Silly season 2013

[CLX]

Obviously.
But putting Rossi on a Honda isn't an automatic title. He'd still have to beat Lorenzo and everyone else on Hondas and Yamahas.

[dave_m]

While I think Rossi on a satellite team with a factory spec bike could happen, I doubt we'll see him on a completely satellite spec bike. I doubt the Tech3 bikes are going to be as near the front next year, and the Honda satellite spec bikes haven't been competitive in a while. This season would have to go pretty far downhill for him want to leave Ducati that badly.

Lorenzo at Yamaha definitely has to be the odds on favorite for the title next year, and while Pedrosa is going to be on the podium, I just don't seem him winning the title. I'd say Rossi on a Honda would have a better chance than Dani, but I'm not sure there's anyone else who'll be have a better chance than Pedrosa on the Repsol team. Spies seems a little too erratic, Dovi already had his chance on the factory Honda and I'm not sure Crutchlow is faster than Dovi yet. Bautista is is faced with about the only downside to being Spanish in MotoGP with Pedrosa and Marquez ahead of him for the spot on the Repsol team and I have to think the Hayden/Pedrosa team just isn't going to happen at HRC.

[CLX]

Luthi, Espargaro and Ianonne.
What will they be up to in 2013?

[Nachlauf]

Does Honda want to win the title?

I'd think so. With Dani they have a good shot if he doesn't get injured. But Rossi would be a big gamble. Lorenzo has already shown that he is better than Rossi. So how is Rossi supposed to beat Lorenzo? That's only possible on a superior bike. But guess what would happen if Rossi were to win on a superior Honda. People would credit Rossi more than the bike. I doubt Honda would want that, again.

[GD66]

Plus he left on bad terms : Honda have to decide whether this outweighs the likelihood of him placing their bike at the front.
To lose some face and then have him blown off would be extremely unpalatable. I bet some wrist-wringing is going on in the boardrooms...

[ducati1098s]

How has Lorenzo demonstrated he is better than Rossi? 2009? Obviously not but they were very evenly matched. 2010? Rossi beat Lorenzo in race one then mashed his shoulder up. The rest of the season was spent with a Dr Costa misdiagnosis and then on top of that a busted leg

[TwoStroke Institute]

Surely not!




(Yes).

The joys of being a team owner, thought that might have been the case when the story ended abruptly after it 'leaked' out about the new stoppers. Always reminds me of seminal comedy/pisstake/satire Yes Minister, when the minister briefing a journo off the record was called an 'informed source'

[Nachlauf]

shoulder ... Dr Costa misdiagnosis ... leg

Excuses...

[dave_m]

But Rossi would be a big gamble. Lorenzo has already shown that he is better than Rossi. So how is Rossi supposed to beat Lorenzo?

I'm not sure how that doesn't also apply to Pedrosa, or the rest of the paddock.

[Squidpuppet]

Luthi, Espargaro and Ianonne.
What will they be up to in 2013?

Probably staying in Moto2. No vacancies occuring in MotoGP that I can see. Heck, finding a place for MM is becoming a task in itself.

[Squidpuppet]

I'd think so. With Dani they have a good shot if he doesn't get injured.

A shot? Yes. A good shot? I cant agree.

But Rossi would be a big gamble. Lorenzo has already shown that he is better than Rossi.

I think they were pretty evenly matched. They were duking it out before Rossi broke his leg, and again after it healed up. I would love to see them fighting on equal machinery, or at least machinery that allowed them both to perform to their best of their abilities.

[JanBros]

Rossi on a factory Honda isn't going to happen, it would give Honda less chances for the title, not more.

why ? I believe everybody will agree :to become WC in 2013, you will need to beat Lorenzo. Lorenzo won't have real competition within Yamaha, so HRC needs to beat just 1 guy.

Now IF Rossi would be as fast as Dani on the Honda (note the "big if" ,as I believe that is far from certain ) they would take points away from each other (only if both would be better than Jorge for most of the races, they could batle it out amongst them - again, something I don't believe will happen).

So IMHO Honda's best chance for the title in 2013, is to have a "slightly lesser than Pedrosa" team mate and just let Dani battle it out with Jorge. Maybe Dani is not evenly matched, but they'd be sure of every second place there is if Dani doesn't beat Jorge and hope for maybe 1/a couple more DNF's for Jorge. It certainly will be better than having to share 2nd and 3rd places between 2 riders.

[Squidpuppet]

Rossi on a factory Honda isn't going to happen, it would give Honda less chances for the title, not more.

I agree that Rossi wont get a factory Honda for 2013, but for different reasons. However, in an alternate universe ( ) where he did, I believe he would wipe the floor with Dani. He slaughtered the world when he was on the 211V. I know the 213 is a different beast, but I'd bet that he could come to grips with it.

[dave_m]

Rossi on a factory Honda isn't going to happen, it would give Honda less chances for the title, not more.

why ? I believe everybody will agree :to become WC in 2013, you will need to beat Lorenzo. Lorenzo won't have real competition within Yamaha, so HRC needs to beat just 1 guy.

Now IF Rossi would be as fast as Dani on the Honda (note the "big if" ,as I believe that is far from certain ) they would take points away from each other (only if both would be better than Jorge for most of the races, they could batle it out amongst them - again, something I don't believe will happen).

So IMHO Honda's best chance for the title in 2013, is to have a "slightly lesser than Pedrosa" team mate and just let Dani battle it out with Jorge. Maybe Dani is not evenly matched, but they'd be sure of every second place there is if Dani doesn't beat Jorge and hope for maybe 1/a couple more DNF's for Jorge. It certainly will be better than having to share 2nd and 3rd places between 2 riders.

This strategy doesn't exactly match with recent history though, as Honda signed Stoner to ride with Pedrosa and Yamaha signed Lorenzo to ride along Rossi. Even Ducati signed Melandri and Hayden to ride beside Stoner, and while it's obvious now that they weren't going to take points off Stoner, it was much less clear at the time. If Honda truly had this strategy, why would they have given factory support to Simoncelli for 2012, when he could take points off Stoner?

[tom]

This strategy doesn't exactly match with recent history though, as Honda signed Stoner to ride with Pedrosa and Yamaha signed Lorenzo to ride along Rossi. Even Ducati signed Melandri and Hayden to ride beside Stoner, and while it's obvious now that they weren't going to take point of Stoner, it was much less clear at the time. If Honda truly had this strategy, why would they have given factory support to Simoncelli for 2012, when he could take points off Stoner?

To true Dave, it always bugged me the 'two strong team mates takes points off each other' argument. On average they take just as much points off the other riders as they do themselves + you get the added advantage of them pushing each other on to new heights.

And another thing that bugs me a little (I'm getting cranky in my old age ), it the criticism Tech3 got for not providing their riders with the upgraded brakes. Seems to me that on average they have a fair gap forward to the factory teams and a fair gap behind to the other satellite teams so the extra 0.1 second a lap the upgraded brakes provide would be money waisted. Smart decision in my books.

[Cam D]

If it consistently makes .1 of a difference then it's worth every penny. Add to that the confidence it gives your rider when challenging for a pass, or even just knowing that you havee the latest gera. If it makes bugger all difference why did Cal bitch and moan to anyone with a pen and paper that he didn't have the new brakes? Psychology is such a bit part of a riders kit and any little boost can have a measurable gain in their performance.

[Hanuman]

To true Dave, it always bugged me the 'two strong team mates takes points off each other' argument. On average they take just as much points off the other riders as they do themselves + you get the added advantage of them pushing each other on to new heights.

And another thing that bugs me a little (I'm getting cranky in my old age ), it the criticism Tech3 got for not providing their riders with the upgraded brakes. Seems to me that on average they have a fair gap forward to the factory teams and a fair gap behind to the other satellite teams so the extra 0.1 second a lap the upgraded brakes provide would be money waisted. Smart decision in my books.

Yep, another example: 1989 - Honda: Lawson, Gardner, Doohan.
Putting your eggs in one basket doesn't seem the wisest choice, plus it provides a succession plan and it seems wiser to have as many strong riders on your own team than let them be on a rival's.

[dave_m]

A little more on why I think the factories are going to want the best riders they can get on their factory teams, rather than going for a single good rider and another to not take points from that rider. (This isn't to say Honda will sign Rossi to the Repsol team, just that Honda shouldn't be worried to sign Rossi because he might take points from Pedrosa and give the championship to Lorenzo.)

Injuries are common in this sport. Stoner in 2009, Rossi in 2010, Pedrosa in 2010 and 2011 and Lorenzo in 2011 all missed enough races to potentially affect the championship. I'm not saying any of them would have won the championship if healthy, just that having another rider capable of competing for the championship is a good strategy.

[lennyzrx]

interesting year for sure!

the 2nd factory yammi seat will be interesting. I don't see ben gettin that ride?

somehow I see Ben on a year off and headin back to Suzuki's new effort. Ben I'm sure is still tight with Yosh and Suzuki.

I'm think'n Cal on the other factory yammi? Dozi had his shot on factory bikes and proved little on Dani. I think Jarvis will take this into consideration. Cal's hungry and will take risks and push. Dovi, risk days are gone.

It sure looks to be an interesting silly season.

[Gar]

somehow I see Ben on a year off and headin back to Suzuki's new effort. Ben I'm sure is still tight with Yosh and Suzuki.

I can't picture that one at all, not that I have any great insight. Should Yamaha release him I believe he'll either be at Ducati (who are reported to have talked to both him and Crutchlow) or in WSBK.

I'm not totally convinced that Suzuki will be back in 2014, although I hope they are,

[tom]

If it consistently makes .1 of a difference then it's worth every penny. Add to that the confidence it gives your rider when challenging for a pass, or even just knowing that you havee the latest gera. If it makes bugger all difference why did Cal bitch and moan to anyone with a pen and paper that he didn't have the new brakes? Psychology is such a bit part of a riders kit and any little boost can have a measurable gain in their performance.

The lap time reduction it gives Tech3 is of no relevance to Tech3 unless it ratchets them up another place on the grid, which is all that really matters. The Tech3 boys fighting amongst themselves 0.6 seconds a lap off the factory Yamaha and Honda guys pace or a fraction closer at 0.5 seconds a lap off, is of little consequence to the team when their next closest rivals are another half a second back.

However it is of massive importance to either rider if the other has a 0.1 second a lap advantage. So for Tech3 I can understand their decision not to spend the dollars. For Dovi it was only smart if Carls supporters were not able to scrounge up the money to equip Carl. However, Carl now has his mitts on the upgraded stoppers so Dovi's advantage is nullified. Dovi out of pocket with no gain in the championship, Carl's supporters out of pocket just to get him back where he was (on equal equipment) and Tech3 in no different a position in regard to where they are going to sit at the end of the year on the championship ladder.

One winner though, a certain dominant brake manufacturer, who gained a nice wad of cash and heaps of publicity

[Cam D]

It makes enough difference to keep Tech3 riders in the hunt and pick up a podium when the others make a mistake. Dovi moved up a place and is four points ahead of Cal. Who knows how much difference the brakes make but a little bit here and a little bit there make your machinery more competitive. They may have been half a second of Jorge but so was nearly everyone else. If you need 60g's for fractions of seconds then cut back on some of the hospitality expenditure and put the money into getting better equipment. I realise sponsors pay for some of the equipment, but I bet they love to see podiums more than all the bs that that goes on at the back of the pits. Results come first, and I reckon Tech3 would be happy with the return for the dollars spent. jmo as always

[JanBros]

Putting your eggs in one basket doesn't seem the wisest choice, plus it provides a succession plan and it seems wiser to have as many strong riders on your own team than let them be on a rival's.

I agree, but not all situations are the same.

Why did Honda sign Stoner : probably because they agreed with me that Pedrosa is very good, but no exact match to Lorenzo. And something (possibly) better was available.

Is there something better available next year (and in which you don't need to swallow your pride) ? I don't thinck so. Rossi -allthough still very good one could/should presume, is on his way down curve. 2 years ago he was equal to Jorge, now I'm not so sure anymore. Next year, there won't be 4 aliens, not 3, not 2 but probably only 1.5 (that half being Pedrosa).

This strategy doesn't exactly match with recent history though, as Honda signed Stoner to ride with Pedrosa and Yamaha signed Lorenzo to ride along Rossi. Even Ducati signed Melandri and Hayden to ride beside Stoner, and while it's obvious now that they weren't going to take points off Stoner, it was much less clear at the time. If Honda truly had this strategy, why would they have given factory support to Simoncelli for 2012, when he could take points off Stoner?

when Yamaha signed Lorenzo, he was a rookie and no threat to Rossi
Ducati signed Melandri because at the time they thought they had a superior bike, not a superior rider.
Simo was only on his second year and on a factory bike, but still not a factory team. Still a small difference I believe.

Honda signed Stoner because he was available, and probably figured out how g(o)od he was, or at least wondered about t. Another reason : if they didn't ,maybe Yamaha would have, a risk they were not prepared to take ?

the succession plan is of no means next year, as everybody knows another plan is already on the table

[Grahluk]

shoulder ... Dr Costa misdiagnosis ... leg

Excuses...

How bout you snap your leg, mangle the soft tissue in your shoulder, & with very little recovery time have you compete in anything athletic let alone the top level of a sport against rivals who are your equal on a good day for several months on end?
Thought so.
Since we're talking GP champions instead of couch critics let's say Jorge or Casey were to encounter similar injuries (crosses self against the notion) say... this Saturday @ Silverstone. What odds would you put for the rest of either's season? I'd put about the same as VR's 2010 season.
Funny how the riders don't write each other off half as much as the critics & press.

[Emoo]

Ben leaving yam? If the factory needs another rider, past history suggests that the rider will be from Tech 3. If that was the case, you also have to throw in the Bradley Smith situation. He is apparently moving up to MotoGP with Tech 3, does it make sense for Herve to have two British riders? For commercial reasons I doubt it. So logic would dictate that Cal will move up however, I don't like to say it becuase I am a bit of a Cal fan, but I think Dovi will have the better points tally at the end of the season so on merit it should be Dovi.

Nevermind the MM debate, the Bradley Smith situation causes a minor headache for Herve and Yam, more so Herve because I really can not see Ben leaving the factory bike. Maybe Cal sees this too, which is why he stated that he would have a go at the Duc, but I'm going to throw something out there -

yam - JL and Ben
Tech 3 - Dovi and Bradley
Honda - Pedro and Cal (I know, I know - let me have it!)
Duc - Rossi and Hayden
LCR - Bradl
Gresini - MM and Pirro
Aviniti - silva and hernandez
came - petrucci
Cardion - Abraham
NGM - Colin and maybe, just maybe another
Paul Bird - Ellison? doubt it the tea mmight not even make it back
Power electronics - RDP and Espargaro
Pramac - Barbera
Speed master - pasini? depends on sponsorship
the big one - SUZUKI - Bautista

Heard it here first folks!