2012 MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 1 - Qatar

[Squidpuppet]

[.If he came out and said his tyres were too worn... that's giving a psychological advatage to the opposition.
.

You have this backwards Tourn. A bike or component failure does not give a psych advantage to your opponent. Blaming a your own body failing DOES.

Casey's bike looked like it was handling oddly because he was riding it completely differently in an effort to conserve his arm.

Tires were NOT an issue.

Stoner says...

The bike was working well for us, I definitely had the package and the pace to lead the field which was really positive. However, I suffered from really bad arm pump. After three or four laps I felt it but it gradually got worse, I tried to pull a little gap from Jorge and Dani and put in the minimal effort possible to retain the gap and try and win, but as the race continued it got worse and worse and eventually the muscles had nothing more to give. I couldn't hold onto the handle bars properly and it made things really difficult so it was a disappointing race for this reason, but for many other technical reasons it was very promising."

http://moto-racing.speedtv.com/article/ ... r-victory/

[Tourn46]

Tires were NOT an issue.

/shrug

Not my bet anyway.

[Gustav O]

I know, I know. I was hoping for the "Angry Kid" to make an apperance.

Any time I get a chance, even if begged.

[RatsMC]

This one is fairly easy to decide based on the notes.

However, the evidence supports Stoner's statements over any conjecture regarding tires. Stoner's times fell off very suddenly and if you look at that period of time, Stoner lost time to Lorenzo in the first 2 sectors but maintained earlier his pace in last two sectors. The first part of the track is hard on the brakes and harder on the wrists while the last sectors are not.

If tires were at issue, you would expect that Stoner's pace would drop more or less evenly in all sectors.

[Faster1]

If tires were at issue, you would expect that Stoner's pace would drop more or less evenly in all sectors.

No argument on your decision brotha, but I have to disagree with the last statement. different turns at different speeds, at different lean angles with different amounts of acceleration induce varying amounts of wheel spin. Some allow him to hang the back out and ride through it while others don't.

I still stand on : any given rider is not going to tell even a fraction of the truth at any given time as a response to a media question, and while some people don't give one crum of credit to Nick Harris, he has nothing to gain by mentioning (what was obvious to me too) over and over again that Stoners bike was visibly lose toward the later laps due to common tire wear visibly sliding more,, thus slowing down his lap times. I also studies the lap data on u-knowwho.com and there was a greater drop off from Stoner's peak than the steady Lorenzo. The "arm pump" was probably the result of wrestling with an excessively loose bike.

jeez peeps - since when is tire wear at the end of a race affecting different riders/bikes differently a nonexistent phenomenon.,, anyone see the king of "speed-n-fade" Toms Sykes lately? and there goes Carlos Checa aka Jorge Lorenzo for the win.

good thing I stayed away from that question

[RatsMC]

If tires were at issue, you would expect that Stoner's pace would drop more or less evenly in all sectors.

No argument on your decision brotha, but I have to disagree with the last statement. different turns at different speeds, at different lean angles with different amounts of acceleration induce varying amounts of wheel spin. Some allow him to hang the back out and ride through it while others don't.

I still stand on : any given rider is not going to tell even a fraction of the truth at any given time as a response to a media question, and while some people don't give one crum of credit to Nick Harris, he has nothing to gain by mentioning (what was obvious to me too) over and over again that Stoners bike was visibly lose toward the later laps due to common tire wear visibly sliding more,, thus slowing down his lap times. I also studies the lap data on u-knowwho.com and there was a greater drop off from Stoner's peak than the steady Lorenzo. The "arm pump" was probably the result of wrestling with an excessively loose bike.

jeez peeps - since when is tire wear at the end of a race affecting different riders/bikes differently a nonexistent phenomenon.,, anyone see the king of "speed-n-fade" Toms Sykes lately? and there goes Carlos Checa aka Jorge Lorenzo for the win.

good thing I stayed away from that question

The issue is that tire wear hasn't been a problem or even of any real importance for quite a while.

However, to you first point:tire wear will only induce wheel-spin in MotoGP if the electronics have failed or been turned way, way down. Stoner always rides with some amount of wheel spin but he decides how much and the electronics do not let it go over that. Whatever you saw was most likely the result of Stoner adjust his style to manage the arm pump.

And as to my statement: if tire wear is an issue, it will have an effect on all sectors of the track - I'll admit some more than others - but it will still influence sector times while arm pump may not affect all sectors in the same manner.

Basically, any evidence that tire wear play a role is matched with at least equal evidence that it wasn't and some other factor was in play.

[Oscar]

I re-watched the race last night, looking for certain things specifically.

Stoner's bike had a lot of chatter right from the off; almost every shot from bum-cam after he took the lead showed the bike going through a phase of chatter that would throw the camera off focus to the extent that the following bike (Lorenzo) would become a blur. If facing forward, you could see Stoner being shaken off the saddle in turns, his leg bouncing off the saddle three or four times in succession when the chatter hit. It obviously wasn't slowing him down much, but it would have exacerbated the need to hold on to the bars to keep his body position constant with the added load making the arm-pump worse. His body movements were noticeably less abrupt than usual, which has to mean he had adopted a smoother racing line. There is no logical reason to suspect that Stoner's own statement about the tyres is anything other than correct.

[tom]

The lap times show that none of the riders other than Stoner seemed to suffer a major drop off in performance later on in the race. Stoner's performance drop was explained by the chatter/hand pump issue. I see no reason to think that a rider like Stoner renowned for calling it like it is, isn't in fact doing just that. In the 500 and early 990 era's riders were more than happy to offer tyres going off as a reason for their position, or as a reason for a drop off in performance, it was in fact often seen as the 'excuse' of choice for a few. On the other hand it is not uncommon for riders in dominant positions to hide injury's or the extent of those injuries from their competitors, for fear of giving away a chink in the armour. To me tyre degradation was clearly not an issue.

I couldn't see Bridgestone producing a tyre that wouldn't with the aid of modern electronics and tyre management strategies, last race distance. It seemed like a good prediction to me seeing as it was counter to popular belief (I think). I narrowed it down to the podium placers as the press conference would be a quick and easy way of confirming or denying the prediction + it ruled out some of the lower teams or riders having a bad day with the electronics or the rider doing stupid on the opening laps and frying them.

[RatsMC]

The reason it was a good prediction (aside from those you've mentioned) is that some of us have been hoping to see tire management become a part of MotoGP again.

[tom]

The reason it was a good prediction (aside from those you've mentioned) is that some of us have been hoping to see tire management become a part of MotoGP again.

It really would be great to see a race like this one every round. During the race, despite really wanting Casey to win, I was really digging the fact that the race lasted 20 odd laps as opposed to the normal 4. Without the arm pump though it would have been over on lap 3

[RatsMC]

Final Outcomes:

These will stand unless there is a protest lodged.

>

ID	Prediction	Outcome
911	Crutchlow will score more points than Rossi	For
912	Karel Abraham secures more points than all the CRT teams combined	Against
913	Casey Stoner will do a stand-up wheelie before or after the start finish (but on the straight) at the end of the race	Against
915	Lorenzo will race with a harder compound rear tire than Spies	Against
916	Spies will beat Lorenzo	Against
917	Bradl will be the first non-factory rider to the flag	Against
918	Casey Stoner will Talk About Ally (his daughter) in post race conference	Against
919	Stoner to NOT win	For
920	RDP to finish ahead of any 2 satellite bikes	Against
921	Randy DePuniet will crash during the Qatar race	Against
922	Tino 46 will finish better than 7th this year at Qatar	Against
923	Tyre degradation will not be a deciding factor in any of the top 3 placings	For
928	Bautista top 5 finish	Against
929	Rossi will finish further from the winner than he did in 2011 (+16.431) DNF seen as further behind than 2011	For
924	Hayden to finish behind Rossi	Against
925	At least one CRT gets lapped*	Against
926	Bautista finishes higher than Dovi	Against
927	top three finishing order determined by lap 5	Against

Results will be announced shortly so if you have an issue with the outcomes as listed make it soon.

[Zaphod]

Stoner says...

The bike was working well for us, I definitely had the package and the pace to lead the field which was really positive. However, I suffered from really bad arm pump. After three or four laps I felt it but it gradually got worse, I tried to pull a little gap from Jorge and Dani and put in the minimal effort possible to retain the gap and try and win, but as the race continued it got worse and worse and eventually the muscles had nothing more to give. I couldn't hold onto the handle bars properly and it made things really difficult so it was a disappointing race for this reason, but for many other technical reasons it was very promising."

Please don't start with all the "are you calling him a liar"etc bullshit..............I am looking at numbers compared to statements, and including known admissions in regards to his preffeed electronic/TC set up, and merely asking questions in regard to what I see as the obvious conlclusion.

As Oscar stated, the thing was hardly a flash bit of kit coming off the turns, especially at Stoner pace, so arm pump is definately a factor.

He does however, by his own admission, run bugger all TC........not good for tyres that are going to wear with use.

The bike was moving around quite alot compared to JL and DP's machines who ran 56's all race.

Stoner say's he felt it coming on (the arm pump) by lap three or four, and tried to pull a gap where he could ease things off to a point of maintaining said gap.

His lap times indicate otherwise.

Rossi needs that front end feel, as he is a brake man (follow me here.....), Stoner is a throttle man, and a slider to boot. Great with last years and earlier tyres.

Minimum TC and a style that depends on him sliding the rear to get that extra bit over the others...not good on these tyres.......like the duck is bad for Rossi.........though not to that extent as Stoner will/would still match, or beat (fairly)consistently by a tenth, the times of others.

I say it was tyres by two thirds distance, and arm pump for the last 4 laps.

Easier to tell the oposition it is a physical issue that can be rectified, rather than a mechanical issue that is a result of your style.

If he told Lorenzo that, well..........Lorenzo only has to be behind him and keep pushing him into riding harder......

[RatsMC]

The first round of the 2012 Prediction contest has closed and the results were predictably unpredictable. Those of us who bet on the unpredictable knew exactly what was going to happen

The Scribe took this one almost entirely on Lorenzo's win while Joki3in1 took second on really good prediction bets. I managed third with a mix of both.


Round 1 Results:
>

Rank	Player	Score	Raw Score	Accuracy	Bonus	Race Winner	Total Score
10	The Scribe	324.97	26.65	50%	0	260.82	324.97
11	Joki3in1	274.16	199.16	100%	0	0	274.16
1	RatsMC	272.34	129.59	83%	0	80.25	272.34
28	Tourn46	234.55	159.55	100%	0	0	234.55
6	Gustav	203.18	120.19	57%	0	40.13	203.18
9	Desmo44	202.15	142.15	80%	0	0	202.15
27	Japhrodisiac	170.84	133.34	50%	0	0	170.84
20	SquidPuppet	162.26	106.01	75%	0	0	162.26
19	Cam D	162.19	44.44	50%	0	80.25	162.19
25	clifford-jr	159.86	74.73	60%	0	40.13	159.86
24	Tom	159.32	109.32	67%	0	0	159.32
15	Team Punkass	155.14	37.39	50%	0	80.25	155.14
21	Lebowski	155.00	117.50	50%	0	0	155.00
16	spinmaster	132.77	82.77	67%	0	0	132.77
7	RustyBucketUSA	127.50	82.50	60%	0	0	127.50
29	corinthian	117.26	79.76	50%	0	0	117.26
2	carty	113.26	75.76	50%	0	0	113.26
4	phil	105.74	48.64	33%	0	32.10	105.74
5	Pantah	100.96	43.40	50%	0	20.06	100.96
22	eddahenry	100.00	75.00	33%	0	0	100.00
8	motomania	98.33	60.83	50%	0	0	98.33
3	Faster1	88.89	63.89	33%	0	0	88.89
18	Kdubbs	86.13	63.63	30%	0	0	86.13
23	alto01	65.00	40.00	33%	0	0	65.00
13	Doca	63.86	41.36	30%	0	0	63.86
26	Nachlauf	50.60	29.17	29%	0	0	50.60
17	petercramm	27.99	17.27	14%	0	0	27.99
14	ieism	0.00	0.00	0%	0	0	0.00
12	bacalao	0.00	0.00	0%	0	0	0.00

[Desmo44]

I say it was tyres by two thirds distance, and arm pump for the last 4 laps.

All evidence including tire appearance, comments from all riders, teams and Bridgestone say that tire wear was not an issue with any rider, including Stoner.

[Squidpuppet]

[Stoner say's he felt it coming on (the arm pump) by lap three or four, and tried to pull a gap where he could ease things off to a point of maintaining said gap.

His lap times indicate otherwise..

To me it looks like his lap times indicate that strategy exactly. Fastest lap is number four, he then maintains low 56s to high 55s building his gap all the way until lap twelve, then backs off to the mid-high 56s for seven laps trying to chill out and maintain gap AND arms, then on lap 19 he can hear Jorge and his arm is toast.

[Squidpuppet]

Congrats to you fast dudes. Man, I have my work cut out for myself already. Scribe DOUBLED my haul.

[Gustav O]

Pantah - where are you?

[Tourn46]

I'm struggling to decide who had the best debut... me or Fenati...

[MPA]

I ended up much better than I thought but this #1 plate is slowing me down on acceleration We have a lot of work before Jerez, but if we can find the right setup I think we can run with the lead pack.

[Pantah]

Pantah - where are you?

Ahhhhhhh, the smart arse kid makes an appearance ....
I'm somewhere near the middle.......

[Gustav O]

Ahhhhhhh, the smart arse kid makes an appearance ....
I'm somewhere near the middle.......

I have a feeling I will have to regret this picture some day.

[Pantah]

Ahhhhhhh, the smart arse kid makes an appearance ....
I'm somewhere near the middle.......

I have a feeling I will have to regret this picture some day.

Maybe when I post it up after I beat you in the next round.......

[Gustav O]

Maybe when I post it up after I beat you in the next round.......

Very likely.

[ieism]

"This isn't the result I wanted!, zero points!
We ran out of hope last season, but nothing has changed from last year; actually things are worse.

It wouldn't have changed much to finish sixth. This certainly isn't an appealing result for me, and I'm aiming at least for the podium.

I have no confidence, and I can't even get ahead of Carty , who gave everything he had to finish 211 points behind the leader."

[Gustav O]

"This isn't the result I wanted!, zero points!
We ran out of hope last season, but nothing has changed from last year; actually things are worse.

It wouldn't have changed much to finish sixth. This certainly isn't an appealing result for me, and I'm aiming at least for the podium.

I have no confidence, and I can't even get ahead of Carty , who gave everything he had to finish 211 points behind the leader."

:lol