Valencia Tests, dreams and predictions

[WayneG]

Just Twittered by Matthew Birt: "I don't believe he's going to do the same amount of winning he did last time when he changed to Yamaha." Stoner on Rossi

[RatsMC]

Just Twittered by Matthew Birt: "I don't believe he's going to do the same amount of winning he did last time when he changed to Yamaha." Stoner on Rossi

I'm not sure that is a very prescient since Rossi wasn't doing as much winning before switching and he is facing much stiffer competition than in 2004.

And there is no doubt, Puig is already planning to remind the world he brought Stoner and Pedrosa up together, and he is just thankful to have his "prodigal son" return. That should be good for a few laughs...

That is something that a few people may be forgetting: Stoner is also a Puig protege. He doesn't lose anything if Stoner is beating Pedrosa, he still gets to show the world that he is the best at developing young talent.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

Except for everyone on a Yamaha...

[WayneG]

Just Twittered by Matthew Birt: "I don't believe he's going to do the same amount of winning he did last time when he changed to Yamaha." Stoner on Rossi

I'm not sure that is a very prescient since Rossi wasn't doing as much winning before switching and he is facing much stiffer competition than in 2004.

I don't think he was really being literal, I read it as more sarcastic (as is our way). In other words they have there work cut out for them and it isn't going to be easy. An interesting comment none the less.

[Squidpuppet]

Anyone remember Lawson's comment when he first stepped off Garnders bike? I wonder if Rossi is going to say that about Stoner one day?

Yep. Remember what Nicky said after his first laps aboard the Ducati? Something to the effect of..."I dont know how much they are paying Casey to ride this thing, but they should double it".

[Tormo4ever]

Just Twittered by Matthew Birt: "I don't believe he's going to do the same amount of winning he did last time when he changed to Yamaha." Stoner on Rossi

I'm not sure that is a very prescient since Rossi wasn't doing as much winning before switching and he is facing much stiffer competition than in 2004.

And there is no doubt, Puig is already planning to remind the world he brought Stoner and Pedrosa up together, and he is just thankful to have his "prodigal son" return. That should be good for a few laughs...

That is something that a few people may be forgetting: Stoner is also a Puig protege. He doesn't lose anything if Stoner is beating Pedrosa, he still gets to show the world that he is the best at developing young talent.

I remember Stoner wearing the movistar junior team livery (i thought it was funny too when i saw his name on the leathers, like "well he s pretty good for someone that races baked!"), smashing 125cc lap records on every spanish cev championship track he wildcarded at ... I am not sure Puig developed much of Casey's innate talent, but he definitely provided a lot of help to Stoner when he landed in Europe and most needed it. So i was sad to hear so much negative talk towards Alberto after Casey signing for Honda, about how he would try to turn Honda against him. I don t think we ll ever hear a bad word from CS about Puig. Plus i reckon Dani and Stoner have always got on well and so much rspect each other. In fact i find a few similarities in these two racers. Off the track, that is, not regarding riding style.

[ieism]

A lot of talk about the carbon fibre frame of the Ducati here, but I have to admit that i've never seen it. Are there any clear pictures of it somewhere? I'd love to see it.
I imagine they can design any amount of flex and stiffness into the part that connects the headstock with the engine if it's long enough. I used to have carbon fiber masts 10 years ago, and they could already do that back then by changing the thickness and direction of the fibre strands.

I refuse to believe carbon fibre frames are impossible. John Britten had it figured out in 1989 already, without all the computer simulations and stuff that Ducati has now.

[RatsMC]

I do not believe that CF frames are impossible but I do believe that there are a lot of forces at work that engineers don't fully understand - forces that racers know and feel. Those forces could certainly be baked into (pun intended) the CF design but there may be subtleties that no one is able to account for. Additionally, the forces at work are so dynamic that it may be difficult to design the lay up in such a way that it reacts the same way at 65 degree lean as it does at 45 degrees.

Total conjecture but this may be at the heart of Ducati's problem: being able to account for the wide variability of the direction of feedback forces. Honda spent a lot of time messing around with the lateral forces on the front end earlier in the last decade. Their solution was developed largely through trial and error to put the right amount of flex in the right parts. Ducati simply do not have the resources to pursue a trial and error approach.

[sir_nj]

In that sense, Pedrosa has to be scared. And there is no doubt, Puig is already planning to remind the world he brought Stoner and Pedrosa up together, and he is just thankful to have his "prodigal son" return. That should be good for a few laughs...

I have been thinking about that ever since the move was announced. IMO when/if that day comes, Pedrosa is dead in the water and Puig will be in the gutter.

[ieism]

Mamola and Haslam tried a carbon framed Cagiva in 1990, but they went back to their tubular frames because “the suspension set-up and feedback from the carbon frame so fundamentally different that their normal bike adjustments and suspension settings no longer worked and that the bike raised more questions than it answered.”

But this is not at all what happened to Stoner when he switched to the carbon framed Duc. He didn't start out with problems on the GP9, the first CF Ducati. They set the fastest pre-season testtimes at every track they went to, and Stoner felt it was an improvement over the trellis-framed Duc, as did Ducati's testrider.

Why did it appear to work in early 2009? Where did the front end problems in 2010 come from really.... How big a role do the larger diameter front forks play? Did Bridgestone change the tires a lot this year? I'm just saying it could be a lot of things, I'm not so sure if it's the chassis.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

A lot of talk about the carbon fibre frame of the Ducati here, but I have to admit that i've never seen it. Are there any clear pictures of it somewhere? I'd love to see it.

This picture is, essentially, 2 years old but it's the clearest one I can think of off the top of my head:

(link to story on home page)

[Cam D]

Plus i reckon Dani and Stoner have always got on well and so much rspect each other. In fact i find a few similarities in these two racers. Off the track, that is, not regarding riding style.

When they were racing 250's Stoner publicly stood up and put shit on Dani down at Philip Island. Dani was reduced to tears of frustration/rage afterwards so I doubt they would be very close. Stoner fell off the next day during the race at the bottom of Lukey Heights. As an Aussie his behaviour was quite embarassing at the time.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

Was lucy there?
Is that the seed of her discontent/affection?


Something tells me they've both matured a bit since then...

[TwoStroke Institute]

Plus i reckon Dani and Stoner have always got on well and so much rspect each other. In fact i find a few similarities in these two racers. Off the track, that is, not regarding riding style.

When they were racing 250's Stoner publicly stood up and put shit on Dani down at Philip Island. Dani was reduced to tears of frustration/rage afterwards so I doubt they would be very close. Stoner fell off the next day during the race at the bottom of Lukey Heights. As an Aussie his behaviour was quite embarassing at the time.

Yes Casey learned a valueable lesson from that first was Karma second was don't give your rivals motivation to beat you. He was a bit contrite on Monday.....

[Tormo4ever]

In that sense, Pedrosa has to be scared. And there is no doubt, Puig is already planning to remind the world he brought Stoner and Pedrosa up together, and he is just thankful to have his "prodigal son" return. That should be good for a few laughs...

I have been thinking about that ever since the move was announced. IMO when/if that day comes, Pedrosa is dead in the water and Puig will be in the gutter.

I very much doubt that will happen. I really don t get the animosity against Pedrosa or Puig, but to each his own. Also , Puig never brought Pedrosa and Stoner together, Stoner landed in Europe and somehow got to Puig, who got him some wildcard appearances on the CEV, also (apparently), hosted Casey and his family in his own house.
Pedrosa turned up to a promotion cup (Movistar Cup), got picked up by Puig there.

i ve never heard Puig bragging about how he brought two of the major talents in the paddock today. Never. Puig was a racer and nothing else, he heps racers and can t care less about his reputation and how people perceive him.

Btw, Pedrosa s written on his blog he s been prescribed 4 weeks of rest for his arm , full rest. After that, he ll get checked again to see how the injury is evolving.

http://www.repsol.com/es_es/competicion ... drosa.aspx



He talks positively of the Honda, this is the first time the Honda works from the start of the season. but says he s worried as he thought after monday s rest he d feel better on the first day of testing; the arm actually felt worse.

[Kropotkin]

One of you "founders" here pointed out during a practice session a few years back, that he (it wasn't lucy) had figured out that Rossi was doing "sector practice", and intentionally never led any of the sessions. I don't remember which race it was, but Rossi went on to skunk it up and make everyone else look out of place. I've tried to keep that memory fresh ever since.

So, you take the World's most accomplished rider and the the World's most accomplished crew chief and put them in a test session with the World's most quixotic racing motorcycle, while the rider is nursing an injury that directly affects leverage and weight distribution... what do you do?
Look for specific elements to focus upon; not chaining together hot-lap times and inviting fatigue (to say nothing of further injury).

There were no intermediate times recorded, as far as I can tell (at the track, they only issued lists of full lap times). But Rossi didn't look like he was working on a sector basis, he just looked to be struggling and uncomfortable. I don't think the injured shoulder helped, but I'm not sure that he found riding the Ducati at all a pleasant experience.

[Oscar]

I wonder just how much of the "Shock and Cor!" reactions to Rossi's results is the result of unrequited - and unrealistic - expectations/hopes/dreams?

I suggest that a large part of the racing fan community was looking forward to one of two things: either an affirmation of a match made in heaven between Rossi and Ducati OR a resolution of the who is fastest - Rossi or Stoner? - debate. Who of us has not wished that just once, they'd all be put on a totally neutral control bike and sent out to do battle together? That isn't going to happen, but at least with Rossi jumping on the Ducati I'm sure many of us looked forward to the test as showing some sort of comparison between the two guys who are at the top of the table in terms of race wins, at least, in the 800s era.

To have those expectations was realistically unfair on Rossi. Common sense says he was considerably hampered by an injury that cannot be better than somewhat managed by a riding position and style that minimises the upper-body work needed to be done and he was moving to a bike that absolutely needs a unique blend of wrestling and finesse. It would be like asking an ice-racing champion to perform with a strapped-up broken ankle.

Had Rossi been fully fit, perhaps the answers to both the match made in heaven and who is fastest conundrums might have been somewhat answered but that opportunity has passed. The bike Rossi rides at the next tests will not be a 'Stoner issue' Duc, of that we may be sure, no matter what public utterances Preziosi may make (and we can pretty much bet they will be along the lines of 'minor tweak found the magic setting'). That's the downside.

The upside is, we all still have a topic for endless bar debates on 'who was best/fastest' - probably for all eternity.

[Faster1]

I wonder just how much of the "Shock and Cor!" reactions to Rossi's results is the result of unrequited - and unrealistic - expectations/hopes/dreams?

OS , I'll admit it I was shocked/disappointed.
While I consider myself to be on the “disappointment” side of the fence, I don’t consider my expectations of “closer to the front practice times” to be too unreasonable. There were several post “is that my leg bone?” races where Rossi looked faster than flash. Pain and discomfort notwithstanding, (we all agree he is injured) Rossi soldiered on and at times minimized the effects of his injuries. And the Ducati, with all of its flaws still showed to be a turn-key winning bike during the last half of the year. Stoner decimated the field at PI like they were all on 125’s. OK, the Duc is a "made for Stoner" machine, given. But I, and many others aren’t convinced by the countless “Rossi did it before” so he can do it again proclamations. While noble, in reality it’s as much wishful-thinking as now saying “Rossi wasn’t trying to go as fast as possible” or "he was sand-bagging". The only person more curious about the Duc than anyone else, was Rossi. How could he not want to go WFO on the only bike that beat him so many times, more times than anyone else? Even a few Rossi die-hard fans thought that the Duc did more than it's fair part in "helping" Stoner reap success
This is a new day and the staunch supporters discount too many real factors. Age and competition make this new factory transition unique and it’s conclusion unprecedented. As a long time Rossi fan, my opinion is that he was a faster rider a few years ago. To me it’s not just that Rossi was slower during the tests than expected but rather, others were faster than expected. I watched the long version of all of the feeds and many in the Rossi camp were doing a admirable job of hiding genuine concern,, Non more than Preziosi himself followed by Rossi and Jeremy. The bike in it’s current form won’t win VR a championship. That’s huge. While improvements in both Rossi’s health and the Duc’s speed by February are guaranteed, the real question is, will it be enough. Or can Rossi (at this point in the GOATs career) change his riding style to extract the most out of the Red Devil. It’s also quite conceivable that a few others will make improvements by February as well.

The funny part is that if Rossi just managed one top 5 lap time, nobody would be saying a word,, that’s the kicker for me. How boring would the off season be? So I guess it's thanks VR..

[JanBros]

10 pages off nearly pure speculation, and some funny shit

[sir_nj]

10 pages off nearly pure speculation, and some funny shit

and your point is

Go on, admit it, it is fun though

The upside is, we all still have a topic for endless bar debates on 'who was best/fastest' - probably for all eternity.

Just like some of my most stupid theories, they can't actually be disproved so people still have to argue over them.

Hey Rats,

you know when I asked if you were going to have a few rounds of the prediction contest for the off season? I think this would be even more appropriate than ever given the results of the first test. It would keep me off the streets at least. First prediction - Next practice Rossi has either a trellis or box beam front end to try. 25 Rat points

[TwoStroke Institute]

I don't buy the hampered by injury bit , shoulder seemed fine a couple of days before.

The only myth laid to rest is the Stoner uses the 'superior' electronics of the Ducati, notwithstanding is the old chestnut that electronics do all the work.

[Oscar]

OS , I'll admit it I was shocked/disappointed.
While I consider myself to be on the “disappointment” side of the fence, I don’t consider my expectations of “closer to the front practice times” to be too unreasonable.

F1 - my cards on the table. I have always been a great fan of Rossi - in the Rossi/Biaggi days I was cheering like a loon every time he hunted Max down and Max usually disposed of himself. I am also a great fan of Stoner - partly because he's an Aussie, partly because at times he's just so damn good to watch when he's up the Duc like a rat up a drainpipe. I would have LOVED to see those two close together at the top of the timesheets - but if you go back to my opening post, I just did not expect it.

Why? - because Rossi is obviously suffering from the shoulder and the Duc is equally obviously a hard bitch to ride fast. Watching Stoner wring it out, it's an alligator-wrestle; anyone who still thinks Stoner was being a wuss when he started on the downhill health slide in early '09 and was stepping off the thing almost catatonically shagged-out is just not being objective. I saw in the last few days a snippet of footage of Stoner then under the ministration of Dr. Costa post-race and Costa was quite seriously concerned about his state of health - it wasn't just a check-up situation, it was more like first-action trauma response. Riding the Duc is hand-to-hand combat.

The Yam is easy(ish) to ride fast and the one Rossi was riding for the last couple of months was set up to minimise the shoulder problems. A 'Stoner-issue' Duc was always going to be a big ask anyway for anybody to step on and replicate, or close to, the times of the guy who has done more laps faster than anybody on that set of engineering compromises over the last four years.

The bike in it’s current form won’t win VR a championship.

And that's the nub of the thing. Rossi might have wondered if there was something there that everybody else has missed in how it could be ridden but I'm willing to bet that it only took him a few laps to know that it was simply not 'his' weapon. If you like, it is a bit like handing a surgeon a meat cleaver when what he knows he needs is a scalpel. Had Ducati not - at least tacitly - in effect promised to him that major development was an option on the table, I have no doubt he would have given it quite a bit more at the test. Rossi is not one to attempt to fail heroically if there is a chance to succeed- and by that I mean no disrespect to him, he sees the long game very, very clearly. And before one concludes anything in the 'Rossi vs Stoner' match-up - Stoner knew it wouldn't win HIM a championship either, nearly 12 months ago.

I'm willing to bet that the two people in the whole world most hopeful of Rossi discovering something magical were Del Torchio and Preziosi. With Stoner leaving, the hike in the salary bill for Rossi was probably less than the likely cost of development they faced to get back to the top of the tree had Rossi clicked with the thing. The fall-back position, not unrealistically, is likely to be that Rossi's presence can garner sufficiently more sponsorship to soften appreciably the additional salary and development cost they face.

I think that any way it gets cut, 2011 is going to be a hard year for Rossi. Would I bet against him replicating the success of the ''08 return to the top after two years away' in 2012? Even money, from where I sit right now.

[WayneG]

JBs' view (twitted by Matthew Birt) "Anybody who bets against us will want to have plenty of money in their pocket." Jerry Burgess defiant after Rossi's Ducati ride in Valencia.

[Cam D]

There seems to be two trains of thought from those close to the situation. Hayden and Stoner (and Preziosi ?) suggest that the bike is capable of winning as is. Burgess suggests that the bike is difficult and demanding to ride. Many here believe that it needs a total make over to suit the new rider. That's a pretty wide range of opinions. The bike ranges from being a potential series winner to a POS..... Valentino's injury has made it very difficult to tell exactly what the potential is.

one from from Birt on MCN

Hayden, who was team-mates with Rossi at Repsol Honda back in 2003, told MCN: “I think it had to help him make his decision easier seeing me go well on it this year and see how much the bike improved instead of one guy going fast.

"I’ve been up there and even the satellite guys have been sticking their nose in a bit. I got no doubt he can win on this bike and I think it is going to be good for MotoGP and good for Ducati to get his experience.”

From the guys at Auto Sport http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/88341

Valentino Rossi's chief engineer Jeremy Burgess says the Italian's slow times in his maiden test for Ducati are no cause for panic.

The seven-time MotoGP champion was only eighth and 15th on his first two days of running with his new team at Valencia last week.

But Burgess, who was followed Rossi to Ducati after achieving great success with him at Honda and Yamaha, said the Valencia sessions were largely for acclimatisation and there was no need to top the times.

"There's no reason to panic, despite Valentino's unusual test results," Burgess told Motosprint.

"Everything was new for Valentino as it was for myself and my team."

He admitted that there was a great deal of change to adjust to at Ducati.

"We've all found ourselves in contact with a bike very different from the Japanese ones, and therefore with a different work method," Burgess said.

"The Ducati reacts differently, so this is a time to be handled with calmness by us too, just to understand things.

"After years of Japanese bikes, and seven seasons at Yamaha, for Valentino to get on the Ducati was a sort of culture shock.

"This bike is a lot more physical, the way to make it turn with the required precision is certainly the thing we must focus on at the moment."

Burgess added: "Everyone likes to be at the top of the timesheets, after every test session, but I knew Valentino would get on the track to do a different job: he wanted to ride to understand the bike, not to do record laps.

"He kept himself within wide margins, he certainly didn't ride as if it was a race weekend. For sure we've understood that to make the Ducati turn, you need a bigger effort than what Valentino was used to, physically too, and we didn't expect that."

Burgess also believes that Rossi was suffering particularly badly with his shoulder injury - which has since undergone surgery - at the test.

"No one has focused on one aspect: his shoulder," said Burgess.

"Valentino has held on in order to finish the season, and two extra days have put strain on his already suffering shoulder.

"On the second day Valentino could barely do three or four laps in a row, and without ever pushing. This has influenced his test."

[JanBros]

and your point is

Go on, admit it, it is fun though

well, that was my point