has just about set already where he will be hovering most races, it's Spies. If any of the aliens is off-song by even a tad for any race, I personally feel Spies will just naturally slip in there. I don't yet see him being able to do a runner in the way any of the fab. four can do on their day but I think he's going to be more persistent than flies at a barbeque in being there to snap up any mistakes.

Pedrosa. For him it seems to me it's yet another season he starts off with the spectre of 'last chance to succeed' hanging over his head, which is pretty unfair considering what he has actually achieved. He must surely be cursing his luck that Stoner has arrived probably one year too early for him to really capitalise on the new toughness he exhibited in 2010,since that will be yet one more battle he has to fight. That he will fight, I believe is a given. the first laps of pretty much every race should be memorable next year and I have few doubts that Pedrosa won't be one of the protagonists on at least most of those occasions. QP is going to be crazy, wonderful stuff with him always right there.

Simoncelli. Highly likely to be more irritating than a burr in the underpants to the leaders at times but to me yet to prove he has the stability to run top four to the flag in a close-pack race .

Hayden. The guy has the grit to do the Tour De France in a sandpaper jockstrap but it's terribly hard to see that he won't be relegated to a reprise of 2007 in the Duc team. His best hope for a good season is that the development work for Rossi will work quickly and flow on just as fast. Right now I pick him as MOTM for P.I. '11, though. Come season end, I think he will have reasons to share a beer and a tear with:

Dovisioso. Deserves better but, as with Hayden, I see his season hobbled with development duties and suffering not only in comparison to the free reign given to the fab. four but also in comparison to Simoncelli who is not likely to be asked to do much or any development work. Fairly likely he will see quite a bit of:

de Puniet. Interesting to see the comparisons with his style and Stoner's on the Duc, given that he has sort of followed the same path as Stoner, just more slowly - in both senses of the word. If the 2011 Duc developments flow on down, he could have lucked into a team where the bike and his ability finally mesh.

Capirossi. Still seems outwardly to be fairly much the same happy guy as always, but it's hard to believe that the fire is much more than some embers now after firstly the previous unceremonious dropping by Ducati and the whole Suzuki experience. Yet the guy has by no means forgotten how to ride fast and sometimes he can be quite delightful to watch, bags of heart and heaps of style all together. Can't help but feel that it is his swansong year, though, and I'd love to see him leave with honour even if it's unlikely there will be honours.

That (plus Rossi) is my pick for the top ten. I think it's more than enough for discussion at the moment.

[phil]

One of you "founders" here pointed out during a practice session a few years back, that he (it wasn't lucy) had figured out that Rossi was doing "sector practice", and intentionally never led any of the sessions.

That could of been me I remember subscribing to that theory a while back...
**EDIT** But thinking about it I could of just read it here (from one of you clever so-and-so's) and took it on board from there...

[TwoStroke Institute]

So Preziosi is in the frame if the GP11 is no good?

[RatsMC]

So Preziosi is in the frame if the GP11 is no good?

Do you mean do Ducati get rid of him if they can't work it out? I cannot imagine them dumping the guy. Given the limited resources available to the factory, they have done incredibly well - all on the back of one guy. It's not like Yamaha or Honda where they could drop their lead and pull someone else in from their army of engineers.

Of course I may be responding to something you weren't asking

[Rusty Bucket USA]

...if you're pursuing a wide palette of data, you have to stay focused on that mission, and not get caught up in other people's races.

I'm not saying they were executing a Machiavellian ploy to confound the rest of the paddock (and especially the journalists), and strategically selecting sectors to go fast for the sake of appearance. While I understand Oscar's point about having to ride at 10/10ths to keep heat in the front, I still think they were executing a strategy to explore a range of feelings for the bike and collecting data to compare with Rossi's commentary. That is the big thing The Doctor brings to the venture. In Hayden, they already have a go-fast guy who can replicate a control group, gradually chipping away at a large number of laps. In Rossi and Burgess they (Ducati) now have a more clinical approach. And again, there is no down side, whether talking about preserving the rider or his legacy.

About Stoner, I think one small detail is being overlooked when discussing the inferred HRC "politics". Though I don't know how many of the "important" factory techs (meaning: programmers) were working with each of the HRC riders, what Stoner effectively laid down was the understanding that he doesn't really need any development help.
Even if Puig can somehow repeat the stunt he pulled in '06, Stoner has basically stated, "Look at that... I've got no time on the bike (in development terms) and I'm already faster than everyone you've had riding the bike all year. OK, sure, you've got an injured rider and guy testing development stuff, but I'm already lapping with the current Champion, so as long as you don't take away my mechanics and de-tune the bike, I don't really need much help."
Said another way, "Repsol and HRC don't have to worry about how much they spent bringing me in. I'll be fast on whatever they give me, so they don't have to worry about spending any more on me than the other guys."

In that sense, Pedrosa has to be scared. And there is no doubt, Puig is already planning to remind the world he brought Stoner and Pedrosa up together, and he is just thankful to have his "prodigal son" return. That should be good for a few laughs...