2010 MotoGP Prediction Contest - Phillip Island

[chakraist]

100 points on Casey to win. Even though I won't get much return, such is my confidence in him this weekend.

[The Scribe]

New prediction:

Rossi outside the podium --> 10 RPTS FOR

Such an impressive podium streak cannot last forever.

[Pantah]

As posted to Moto theory

591 10 Against
593 10 Against
596 10 Against
599 10 Against
600 20 For
601 20 Against
603 10 Against

[Squidpuppet]

My bets

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
592	No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5	10 points	Against
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	For
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	20 points	Against
595	At least one Ducati top 5 every session	10 points	For
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	20 points	Against
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	10 points	Against
603	Spies on podium	10 points	For

And 10 on 99 FTW

Fingers crossed for warfare.

[RatsMC]

My bets:

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	20 points	For
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	10 points	For
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	10 points	For
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	20 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	10 points	For

[motomania]

Mick's Picks >

ID	Prediction	Bet
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	20 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	20 points	Against
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	10 points	Against
603	Spies on podium	20 points	For

10 Rpts on Rossi to win
10 Rpts on Spies to win

[sir_nj]

Mick's Picks >

ID	Prediction	Bet
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	20 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	20 points	Against
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	10 points	Against
603	Spies on podium	20 points	For

10 Rpts on Rossi to win
10 Rpts on Spies to win

Mick, as I just placed my bets and then logged on here to post them I saw that you had just posted and I thought, hmmmm Motomania will bet on Spies. I will admit, the only reason I didn't bet on him was because I don't think he has the bike for it at the Island.

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	10 points	Against
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	10 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	20 points	Against
603	Spies on podium	15 points	Against
604	Rossi outside the podium	15 points	Against

10 each for the win on Stoner, Rossi and Lorenzo

and I see from Rat's bets that he pulled an all nighter again and was seeing double as he seems to have simply looked at the odds table and gone for the highest odds, go on tell me I'm wrong

[motomania]

:D Mick, as I just placed my bets and then logged on here to post them I saw that you had just posted and I thought, hmmmm Motomania will bet on Spies. I will admit, the only reason I didn't bet on him was because I don't think he has the bike for it at the Island.

He's yet to take the new updated motor with the extra "grunt", I think that will happen over the weekend and he'll be there battling for it this weekend. Between that and the fact that boys aren't apt to play together real well with the battle for the remaining places, especially third as well as bragging rights going out are going to mean one thing, bikes on their sides from battle. It may not be dirty but I'm sure it's going to be quite aggressive. I feel that plays into Ben's favor, we'll see.

[Squidpuppet]

Mick's Picks >

ID	Prediction	Bet
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	20 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	20 points	Against
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	10 points	Against
603	Spies on podium	20 points	For

10 Rpts on Rossi to win
10 Rpts on Spies to win

Are you anticipating a Jorge poor result or DNF? You have Rossi and Spies as possible winners, but NOT 3 Yams in the top 7. Whats the secret strategy here?

[sir_nj]

:D Mick, as I just placed my bets and then logged on here to post them I saw that you had just posted and I thought, hmmmm Motomania will bet on Spies. I will admit, the only reason I didn't bet on him was because I don't think he has the bike for it at the Island.

He's yet to take the new updated motor with the extra "grunt", I think that will happen over the weekend and he'll be there battling for it this weekend. Between that and the fact that boys aren't apt to play together real well with the battle for the remaining places, especially third as well as bragging rights going out are going to mean one thing, bikes on their sides from battle. It may not be dirty but I'm sure it's going to be quite aggressive. I feel that plays into Ben's favor, we'll see.

forgot about the motor mick , got to agree that Rossi and Lorenzo are about to start going at it now that the championship is not at stake and Rossi hasn't been given a green light to ride the Duc this side of Christmas. Spies won't be afraid to get in the middle of it and I suspect Stoner won't be particularly phased. That leaves Dovi, Pedrosa and Hayden. Pedrosa would be well advised to stay out of the bar when things get ugly. If Hayden is fast enough he would likely think it was good fun. Dovi? Nah, probably remember the braking duel he lost to Spies and prefer to capitalise on who gets punted off.

[Squidpuppet]

My bets:

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	20 points	For
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	10 points	For
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	10 points	For
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	20 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	10 points	For

Are you betting for the odds, or are those real pics?

Dani beating Dovi with that collarbone and Dovis recent form? Really? Ballsy Rats.

Stoner and Nicky consecutively? Well, as wildy unpredictable as they both have been, maybe thats a safe bet.

Now that the choke chain is off of Lorenzos neck, I am hoping for some more paint swapping.

[RatsMC]

and I see from Rat's bets that he pulled an all nighter again and was seeing double as he seems to have simply looked at the odds table and gone for the highest odds, go on tell me I'm wrong

I honestly have no feel whatsoever for this one so I picked those that seemed outrageous yet possible. I also tried to pick those that didn't rely on specific event ("rider X DNF's", etc.).

[RatsMC]

Are you betting for the odds, or are those real pics?

Dani beating Dovi with that collarbone and Dovis recent form? Really? Ballsy Rats.

Stoner and Nicky consecutively? Well, as wildy unpredictable as they both have been, maybe thats a safe bet.

My thougths are that we will see either Dovi or Spies up front but not both. I think it more likely to be Spies. I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for and has an opportunity to prove it. With both of those in mind plus the fact that PI isn't a hard braking track, I've got to put Pedrosa in front. He just needs to make it through turn 2 on the first lap.

Hayden and Stoner consecutive finishes was just me pulling something out of my ass. I needed a prediction in the database in order to test some formatting stuff. Rather than wit for someone to post something I came up with that. I do see it as a possibility though.

[Desmo44]

Throw caution to the wind... (and two safer bets)

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	5 points	For
592	No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5	5 points	For
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	20 points	Against
595	At least one Ducati top 5 every session	5 points	Against
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	5 points	For
597	At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race	5 points	For
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	5 points	Against
599	1 sec. cover top 10 in QP	20 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	5 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	5 points	For
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	5 points	For
603	Spies on podium	5 points	For
604	Rossi outside the podium	5 points	For

And Spies to win- 5pts

Now closing eyes with hands in prayer...

[Squidpuppet]

Are you betting for the odds, or are those real pics?

Dani beating Dovi with that collarbone and Dovis recent form? Really? Ballsy Rats.

Stoner and Nicky consecutively? Well, as wildy unpredictable as they both have been, maybe thats a safe bet.

My thougths are that we will see either Dovi or Spies up front but not both. I think it more likely to be Spies. I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for and has an opportunity to prove it. With both of those in mind plus the fact that PI isn't a hard braking track, I've got to put Pedrosa in front. He just needs to make it through turn 2 on the first lap.

Hayden and Stoner consecutive finishes was just me pulling something out of my ass. I needed a prediction in the database in order to test some formatting stuff. Rather than wit for someone to post something I came up with that. I do see it as a possibility though.

I am hopeful that Dani doesnt have any bad luck this race. I'd hate to see him on that thing so soon.

[ales17]

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
595	At least one Ducati top 5 every session	10 points	Against
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	10 points	For
599	1 sec. cover top 10 in QP	10 points	For
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	40 points	For
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	20 points	Against

And 10 on Lorenzo coz I hope he's hungry!

[friendofaduc]

My Bets

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
592	No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5	15 points	Against
595	At least one Ducati top 5 every session	10 points	For
599	1 sec. cover top 10 in QP	10 points	Against
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	10 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	25 points	Against
603	Spies on podium	10 points	Against
604	Rossi outside the podium	10 points	Against

And Rossi to win for 10

[RedJet]

I wanna play too!

I've not done this before, just registered on the betting site, but, I don't see these particular bets listed. I'm certain I'm missing something. I did see where I could place a bet for the winner but not for what is listed below. May I just use this and put in my points and for or against? Then you can chastise me for my lack of gambling savvy afterward - which there will be plenty to chastise about, I promise.

591 Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.) 10pts AGAINST
592 No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5 10pts AGAINST
595 At least one Ducati top 5 every session 10pts FOR
597 At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race 10pts FOR
598 3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race 10pts FOR
600 Hayden to finish outside the top 5 10pts FOR
601 Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso 10pts FOR
602 Three brands in the top 3 race 10pts AGAINST
603 Spies on podium 10pts FOR
604 Rossi outside the podium 10pts AGAINST

Let me know if I need to fix and/or do something else. I'm nervous! All I want is Spies to win and Dani not to crash.

[RatsMC]

It looks like you got it. I can see you in the database.

If you want to try again, you can place your bets here: http://mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/place-your-bets.

If you aren't able to get to that or make it work, I'll place your bets for your.

Welcome and good luck!

[RedJet]

It looks like you got it. I can see you in the database.

If you want to try again, you can place your bets here: http://mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/place-your-bets.

If you aren't able to get to that or make it work, I'll place your bets for your.

Welcome and good luck!

Thanks Rats!

I think I did it. I inputted all the info but I don't see a list of my bets.

No, wait...
I refreshed after a couple of minutes. Here they are!

D Prediction Bet
591 Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.) 10pts Against
592 No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5 10pts Against
595 At least one Ducati top 5 every session 10pts For
597 At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race 10pts For
598 3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race 10pts For
600 Hayden to finish outside the top 5 10pts For
601 Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso 10pts For
602 Three brands in the top 3 (race 10pts Against
603 Spies on podium 10pts For
604 Rossi outside the podium 10pts For

[Rusty Bucket USA]

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	15 points	For
592	No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5	15 points	Against
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	15 points	For
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	15 points	Against
599	1 sec. cover top 10 in QP	10 points	For
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	15 points	Against

[RatsMC]

Thanks Rats!

I think I did it. I inputted all the info but I don't see a list of my bets.

No, wait...
I refreshed after a couple of minutes. Here they are!

D Prediction Bet
591 Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.) 10pts Against
592 No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5 10pts Against
595 At least one Ducati top 5 every session 10pts For
597 At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race 10pts For
598 3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race 10pts For
600 Hayden to finish outside the top 5 10pts For
601 Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso 10pts For
602 Three brands in the top 3 (race 10pts Against
603 Spies on podium 10pts For
604 Rossi outside the podium 10pts For

Yep. I see it there. Everything looks good.

[RatsMC]

Final Odds


*Accurate at the time posted. Any bets placed after this is posted will change the odds. Please check here for up-to-date odds.



Challenged Predictions
>

ID	Prediction	Odds For	Odds Against
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	4.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
592	No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5	4.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	2.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
599	1 sec. cover top 10 in QP	3.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
595	At least one Ducati top 5 every session	1.2 to 1	7.0 to 1
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	2.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
597	At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race	3.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	1.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	1.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	3.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	2.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
603	Spies on podium	2.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
604	Rossi outside the podium	2.8 to 1	1.6 to 1

Race Winner Odds
>

Rider	Total Bet	Odds
Stoner	170	2.47 to 1
Rossi	100	4.20 to 1
Dovizioso	77	5.45 to 1
Lorenzo	47	8.94 to 1
Spies	21	20.00 to 1
Pedrosa	5	84.00 to 1
Simoncelli	0	420.00 to 1
Bautista	0	420.00 to 1
Espargaro	0	420.00 to 1
Edwards	0	420.00 to 1
Capirossi	0	420.00 to 1
Hayden	0	420.00 to 1
Barbera	0	420.00 to 1
Aoyama	0	420.00 to 1
Kallio	0	420.00 to 1
DePuniet	0	420.00 to 1
Melandri	0	420.00 to 1

Good luck everyone.

[The Scribe]

My bets:

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	20 points	Against
597	At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race	10 points	Against
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	10 points	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	10 points	For
603	Spies on podium	10 points	Against
604	Rossi outside the podium	10 points	For

Plus some points on different riders for the win, including Rossi (just to show how consistent I am) and Pedrosa (it would be a miracle given his past here and his collarbone, but a miracle that would make me rich). In any case, I don´t have a good feeling about this betting round.

I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for

I'd say he is tough too, is he generally considered the opposite? It is curious how perceptions about riders change so much depending on the country.

[RatsMC]

I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for

I'd say he is tough too, is he generally considered the opposite? It is curious how perceptions about riders change so much depending on the country.

I think that many commentators believe he is fragile because he is so small. I'm not sure it is an English-speaking fan thing but it is being fed to us by commentators.