Chasing the Holy Grail - Title Battle

[CLX]

We have threads for each race and a lot happens in there, especially after a weekend like this last one. But I feel we get so caught up in the race events - Rossi sliding, losing the chance to fight for the win and taking Stoner out, Supersic leading and crashing, Spies, Cal et all crashing - that we forget to discuss the ongoing championship battle, which is exactly what is all about.


After a preseason of domination and two races, we don't have any Honda rider in the lead. Instead, Lorenzo is back there after riding his socks off at Qatar and having a champion textbook race in the wet at Jerez. We all know how this has happened, but what does this mean for the rest of the season?

Does Lorenzo's speed and maturity make him the outright favourite?
Will Casey shake of his disapointment and anger at Jerez and get things back on track? A 20 point gap is a big one against someone so fast and reliable.
Can Dani recover form his surgery in time to fight for the title? What if Casey and Lorenzo pull a big enough lead by the time he's 100% fit?
How long until the GP11 is a race winning bike? What role will Rossi have in the outcome?

As far as I know, Lorenzo is the favourite. The M1 remains a competitive as ever and there are very few tracks in which a RC212V will simply power away. With Pedrosa not totally fit and Rossi learning how to ride the GP11, it'll be very difficult for Stoner to bag wins after wins while JLo misses podiums and drops big points behind. And then Estoril is right next on the calendar. Lorenzo has won all 3 Moto GP races he contested there, a record even better than Stoner's at Qatar or PI. If JLo suddenly bags another win, he's at least 25 points ahead of Stoner, 14 from a recovering Pedrosa and 30 from Rossi.



What do you guys make of all this?
It's definitely not panning out as pre-season testing suggested.

[Gustav O]

Interesting thread and topic.
Crashes and mechanical failures are hte things that, as we have seen, can change everything in an instant. Stoner might still be the fastest rider out there but now a crash or mechanical will be even more devastating for his championship. How will this affect the way he approaches the coming races?

What can Yamaha do in the engine department for the latter part odf the season and will Lorenzo have enough in the bag to maintain a lead or catch the rest if he needs in the latter part of the season. coming in to Estoril Lorenzo must feel very good about the season so far and I am sure his confidence have grown a bit as well.

[Tormo4ever]

I still don t think the Hondas are that far ahead. I just think they have stronger riders in Casey and an even injured Pedrosa. Let s see how Da´ni´s surgery and convalescence go. Right now i can only see three and a half aliens on the dry. Ben needs to step up a bit.

Anyway, it s gonna be veeeeeeery close this year. Bring it on. One can nly think how exciting all this would be with less electronics, we re witnessing inmho the best generation of riders since the late 80s / early 90s.

[Rossifumi]

shaping up for a 3 battle I think. Stoner is now in the position of having to chase and will need to be patient - as you say, another DNF will put him in a pretty difficult position. Lorenzo looks like he will get reliable points all year so will be hard to close a gap on, and I agree, Estoril will probably be another win and open the gap wider for him. Dani is a bit of an unknown quantity - if the surgery fixes his problem i think he'll see the benefit from Estoril onwards. He's fast enough to string some wins together if he's got the endurance. For the championship and the neutral Stoners' crash was probably the best thing that could've happened.

[Desmo44]

One factor I haven't heard much comment about is the concern that might be expressed in the Yamaha garage about engine life. If Colin's engine did in fact let go during the second race weekend, that has to cause some concern in the background for Lorenzo with the possibility of the engine restrictions affecting the championship.

[ieism]

So far this season is very different to what I expected.

1. I didn't think anyone could touch Stoner on the Honda.
2. Lorenzo 1st is a bit of a suprise, I knew he's be fast most of the time but didn't expect him to win already. So solid.
3. Rossi is actually not as far back as I would have thought, considering his preseason tests. And it's not even pure luck, I'm really starting to believe he can be a top 3 rider somewhere this year.
4. You gotta love how Aoyama is very silently doing his thing. Everybody (including me) is talking about Simoncelli beeing almost up there, and Aoyama is not even on a full factory machine with the new gearbox and he's currently 6th, one point behind Rossi! Fastest non-factory rider, and beating two factory Honda's!
5. Not feeling sorry for the Suzuki this year is a big suprise. Still feeling sorry for Capirossi though...

I'm really looking forward to this season.

[Faster1]

2 VERY "unique" races into the season leads me to no change from what I suspected from first lights out.

Qatar has always been both interesting, and not-really an indicator of the rest of the season. Riders perform differently under the lights,, And then we had rain,, another coin flip, non-revealing outcome,, other than who rides well in the rain.

We still haven't had a "normal" race.

Aside from Pedrosa's injury giving the edge to Stoner, The Honda's (IMO) remain a huge favorite to run the rest of the table. I still think that Casey will win at least 6 races. If we have another 3 or 4 rain races, than the championship is anybody's.


,, an entire month before the next race,,,

[TheSecondStain]

The season is barely under way and, as the OP points out, things are already different, in the 800s, from the pointers pre-season testing were giving us. Lorenzo seems to have very maturely got on with it, and taken almost maximum advantage of the changing circumstances. Fair play to him for that. If we'd have had two dry races, barring racing incidents [!], we'd be looking at Stoner on top with perhaps Pedrosa [injury aside] or Lorenzo in short order underneath, with Dovizioso, Simoncelli and Spies somewhere thereabouts. However, Jerez was a wet race that was getting too dry, and which buggered the wet tyres, and so that's the game everyone has had to play. The margins between being a hero or a zero in this race were even more wafer thin than they usually are. I tip my hat to Hopkins for getting on the Suzuki, with almost no fast practice at all, and staying upright, let alone coming in scoring proper points [6]. I seriously wonder if a 100% fit Alvaro Bautista would have done much, or indeed any, better. Where's the petition to get Hopper back into a permanent seat for 2011 because, on his performace in Jerez, I'll add my name to it..? Hiroshi Aoyama, for quietly staying out of everyone else's flying bikes and registering a good finish. Really bad luck for Colin Edwards, while getting to a rare podium, his engine seizes on him, in a wet race..! Was he going too slow for his M1 to keep cool..? When was the last time that happened..? Pedrosa for coming through the ranks to finish second, although I must admit, I thought his old trouble of being too slow in the wet [who isn't..?] was coming back to haunt him. Hope he recovers well from his surgery, because I believe the chances of a maximum recovery aren't as guaranteed as one might think. I'm not going to comment on Capirossi or Elias, and practically everyone else fell off and either recovered or didn't. Casey was just bloody unlucky.

I watched the earlier races, and for me the ride of the entire day was Andrea Innaone. He's also the rider of the season, so far, for me. If you get a chance to see it, just sit back and enjoy. He started from 11th on the grid, and it was like watching Rossi in his pomp. On this form he's in MotoGP from next season, no doubt. For me, Bradley Smith was brilliant as well, taking the otherwise uncompetitive [so far] Tech 3 chassis to 4th place. I'm really pleased for Bradley, and hugely impressed. Terol was his impressive dominant self in the 125 race, although he was pressed close by his teammate. Perhaps he made the right decision to stay in 125s, after all. On this evidence he's the guy to beat, though, like last year, I reckon he could be his own worst rival. Strangely, unlike the 800s, wet or dry I'd expect this position to be the same in the lesser classes. Perhaps Marquez wouldn't have fallen again, if it had been dry..? Don't know. Maybe he won't figure quite so close to the top this year.

We all know what a huge tragedy Japan is under going and I'm truly sorry. But let me be a tad flippant - a month is a very, very long time in MotoGP.

[Gustav O]

From what I have heard Edwards had a fuel pump failure so more down to a one of bad component than the Yamaha engines having endurance problems.

[CLX]

One factor I haven't heard much comment about is the concern that might be expressed in the Yamaha garage about engine life. If Colin's engine did in fact let go during the second race weekend, that has to cause some concern in the background for Lorenzo with the possibility of the engine restrictions affecting the championship.

Do Tech 3 and the Factory team get the exact same engines? And electronics?

[TheSecondStain]

From what I have heard Edwards had a fuel pump failure so more down to a one of bad component than the Yamaha engines having endurance problems.

Well that does make much more sense.

[CLX]

Dennis Noyes tweeted about an inside source mentioning a engine problem.

Now, if Edwards enigine in yesterday's race suddenly isn't used anymore this season...

[Squidpuppet]

Dennis Noyes tweeted about an inside source mentioning a engine problem.

Now, if Edwards enigine in yesterday's race suddenly isn't used anymore this season...

Let's hope David can get us those cool engine usage charts like he did last year. It'll be telling for sure.

[frankrizzo]

This is a great thread and one that if fully subscribed might make for some interesting reflection later. No doubt Jerez didn't go quite the same in rehearsal but it could all change just as much at Estoril. Much as the first few laps of Sunday's race, things need to settle somewhat with the Championship - and with the 'ground war' about to begin in earnest on may 1st it could be a few more races before a reliable pattern emerges. We were robbed of a chance at seeing Lorenzo/Stoner/Pedrosa or any two of the aforementioned going head to head however, going by how dani made a pass stick on Ben Spies in the race, we might be in for a treat now that he's fit. It's about those three guys, maybe even more about Casey and Jorge but Jorge's podium record will make it hard work. Classic case of the fastest guy vs. the most consistent. I am hopeful of one thing at Estoril, Stoner should have his pre-Jerez wish granted, the one for a straight battle with the 'Spanish riders' as he so carefully put it last weekend.

[CLX]

So now we're looking at

Jorge LORENZO Yamaha65
Dani PEDROSA Honda 61
Casey STONER Honda 41
Valentino ROSSI Ducati 31
etc...

What I get is, Rossi needs to find a lot of time from his Estoril upgrades. 16 seconds from the winner at Qatar, another 16 at Estoril, and we know Ducati haven't been sitting still through this whole period. The only difference is Stoner paced himself at Qatar and Pedrosa was very close to 10 tenths all race long at Estoril. Who knows? I won't count him out, not yet. Stoner and Pedrosa can still perfectly do it. They have the bikes and the speed. What they must do is estabilish superiority as soon as possible to not risk always losing points to one another and letting Lorenzo slip through. By all acounts, Lorenzo has lost nothing of his impecable 2010 form. 19 podiums from 21 races is the kind of stuff that goes straight to record books...

IMO, the odds after Estoril are:

Rossi 5% (it's still Rossi)
Stoner and Pedrosa 30% each (Stoner has less points than Pedroa, but seems in better shape and has been there and done that in the big scene already. On a perfect weekend and HRC track, a 1-2 should help both against Lorenzo)
Lorenzo 35% (leads the points, perfect health, very competitive bike, stays away from trouble, has clear superiority over his teammate, Yamaha have not forgot how to makes and develop bikes so soon simply because JB and VR left, perfect weekends with HRC 1-2 won't come so often).

What's your take guys?

[phil]

Rossi 5%
Stoner and Pedrosa 30%
Lorenzo 35%

It's very hard to say but I think yours is a fair evaluation.
Before Estoril I would of said VR 2%, CS 34% JL 34% and DP 30%.
I've always doubted Pedrosa's 'luck'. But really he was quite lucky in the opening two rounds; he admitted as much himself, so maybe things are turning for him.
So now I'd say VR 4% and 32% each for the other 3!
I think it's that close.
Why has VR's %age gone up?
Well, for 1 because it make the numbers easy to round up, but 2 just in case the others get caught in a war of attrition later on in the season.
But, as always, this is just a guess.

[Faster1]

just my .o2 cents,, not to offend,


The (only) good news is that this should be the closest championship in years,, where a DNF might be the deciding factor.

30% If it weren't for Stoner's DNF, I'd stay he was the favorite, still the fastest. Now he needs a little misfortune to happen to JL and DP.
35% Pedrosa, while always fast, has yet to prove that he can get more than 2 or 3 great result in a row, or not crash every 5 or 6 races.
30% Lorenzo,, Mr. smooth, has the skill, chops and patience to do it,, unfortunately, the Yamaha doesn't have the motor to be an asset on the faster tracks.
5% Rossi, without a substantial breakthrough improvement to the Ducs manners, he''ll need 6 or 7 rain races for the edge.

Simoncelli & Spies - Fast but unlucky,, no way a threat to the title this year. It will be about how many point they will steal from the top three.

It's Dani's to lose,,

[Rossifumi]

I've always doubted Pedrosa's 'luck'. But really he was quite lucky in the opening two rounds; he admitted as much himself, so maybe things are turning for him.

Pedrosa had to ride with the problems caused by the Motegi crash which cost him dearly at Qatar - I think he had the pace to challenge Stoner for the win - and was still suffering from it at Jerez so I don't think he could be described as 'lucky'! Both rides were pretty heroic under the circumstances.
I don't think there's anything to separate Stoner, Lorenzo and Pedrosa for the title at this point - they are clearly the only contenders though, can't see anyone else winning a race.

[Rossifumi]

30% If it weren't for Stoner's DNF, I'd stay he was the favorite, still the fastest.

Stoner was slower than Dani, Lorenzo and Simoncelli at Estoril. I don't see this great speed advantage that many others seem to see - the 'fastest man in motoGP' is currently 3rd fastest on a Honda!....equal title favourite with Pedrosa and Lorenzo though.

35% Pedrosa, while always fast, has yet to prove that he can get more than 2 or 3 great result in a row,

3rd, 2nd and 1st in the first three races is three great results in a row, even without the injury/surgery issues.

[RatsMC]

30% If it weren't for Stoner's DNF, I'd stay he was the favorite, still the fastest.

Stoner was slower than Dani, Lorenzo and Simoncelli at Estoril. I don't see this great speed advantage that many others seem to see - the 'fastest man in motoGP' is currently 3rd fastest on a Honda!....equal title favourite with Pedrosa and Lorenzo though.

Estoril isn't probably a good track to measure Stoner by. I agree that Stoner's speed advantage isn't great but I would argue that it is real, just very slim. The next few races will tell us a lot more since I don't believe any of them are bogey tracks for either rider and Pedrosa is up to 100%.

[CLX]

Estoril was never Stoner's strongest race of the season.
3rd on a bad weekend is always good.

Ammong the title contenders, only Rossi and Lorenzo have won at Le Mans in Moto GP.

[phil]

I've always doubted Pedrosa's 'luck'. But really he was quite lucky in the opening two rounds; he admitted as much himself, so maybe things are turning for him.

Pedrosa had to ride with the problems caused by the Motegi crash which cost him dearly at Qatar - I think he had the pace to challenge Stoner for the win - and was still suffering from it at Jerez so I don't think he could be described as 'lucky'! Both rides were pretty heroic under the circumstances.
I don't think there's anything to separate Stoner, Lorenzo and Pedrosa for the title at this point - they are clearly the only contenders though, can't see anyone else winning a race.

Again, I find my poorly chosen words misconstrued!
What I meant was given the state of Dani's shoulder he was lucky the races weren't a few laps longer as he wouldn't of had the strenght to continue.
Therein lies his 'luck'.
I have never doubted Dani's heroism, only his 'luck'.
For future refrence if I place a word in 'singular speech marks' it generally suggests 'for want of a better word'.
At least you agreed with me on the there's nothing to separate them bit.

[Faster1]

30% If it weren't for Stoner's DNF, I'd stay he was the favorite, still the fastest.

Stoner was slower than Dani, Lorenzo and Simoncelli at Estoril. I don't see this great speed advantage that many others seem to see - the 'fastest man in motoGP' is currently 3rd fastest on a Honda!....equal title favourite with Pedrosa and Lorenzo though.

35% Pedrosa, while always fast, has yet to prove that he can get more than 2 or 3 great result in a row,

3rd, 2nd and 1st in the first three races is three great results in a row, even without the injury/surgery issues.

no disagreement of any of your accounts. It's just that we have only had one all out dry (and not really for the whole weekend) race to gauge ultimate performance. Sure night and rain races are part of the season, but they are impossible to predict (especially rain, except if you are one Chris Vermulin) and ultimately serve as a disruption of the pecking order.

I based my assessment on on Dani mostly on his last 3+ years where he has been his own biggest hurtle to a championship, not on a night race and an "everybody crash" rain race. I guess that I really meant wins when I wrote "great results". And when he crashes, he crashes good, which is to say he gets hurt enough to almost always miss future races.

And Stoner's consistent speed advantage is not yet really challenged on a consistent basis, A rain race and a night race are no indications of ultimate performance. It sure would have been great to be on our second dry race by now. The points totals would, for sure, be different.

Simoncelli needs to cross the finish line a few more times before I (and a few others) see him as anything more than the fastest crasher on the grid,, or the rider voted most likely to run out of fairings before the end of the season.

[phil]

3rd, 2nd and 1st in the first three races is three great results in a row, even without the injury/surgery issues.

But with the injury/surgery issues three great results in a row suggests good fortune. 'Luck' some may say...

The (only) good news is that this should be the closest championship in years,, where a DNF might be the deciding factor.

Paralleling 2006 the last year of the 990's...

[Oscar]

Without the Jerez incident, Stoner could, realistically, be probably 15 points closer to the front, making it very tight. Seems to me we've had three different types of wins coming from three remarkably closely-matched riders: Qatar, a win on outright speed, Jerez a win from smart riding and Estoril a win from absolute dogged determination.

If there's been any 'luck' factor involved, it's been somewhat a cancelling out of bad luck on Pedrosa's part - by which I mean that the cancellation of Motegi has at least given him a chance of not being further penalised by the rotten circumstances of his crash last year. Of the three reigning aliens, it's Stoner who could be forgiven for feeling that he has been a bit robbed, but the upside to that is that his 'WC-elect' status has been negated and I think his eventual finishing position in the WC this year will have to be accepted as earned, no matter what it may be. All in all, it's a pretty damn fascinating start to the season.