2010 MotoGP Prediction Contest - Phillip Island

[The Scribe]

I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for

I'd say he is tough too, is he generally considered the opposite? It is curious how perceptions about riders change so much depending on the country.

I think that many commentators believe he is fragile because he is so small. I'm not sure it is an English-speaking fan thing but it is being fed to us by commentators.

I guess our Spanish commentators just feed us on how tough he is for riding in such conditions (I recall Sepang '06, for example). At least, they praise all the other riders doing the same (Rossi, RdP, JLo).

I'd say he is fragile in the sense of prone to injury, but tough for riding in pain.

[Kropotkin]

I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for

I'd say he is tough too, is he generally considered the opposite? It is curious how perceptions about riders change so much depending on the country.

He's considered a little fragile, because of the injuries he has suffered during his career. He's not had a lot of luck with injuries in the past.

[The Scribe]

I also have a belief that Perosa is tougher than he's given credit for

I'd say he is tough too, is he generally considered the opposite? It is curious how perceptions about riders change so much depending on the country.

He's considered a little fragile, because of the injuries he has suffered during his career. He's not had a lot of luck with injuries in the past.

OK, I think this is agreed everywhere, even here in Spain where spanish riders are considered flawless demigods (by the media, not the fans). I thought Rats was referring to Pedrosa not being tough in the sense of not able to ride in pain.

[Gustav O]

Pedrosa apparently breaks quite easily but he is tough as nails and rides fast with injuries so I guess we can say the flesh is weak but the will is strong.

[phil]

Pedrosa apparently breaks quite easily but he is tough as nails and rides fast with injuries so I guess we can say the flesh is weak but the will is strong.

One of Lucy's poetic slur's always sticks in my mind (beit fact or otherwise..)...
Something along the lines of "Pedrosa's bone density is akin to that of a nightingale."

[RatsMC]

OK, I think this is agreed everywhere, even here in Spain where spanish riders are considered flawless demigods (by the media, not the fans). I thought Rats was referring to Pedrosa not being tough in the sense of not able to ride in pain.

I was more getting at the perception of how tough he is post-injury. I don't think there is a strong belief that he is somehow a wimp but he doesn't have the reputation that Lorenzo or De Puniet have. Probably not fair but we don't really get a lot of insight into Pedrosa in the way we do Lorenzo or RdP.

[motomania]

I think that many commentators believe he is fragile because he is so small. I'm not sure it is an English-speaking fan thing but it is being fed to us by commentators.

I think that's because every year Dani gets hurt and has to heal. It does seem to me that he breaks more bones than other riders tend to but I've got no stats to actually back up my opinion. I feel it's one of the reasons that he's not been able to truly contend for a MotoGP championship.

[RatsMC]

I think that many commentators believe he is fragile because he is so small. I'm not sure it is an English-speaking fan thing but it is being fed to us by commentators.

I think that's because every year Dani gets hurt and has to heal. It does seem to me that he breaks more bones than other riders tend to but I've got no stats to actually back up my opinion. I feel it's one of the reasons that he's not been able to truly contend for a MotoGP championship.

You are right. I think I was kind of missing my own point. I was really getting at his ability to get back on the bike and that commentators seem to equate how easily he breaks with his willingness to ride hurt.

[RedJet]

I have a feeling my maiden foray into the contest is going to suck big donkey eggs.

Just sayin'

[Rusty Bucket USA]

New prediction:
- 1 sec. cover top 10 in QP --> 10 for

Imagine if you had said "1 sec to cover the front row in QP", and we would still have lost!!!

[Oscar]

I never make RatsPoint predictions because anything I bet on breaks a leg, falls under a bus or is hit by a comet or something similar - but I reckon that if Stoner throws off his 'I'm going to Honda, why bother?' mindset, he could still be competitive this season.

[RatsMC]

I have a feeling my maiden foray into the contest is going to suck big donkey eggs.

Just sayin'

Can't be much worse than my round.

[motomania]

I have a feeling my maiden foray into the contest is going to suck big donkey eggs.

Just sayin'

Welcome to my world, I'm cruisin' high with top 5's the last 2 rounds but expect that I'll be back around 25th or so soon, as is normal for me this season. I'm not real confident in several of mine at this point.

[Squidpuppet]

Whats the scoop here Rats?

[RatsMC]

It takes a litle while to get the outcomes entered. Mondays after a race are always a bit hectic as I have to update the prediction contest as well as input all of the race results into the database.

I'll have the outcomes posted very soon.

[RatsMC]

Provisional Outcomes:

>

ID	Prediction	Outcome
591	Hayden and Stoner finish in consecutive order (1-2, 5-6, etc.)	Against
592	No factory teams will have both riders in the top 5	Against
593	Melandri bests the other Marco	Against
599	1 sec. cover top 10 in QP	Against
595	At least one Ducati top 5 every session	For
596	Yamaha outside top 3 at least one session	Against
597	At least 3 Honda's outside top 10 in race	Against
598	3 Yamaha's in top 7 in race	For
600	Hayden to finish outside the top 5	Against
601	Pedrosa finishes in front of Dovizioso	Against
602	Three brands in the top 3 (race	Against
603	Spies on podium	Against
604	Rossi outside the podium	Against

Let me know if I missed anything.



Looks like just about anyone making a prediction this round got killed

[Squidpuppet]

It takes a litle while to get the outcomes entered. Mondays after a race are always a bit hectic as I have to update the prediction contest as well as input all of the race results into the database.

I'll have the outcomes posted very soon.

I apologize Rats. I had a brainfart and was sitting here thinking it was Tuesday. Didnt mean to be pushy, and thanks.

[MPA]

I wish it was Tuesday - the closer to Friday, the better


lots of "Against" outcomes.

[RatsMC]

Well, chakraist spanked us again. This is turning into quite a run. Just a single bet on race winner put him at the top. bacalao, follows with pure prediction bets and MPA stands on the podium once again.

Great job gentlemen.

Round Results: >

Rank	Player	Score	Raw Score	Accuracy	Bonus	Race Winner	Total Score
1	chakraist	247.06	0.00	0%	0	247.06	1969.03
2	bacalao	224.74	149.74	100%	0	0	2715.57
3	Team Punkass	219.15	144.15	100%	0	0	2471.77
4	friendofaduc	214.20	139.20	100%	0	0	1976.50
5	sir_nj	205.97	106.26	100%	0	24.71	2424.82
6	Harumph	200.96	125.96	100%	0	0	2576.87
7	carty	200.00	125.00	100%	0	0	1565.56
8	Pantah	194.19	105.20	86%	0	24.71	2134.63
9	SquidPuppet	177.90	113.62	86%	0	0	1788.16
10	Joki3in1	160.17	103.92	75%	0	0	2609.00
11	petercramm	157.56	88.96	75%	0	12.35	1686.40
12	phil	141.66	88.09	71%	0	0	2238.51
13	motomania	140.57	95.57	60%	0	0	1427.26
14	Faster1	123.55	44.14	40%	0	49.41	2100.50
15	RustyBucketUSA	119.56	57.50	33%	0	37.06	1865.60
16	OZintheDesert	115.05	60.34	40%	0	24.71	1294.57
17	Redjet	108.50	71.00	50%	0	0	108.50
18	The Scribe	99.68	62.18	50%	0	0	1841.36
19	Desmo44	90.29	72.98	23%	0	0	1778.55
20	RatsMC	62.50	50.00	17%	0	0	1818.26
21	Cam D	48.33	33.33	20%	0	0	373.20
22	ales17	47.86	32.86	20%	0	0	2085.22
23	davidewright	0.00	0.00	0%	0	0	665.62

Section Standings:
>

Rank	Player	Section Score	Total Points
1	Team Punkass	765.27	2471.77
2	motomania	529.31	1427.26
3	carty	485.95	1565.56
4	Joki3in1	481.28	2609.00
5	friendofaduc	470.71	1976.50
6	The Scribe	461.43	1841.36
7	Pantah	443.50	2134.63
8	RustyBucketUSA	406.95	1865.60
9	bacalao	399.54	2715.57
10	ales17	384.43	2085.22
11	petercramm	381.17	1686.40
12	SquidPuppet	377.99	1788.16
13	phil	371.87	2238.51
14	sir_nj	366.09	2424.82
15	600ccs	364.83	1540.79
16	chakraist	364.54	1969.03
17	OZintheDesert	338.37	1294.57
18	Harumph	336.21	2576.87
19	RatsMC	327.52	1818.26
20	Desmo44	322.16	1778.55
21	Faster1	308.41	2100.50
22	banda	254.89	2131.18
23	Mancation	223.37	975.78
24	Liv	138.05	1619.26
25	Redjet	108.50	108.50
26	spinmaster	78.32	1661.62
27	Cam D	48.33	373.20

Season Standings:
>

Rank	Player	Total Points	Gap
1	bacalao	2715.57	0
2	Joki3in1	2609.00	107
3	Harumph	2576.87	139
4	Team Punkass	2471.77	244
5	sir_nj	2424.82	291
6	phil	2238.51	477
7	Pantah	2134.63	581
8	banda	2131.18	584
9	Faster1	2100.50	615
10	ales17	2085.22	630
11	friendofaduc	1976.50	739
12	chakraist	1969.03	747
13	RustyBucketUSA	1865.60	850
14	The Scribe	1841.36	874
15	Texas Triple	1840.57	875
16	RatsMC	1818.26	897
17	SquidPuppet	1788.16	927
18	Desmo44	1778.55	937
19	Kdubbs	1729.82	986
20	petercramm	1686.40	1029
21	spinmaster	1661.62	1054
22	Liv	1619.26	1096
23	carty	1565.56	1150
24	600ccs	1540.79	1175
25	motomania	1427.26	1288
26	ieism	1306.31	1409
27	OZintheDesert	1294.57	1421
28	Raisenberry777	1263.70	1452
29	Powervalve	996.63	1719
30	Mancation	975.78	1740
31	coyote	951.50	1764
32	rholcomb	872.58	1843
33	heng47	838.32	1877
34	RevivetheWhigs	721.01	1995
35	davidewright	665.62	2050
36	HappyMan	664.80	2051
37	Tankslapper	657.50	2058
38	luker	562.52	2153
39	Doca	464.30	2251
40	stormr	437.79	2278
41	bonerov	408.54	2307
42	MyBaby	379.25	2336
43	Cam D	373.20	2342
44	Vale46	342.98	2373
45	Gustav	324.05	2392
46	Angry Marmot Motorsports	146.34	2569
47	Ciccio	119.20	2596
48	yamaka46	117.81	2598
49	AndrewNZ	112.66	2603
50	Redjet	108.50	2607
51	Leo	96.15	2619
52	kp4e	96.05	2620
53	Vileo	91.54	2624
54	DucCat900	90.50	2625
55	moho	84.51	2631
56	wingspan	75.55	2640
57	JCJones41	74.50	2641
58	Jonesy	30.22	2685

[Desmo44]

Like I said before, I'm not much of a gambler. Now it's certified. So much for my long shot strategy.

[Squidpuppet]

Man its rugged here. 86% accurate and I still got my ass kicked.

[RatsMC]

BTW, if you have forgotten or haven't checked it out, the playe stats page has some interesting stuff on it. FOr some players, the information you might need to improve your overall strategy may very well be there.

http://www.mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/player-functions/your-stats

I know for me, when I saw that my Winning Bet Value is 3.9 (meaning my winning bets usually pay 3.9 to 1) and that my bet to win ratio is 0.9, I realized that I am taking odds that are too long.

Of course, I've also failed to actually change anything but, you get the idea

[Squidpuppet]

BTW, if you have forgotten or haven't checked it out, the playe stats page has some interesting stuff on it. FOr some players, the information you might need to improve your overall strategy may very well be there.

http://www.mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/player-functions/your-stats

I know for me, when I saw that my Winning Bet Value is 3.9 (meaning my winning bets usually pay 3.9 to 1) and that my bet to win ratio is 0.9, I realized that I am taking odds that are too long.

Of course, I've also failed to actually change anything but, you get the idea

So, if I am hearing you correctly, you have done the analysis and research, determined a better path, yet have chosen to wrecklessly abandon it?

I am stickin' with my current plan. A dartboard.

[MPA]

I like the stats. I didn't realize I missed 2 races until now though lol

[motomania]

The new lawn darts seem to be working quite well for me! Although I'm not sure the neighborhood cat would agree.