2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class

Who will win?

Rossi
2
5%
Lorenzo
5
12%
Spies
4
10%
Stoner
22
54%
Somincelli
5
12%
Pedrosa
3
7%
other
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 41

2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby CLX on Sun Jun 26, 2011 8:38 pm

I admit, I can hardly wait.

Rossi will get a second taste of the GP11.1
Spies will ride knowing he can push it on cold tyres and fight for the win.
Lorenzo will ride knowing the M1 remains an outright winner.
Stoner should be more at home without all the trouble of cold tyres.
Pedorsa will be back, but his overall form still remains in doubt.
Simoncelli will have another huge chance to get it right.
And Dovizioso, who has been in the points and off the radar, might suddenly find something else. Who knows?
Not to mention Cal. What might he be up to?


First GP : 1976
Length : 5245m
Longest Straight : 1141m
Rank: 1st Longest Straight
Lefts : 6
Rights : 9
Width : 14m
TimeZone : GMT+1
Wet Races: 10.0%



Image


Weather: http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/Italy/Mugello-Circuit.aspx
Current Track Conditions: http://www.myweather2.com/activity/hourimage.aspx?tagid=20101704061205&id=42127
Google Earth File: http://www.mototheory.com/kmz/Mugello.kmz



Results by Season:
>
 Rider Last  2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001  2000 
 Aoyama  11  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Barbera  12  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Bautista  14  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Capirossi  10  5  7  7  2  3  8  2  6  2  1 
 DePuniet  6  8  0  0  13  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Dovizioso  3  4  8  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Edwards  13  6  5  12  12  9  12  9  X  X  X 
 Elias  X  14  12  6  7  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Hayden  0  12  13  10  3  6  0  12  X  X  X 
 Hopkins  X  X  0  5  10  11  X  0  12  X  X 
 Lorenzo  2  2  0  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Pedrosa  1  0  3  2  4  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Rossi  X  3  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  0  12 
 Simoncelli  9  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Spies  7  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X  X 
 Stoner  4  1  2  4  0  X  X  X  X  X  X 



Rider Averages
>
 AVG Finish  Rider  Finishes  Crashes  Entries 
 2.0  Lorenzo  2  1  3 
 2.4  Rossi  9  2  10 
 2.5  Pedrosa  4  1  5 
 2.8  Stoner  4  1  5 
 5.0  Dovizioso  3  0  3 
 5.2  Capirossi  12  0  13 
 7.0  Spies  1  0  1 
 9.0  Simoncelli  1  0  1 
 9.0  DePuniet  3  2  5 
 9.3  Hayden  6  2  8 
 9.5  Hopkins  4  2  6 
 9.8  Edwards  8  0  8 
 9.8  Elias  4  0  4 
 11.0  Aoyama  1  0  1 
 12.0  Barbera  1  0  1 
 14.0  Bautista  1  0  1 



Top 20 All Time
>
 AVG Finish  Rider  Finishes  Crashes  Entries 
 1.4  Doohan, M.  8  0  8 
 2.0  Schwantz, K.  4  0  4 
 2.0  Lorenzo, J.  2  1  3 
 2.0  Rainey, W.  2  0  3 
 2.4  Rossi, V.  9  2  10 
 2.5  Pedrosa, D.  4  1  5 
 2.8  Stoner, C.  4  1  5 
 3.3  Biaggi, M.  8  1  8 
 3.9  Criville, A.  7  1  10 
 4.0  Gardner, W.  1  0  2 
 4.6  Beattie, D.  5  0  5 
 5.0  Dovizioso, A.  3  0  3 
 5.2  Capirossi, L.  12  0  13 
 5.3  Ukawa, T.  3  0  3 
 5.3  Ito, S.  4  0  4 
 5.5  Kocinski, J.  4  0  5 
 5.7  Cadalora, L.  6  0  6 
 5.8  Barros, A.  12  3  15 
 6.3  Puig, A.  3  0  4 
 6.4  Checa, C.  7  2  11 

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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Squidpuppet on Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:34 pm

I am eager to see how this win will affect Bens head. I am hopeful that the boost will translate directly into more confidence/aggression on the track.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Gustav O on Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:41 pm

Squidpuppet wrote:I am eager to see how this win will affect Bens head. I am hopeful that the boost will translate directly into more confidence/aggression on the track.

Me too. If he has his head screwed on right from now on he will win at least one more this year and podium more regular.

I hope Lorenzo can bounce back and tighten the championship race though.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby CLX on Mon Jun 27, 2011 12:22 am

I agree. It has always seemed what he lacked was the confidence to go ten tenths on the opening laps. If he has finally found out how to do it, we're looking at a robot ammong the aliens. (I refuse to call him an alien)

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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby OZintheDesert on Mon Jun 27, 2011 2:36 am

Forgive my scepticism but Ben was, you could say, almost gifted Assen. I some how doubt one win will turn him into the Extra terrestrial rider you all seem to long for. His results this year speak for themselves and he is on a championship winning bike alongside the WC, who barring some bad luck would have taken it to him and not have ceded as many points in the championship. Stoner played the long game there..

At Mugello it will be business as usual..
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby tom on Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:13 am

OZintheDesert wrote:Forgive my scepticism but Ben was, you could say, almost gifted Assen. I some how doubt one win will turn him into the Extra terrestrial rider you all seem to long for. His results this year speak for themselves and he is on a championship winning bike alongside the WC, who barring some bad luck would have taken it to him and not have ceded as many points in the championship. Stoner played the long game there..

At Mugello it will be business as usual..


You might be right but Ben's fastest lap was 0.2 faster than Casey's and 0.4 faster than Lorenzo's. While you could argue that Casey was not taking any risks it could also be argued that Spies was just managing a lead and had more left in the tank. Lorenzo seemed to be pushing it as much as he dared to salvage as many points as possible.

I'm sure all 3 of them played an intelligent race keeping a margin for error in conditions like that. But I do agree one season not to mention just one race in my book doesn't an alien make... or even a robot.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby CLX on Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:30 am

Robot, yeah.
Some guys go from strength to strength after getting the first win monkey off their backs. Some don't. Hopefully Spies will be ammong the first group.

Last year he was only 7th, I guess we can all expect a lot more now.

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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby OZintheDesert on Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:36 am

I don't disagree tom that he was managing the lead, but without the crash there would not have been a lead to manage is my point. As for the 0.2 faster lap time thats a one off lap. Look at lap times across the broader context and its a slightly different story.

Not taking his win away from him, first man across the line = winner in my books., just saying that this cannot be viewed as any more than a one off until he has shown far more consistency than the languished praise that has been heaped on him suggests.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Rusty Bucket USA on Mon Jun 27, 2011 4:51 am

OZintheDesert wrote:Forgive my scepticism but Ben was, you could say, almost gifted Assen...

This should pretty much be debate for the Assen Race thread, but if by "gifted" you mean: ideal weather for his riding style, then you may have a fair point. He was at the front enough during practice to establish that his race pace wasn't a fluke. What was interesting is the gap to Stoner; because Stoner could not catch him with superior pace, I'd say it was all on the up-and-up.

Back on topic (more or less), IIRC, Assen was the first track thrice raced by Spies. Mugello will not be one of those.

Look for temperature (especially, track temp) to be the only determining variable for the weekend: higher temps mean Ducatis are faster and there will be fewer complaints about the tires, colder temps would mean the opposite of both.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Oscar on Mon Jun 27, 2011 1:02 pm

I believe that the weight of expectations on the Rossi/Ducati combination for Mugello could not be heavier. Ducati have thrown absolutely everything they have in the larder for this one and Rossi must surely be feeling that his reputation (at least with his home crowd) is very much at stake.

TBH, I'm not sure whether there hasn't been something of a miscalculation by Ducati - in particular - in setting themselves up in the way they have. I want to see Stoner take another win but I will cheerfully admit to a very considerable thrill if Ducati and Rossi can make some sort of fairytale reversal of fortune. If they do, though, I think it won't be any sort of settling of the 'Rossi vs. Stoner on the Ducati' story - I think that one is now dead. However, it just could be the start of a 'new' chapter in the Rossi history, with what has transpired up to now being somewhat of a nightmare from which they have finally escaped.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Tourn46 on Mon Jun 27, 2011 1:41 pm

Oscar wrote:Rossi must surely be feeling that his reputation (at least with his home crowd) is very much at stake.


I'm not sure I fully agree with this, I will support him regardless of his result and I'm not even Italian. Sure, there will be some fickle fans, but generally, I think Rossi has and will always have an enormous fan base until he retires, especially in Italy - who else will they be cheering on?

Stoner hasn't won a Championship since 2007 and you still support him don't you, over the last few years I'm sure you haven't abandoned your post due to a period with no success?
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby ian606 on Mon Jun 27, 2011 2:45 pm

I don't see this as a Rossi do or die moment. His reputation etc isn't in question. The history books have seen to that. Pressure yes, no more than that.
Spies - Assen gift, your "Assen" a laugh. Arguably, based on lap times and previous track knowledge/results I would have said it was Spies or Simoncelli all the way for that win and Spies managed the Stoner gap with no problems.
I'd love a battle of the Honda's with a dash of red and red/blue/white (or whatever Yamaha decides to pick) thrown in .
I think this race in particular will be a calendar highlight. I can't predict a winner from the top 5 current riders(the 5th being Spies IMHO).

Thankfully, the championship looks like a lose but the individual races over the coming weeks look to be TRUE deliverables in terms of the fan's enjoyment.
Power alone will not determine the result, I hope!. This has often proved the case before at Mugello. Likewise it is possible that we may even get a 3rd manufacturer battling it out at the front in the guise of Rossi/Ducati.

I would dearly love a close battle, OK the front guy may get a unassailable lead but the chasing pack will hopefully bring some entertainment. I'm praying for good weather and close groups ignoring that nagging feeling that I'm going to be dissapointed again with a few close laps and then a parade of lap times and gaps throughout the tiny field, zzzzzzzz.

On paper it looks good, fingers crossed the weather keeps a lid on it as well as some certain individuals with scraggly hair.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby TwoStroke Institute on Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:28 pm

Oscar wrote:I believe that the weight of expectations on the Rossi/Ducati combination for Mugello could not be heavier. Ducati have thrown absolutely everything they have in the larder for this one and Rossi must surely be feeling that his reputation (at least with his home crowd) is very much at stake.
However, it just could be the start of a 'new' chapter in the Rossi history, with what has transpired up to now being somewhat of a nightmare from which they have finally escaped.


Don't think they are out of the woods yet, as in GPweek Rossi has come out some refreshing 'spin free' candor with saying "but it looks like I don't understand how to ride this bike to the maxiumum and how to set it to ride with a good feeling". Pressure would be immense on the team and Ducati, something Rossi would no doubt feel as well.Problem Ducati has now is they need hot weather for the tyres to heat up, but everyone else is on the same tyre. I'm thinking there could be a serious 'monday morning' meeting at Ducati Corse.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby coyote on Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:31 pm

OZintheDesert wrote: I don't disagree tom that he was managing the lead, but without the crash there would not have been a lead to manage is my point. As for the 0.2 faster lap time thats a one off lap. Look at lap times across the broader context and its a slightly different story.


Yes there would have, Stoner was 2.4 behind after the first sector in third place, after that Spies increased that gap to 4.2 after lap 3, probably bc Stoner's lack of confidence that he stated. Without the crash Stoner would probably have been in 6th after the first sector, so it's safe to say he never had a chance against Spies in that race.

As to the race, somehow I feel Lorenzo will come back with a vengeance to win the race. Yamaha has been pretty competitive there before and looked good in Assen so he has to mount a challenge to Stoner from here.

I'll be happy if after a dry weekend Rossi can be at most 10 seconds behind the winner after the race. If there are 4 Hondas and 2 Yamahas that can squeeze themselves in that gap so be it.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby CLX on Mon Jun 27, 2011 4:40 pm

Tourn46 wrote:
Oscar wrote:Rossi must surely be feeling that his reputation (at least with his home crowd) is very much at stake.

Stoner hasn't won a Championship since 2007 and you still support him don't you, over the last few years I'm sure you haven't abandoned your post due to a period with no success?


Stoner hasn't won the title, but he has been leaps and bounds ahead of all his teammates. Having VR and JB getting into so much trouble to make the Ducati work just adds a new perspective to his past achievements.

IMO, it is not Rossi's reputation that is at rick, but the future prospects for Ducati and him.

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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Dayle88 on Mon Jun 27, 2011 4:47 pm

I agree with you CLX, his reputation and achievements will never go because he has earnt them and they are in the history books for everyone to see. Its just wether he can continue in the same vein with Ducati. I personally think he can, I just dont know when. I'd predicted around round 5 or 6 he'd be getting much closer. I based that on how long it took him to win on Bridgestones in 2008 (being the last time we've seen him adapt to something new.) Clearly I've been wrong.

I understand the talk about Rossi/Ducati pulling out all the stops for Mugello. I personally cant believe they would be short sighted enough to roll the GP11.1 out for hope of success at one track. Its important, but not more important than long term success.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby coyote on Mon Jun 27, 2011 5:18 pm

CLX wrote: Stoner hasn't won the title, but he has been leaps and bounds ahead of all his teammates.


I recommend you to watch the dry races of this year and focus on the gap between Rossi and next Ducati.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Squidpuppet on Mon Jun 27, 2011 8:32 pm

Gustav O wrote:
Squidpuppet wrote:I am eager to see how this win will affect Bens head. I am hopeful that the boost will translate directly into more confidence/aggression on the track.

Me too. If he has his head screwed on right from now on he will win at least one more this year and podium more regular.

I hope Lorenzo can bounce back and tighten the championship race though.


What track do you suspect the win will occur at? I anticipate much aggression at Laguna. :)

If I were Stoner, defending a lead, one of my main strategies would be to avoid Simoncelli. Seriously. It has become a factor, like tires, or weather.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Squidpuppet on Mon Jun 27, 2011 8:37 pm

CLX wrote:I agree. It has always seemed what he lacked was the confidence to go ten tenths on the opening laps. If he has finally found out how to do it, we're looking at a robot ammong the aliens. (I refuse to call him an alien)


I think robot will be more fitting for Ben than alien. He already kinda has that aura.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Squidpuppet on Mon Jun 27, 2011 8:42 pm

OZintheDesert wrote:Forgive my scepticism but Ben was, you could say, almost gifted Assen. I some how doubt one win will turn him into the Extra terrestrial rider you all seem to long for. His results this year speak for themselves and he is on a championship winning bike alongside the WC, who barring some bad luck would have taken it to him and not have ceded as many points in the championship. Stoner played the long game there..

At Mugello it will be business as usual..


You could be right, for sure. But there comes a time in many careers where a "Turning Point" occurs. Something clicks and all the pieces come together. Ben MAY be on the cusp of this, or it MAY have just now taken hold, or, maybe not.

I vote against business as usual. :lol:
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby 9fingers on Mon Jun 27, 2011 9:02 pm

Squidpuppet wrote:
CLX wrote:I agree. It has always seemed what he lacked was the confidence to go ten tenths on the opening laps. If he has finally found out how to do it, we're looking at a robot ammong the aliens. (I refuse to call him an alien)


I think robot will be more fitting for Ben than alien. He already kinda has that aura.

Like a taller, luckier Pedrosa. Funny you choose this nickname, Spies' win reminded me of the way he takes the victory, on not so favorite machines.
I remember quite well Pedro's first victory in MotoGP, he looked like attending a funeral.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Squidpuppet on Mon Jun 27, 2011 9:03 pm

coyote wrote:
OZintheDesert wrote: I don't disagree tom that he was managing the lead, but without the crash there would not have been a lead to manage is my point. As for the 0.2 faster lap time thats a one off lap. Look at lap times across the broader context and its a slightly different story.


Yes there would have, Stoner was 2.4 behind after the first sector in third place, after that Spies increased that gap to 4.2 after lap 3, probably bc Stoner's lack of confidence that he stated. Without the crash Stoner would probably have been in 6th after the first sector, so it's safe to say he never had a chance against Spies in that race.


True. And without the crash, Casey would have had to deal with, and pass both Lorenzo and Simoncelli. Possible, you bet, but it would have cost him even more time.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Faster1 on Mon Jun 27, 2011 9:32 pm

and back on topic ;)

The long straight will erase any advantage that the Yamaha's would have earned in the twisty bits. A clean podium sweep for the Hondas. And I think that Rossi will rise to the occasion and have his best (timed) results yet. The stands will be overwhelmed with a sea of red and yellow complete with the stench of free Marlboros.
.



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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby ipso on Mon Jun 27, 2011 11:43 pm

So... Rossi and Hayden are the only ones to have any experience on the new Mugello surface. Like what, ~80 laps, but also having used the 11.1 chassis design during that test session.

But the track is supposedly very flat/even. Won’t that make it easier for others to dial it in quickly? How much of an advantage do you think the “2012” testing event gives the ‘works Ducati riders?

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Squidpuppet wrote:
CLX wrote:I agree. It has always seemed what he lacked was the confidence to go ten tenths on the opening laps. If he has finally found out how to do it, we're looking at a robot ammong the aliens. (I refuse to call him an alien)


I think robot will be more fitting for Ben than alien. He already kinda has that aura.

Like a taller, luckier Pedrosa. Funny you choose this nickname, Spies' win reminded me of the way he takes the victory, on not so favorite machines.
I remember quite well Pedro's first victory in MotoGP, he looked like attending a funeral.

Ben’s podium emotion reminds me of two things:

    The pressure was on. It was the last hole of the last round of a major PGA championship and Jack Nicklaus needed to sink a difficult 25 foot putt for the win, otherwise it would go into extra rounds. After a long look, he walked up and calmly sank the putt, and the crowd went bonkers, with people running up and congratulating him, and with chaos everywhere – he was dispassionate. A television interviewer came up to him and breathlessly asked “How come you had so little emotion after sinking that amazing putt?” His response:

    “I've never missed a putt in my mind.” - Jack Nicklaus

I’m also reminded of a football coach of mine – after one of our running backs went completely flip-dizzy celebrating in the end zone after a touchdown, the coach replied simply: “Act like you’ve been there before.”

It’s just a robot thing.
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Re: 2011 R8 Mugello Race Topic ** Spoilers**

Postby Squidpuppet on Mon Jun 27, 2011 11:57 pm

ipso wrote:
    The pressure was on. It was the last hole of the last round of a major PGA championship and Jack Nicklaus needed to sink a difficult 25 foot putt for the win, otherwise it would go into extra rounds. After a long look, he walked up and calmly sank the putt, and the crowd went bonkers, with people running up and congratulating him, and with chaos everywhere – he was dispassionate. A television interviewer came up to him and breathlessly asked “How come you had so little emotion after sinking that amazing putt?” His response:

    “I've never missed a putt in my mind.” - Jack Nicklaus

I’m also reminded of a football coach of mine – after one of our running backs went completely flip-dizzy celebrating in the end zone after a touchdown, the coach replied simply: “Act like you’ve been there before.”



I can relate. Not on the 25 foot putt, :oops: just the zone thing. Ever read The Inner Game of Tennis?
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