Valencia Tests, dreams and predictions

[RatsMC]

I'll bet they weren't going for a couple of hundred grand though ...

While I definitely agree that a MotoGP on the open market would attract a lot more than the asking price they had listed, that price does not reflect the actual value of the bike itself which, to Ducati, is exactly $0 USD (which, I think is something like 4000,000,000 Lire ).

[Oscar]

While I definitely agree that a MotoGP on the open market would attract a lot more than the asking price they had listed, that price does not reflect the actual value of the bike itself which, to Ducati, is exactly $0 USD (which, I think is something like 4000,000,000 Lire ).

I had an email from a bloke in Nigeria who was the actual owner, offering Stoner's one to me sans broker's fee! I arranged to swap it for Ireland, so eat your livers out, you non-motoGp bike owners out there..

[phil]

While I definitely agree that a MotoGP on the open market would attract a lot more than the asking price they had listed, that price does not reflect the actual value of the bike itself which, to Ducati, is exactly $0 USD (which, I think is something like 4000,000,000 Lire ).

I had an email from a bloke in Nigeria who was the actual owner, offering Stoner's one to me sans broker's fee! I arranged to swap it for Ireland, so eat your livers out, you non-motoGp bike owners out there..

A superb idea Oscar...I wonder if they'd take Iceland for that RD 500???

[Oscar]

It's all part of the business plan - once I get it here, I'm going to go for the NSW Police Pursuit Car repair contract, then fill the tank and let Lucy take it for a test ride at 9.00 at night with a tinted visor and half a pack of cigarettes..

On the proceeds from THAT, I'll buy the Bahamas...

[TwoStroke Institute]

From the seller 'Mark'

Hi, no I was asked to remove them as the factory do not want them advertised. They are currently still available but I do have interested people on both. I know that sounds like a typical sales pitch but is the case!

If you have an interest in either (or both) please let me know. They will come with full documentation confirming their authenticity. The Stoner bike is one of two that he used during the season, I can confirm which races this bike was used for if required.

The Rossi bike is a development machine they made for him to test at Valencia this year. It is I believe the first Ducati race bike he has ever ridden. Whilst not actually raced, should he go on to win another championship with them I think this may well end up being worth a lot more than today's price (is just my opinion).

So the interesting bit is "developement machine made for him "

[Oscar]

Wayne Gardner, in his weekly column (http://www.waynegardnerapproved.com/wr34.htm), makes a very good point regarding the fact that Yamaha released Rossi from his contract obligations early so that he could undertake the Valencia test.

While I don't regard Wayne as the fount of all wisdom any more than I do Kevin Schwantz, both contribute perspective from the 'inner circle' though nowadays it is unlikely to be the innermost circle. In this case though I think Wanye has hit on a point that is bleedingly obvious yet most of us have overlooked.

That point is that had Rossi NOT been able to ride the Duc at Valencia, any development to tailor the bike more accurately to what he wants could not have started until after the next test which is, from memory, in February - not many weeks before the season starts. In effect, Yamaha have handed Rossi/Ducati two months' of development time - which is as it now appears, likely a very valuable 'gift' indeed.

Personally I think this is of great benefit for the good of the '11 season - firstly for Rossi and Ducati's sake but also because, hopefully, everybody else's achievements wont be swamped by the ongoing focus on Ducati struggling to get the damn thing competitive. Putting aside the reality, for a moment, of what it takes to win a WC, the fact is that when Rossi isn't competitive - for whatever reason - the relative efforts of everybody else in the field is devalued by the perception that any troubles Rossi may be having makes the competition less valid.

I remain convinced that Rossi's very underwhelming performance at Valencia was, strategically, a damn fine thing as it has obviously spurred Ducati to move most expeditiously and positively to make changes to the bike. I don't think that was entirely a matter of happy accident.

[TwoStroke Institute]

You can make a complete new bike but it's all unknown untill the rubber hits the track. There would not have been mountains of useful data from Valencia.You can call it a ride impression but everyone knows the Ducati's front end has a mind of it's own and the rider has to jump on it and show it who is boss and the lap times follow.

[Dayle88]

The lap times may follow but so do the crashes. Thats not the way to win world championships. To me there is no if Rossi can be competitive it is when.

[RatsMC]

Oscar, I must agree with everything you just posted there. I'm not sure of Gardner's analytical capabilities but he does often have interesting information and perspective and his thoughts do alter the general discussion thus far.

The last thing we need next season is a segment of the audience believing the championship carries an asterisk though Rossi losing the title always seems to propagate claims of illegitimacy for some.


Hopefully, Yamaha have given us the gift of an asterisk-free title.

[Albert]

The last thing we need next season is a segment of the audience believing the championship carries an asterisk though Rossi losing the title always seems to propagate claims of illegitimacy for some.

Hopefully they are few and far between on this site

It's rather sad to note that the direction of Oscar's excellent thread has been rather dramatically diverted by what (almost) everyone perceives as a poor and dismal display by Valentino!
The vast majority of the Press cameras of the World were focused on the Ducati garage and the corresponding eruption of flash bulbs must have lit the place up like a Qatar night time race!
In amongst all this Casey has virtually been ignored - which is rather sad when you pay due regard to his performance!

Dani has warned him about the power delivery of the Honda ---

Pedrosa, who finished fifth fastest in the Valencia test, said: “I don't know how the Ducati is, but compared to the Yamaha we are still too aggressive both on acceleration and deceleration.

"Our bike is moving a lot because of the engine and we still have to work on that. Casey’s experience with the Honda is very low. He hasn't it raced it yet so compared to the Ducati he felt the difference. I know how difficult it is to manage the power delivery for the whole race where he was only doing short runs. I tried a new engine in Valencia but it is still too aggressive in the way it delivers the power.”

---- but do any of us REALLY believe that the Honda will be any more aggressive than the particular Ducati that Casey wrestled and fought with all season??

--- and before anyone tries to misquote me, this is what I actually said way back on page 1 of this thread --

First off I worry that Casey's style may not suit the Honda! I sincerely hope that I'm wrong, but if I'm not then I hope it can be engineered to suit him!

[Oscar]

a poor and dismal display by Valentino!

Albert, I don't think that is the general reaction here, I have more the feeling that we as a community are ( to lift a phrase from 'Men on Black [bikes]' ) - searching for a handle on the moment.

Maybe I'm being too much of a 'glass half full' person here but IF Rossi had been fully fit, then not at least bettering de Puniet's first-up efforts on the Duc would have been fairly devestating - but he wasn't, and I believe that will turn out to be all for the better in the long run. 'Nuff said until the next page in the story there is turned, I think.

As for Stoner and the whole HRC story - well, he did more or less what was expected (other than throwing it across the tarmac, as a portion of the great unwashed I suspect had hoped to see). Pedrosa was in as much physical trouble as Rossi, I think, so his times per se are equally irrelevant in the grand scale of things. I don't think Stoner will be much concerned if the bike is, ahem, lively for the whole race as long as it's predictable and that may well be the whole dirt-rider heritage thing but I wonder how much of what Pedrosa was saying is merely about instantaneous response and how much about race-long fuel management issues?

Stoner (and also Hayden) gave us some valuable insight into the effective race fuel management strategy for Ducs by his comments about 'getting out fast and then turning the economy map up', and we have elsewhere discussed what appears to be a late-race fading from Pedrosa that I tend increasingly to believe may be fuel-management related. Stoner has now put his mark in the pissing up the wall competition (as has Simoncelli) and I'd be expecting some race simulations from Stoner at the Sepang test. Conversely, I think Pedrosa will be going for race pace there and that may well provide a whole new angle on the potential competition for '11.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

Two tangential excursions...

1). I wasn't there, and young Dani was, but I seem to recall reading that Stoner was, in fact, putting on a rather stupifying display of lengthy runs, in lieu of having anything to really test.

2). Doesn't Pedrosa always go for race pace? I don't mean this as a jab, but does he ever get assigned to development work (that "...boing, boing, boing..." quote keeps coming to mind)? I was under the impression he "tests" new things to see if they work for him, as opposed to assessing how they work, overall. Sort of the ante-Rossi...

[Albert]

I don't think that I'm being unjust when I say that the vast majority of the people who post on this site were surprised that Rossi didn't go better than he did Oscar!

Some are in Camp 1 and are delighted!
Some are in Camp 2 and are surprised!
Some (inc me) hoped for better but weren't overly surprised by it.

I fully expect a re-engineered front end to make a showing sooner rather than later!

Apparently JB will be at the factory this month and I suspect that he and Filippo Preziosi will have several meetings together! Filippo is keen to eradicate the "wayward" front end that his "problem child" suffers from!

[TwoStroke Institute]

I don't think the front end is the Ducati's 'problem' other than fork off set , head angle and the forks themselves there isn't a whole lot to change. Then it's stiffness ratio's of the head stock, but then your into the frame's characteristic not the front end. My uneducated guess is the the 90deg V angle of the cylinders is placing to much or to little forward weight bias at the front when needed. The engine can't be placed in the ideal position, because the front bank would clout the tyre. Something that a 70deg V angle might fix..........................

[phil]

Here's what Colin Edwards had to say about Rossi's move to Yamaha in November '03...
http://www.superbikeplanet.com/2003-Nov ... wards1.htm
My point being, reading the last couple of paragraphs shows that with Rossi even the experts can miss the mark, so we'll see...
But then again he'd just signed for Honda so his comments should taken with a pinch of corporate ass kissing salt.

[Oscar]

I don't think that I'm being unjust when I say that the vast majority of the people who post on this site were surprised that Rossi didn't go better than he did Oscar!

Surprised, perhaps bemused - I'm not among them - to me the scenario was logical (as I said in my initial post) that Rossi was simply not in a position to risk going for it. If he HAD done some superb times, I think it would have changed the outlook on the last four years of Duc development (and Stoner's achievements) monumentally. Personally, I didn't see that as likely; else others on the Duc would have had far better results. Stoner's '06 season - and Istanbul in particular - said he knows how to wring a bike's neck and isn't afraid of being bitten back. 23 race wins in the 800's says that approach doesn't fluke wins, nor is it a case of sometimes having the red mist come down all race long - he's no Kocinski.

Then it's stiffness ratio's of the head stock, but then your into the frame's characteristic not the front end

Nothing more than intuition says to me that the root problem is stiffness and particularly vibration characteristics - I think the BS tyres are capable of driving the chassis to the point where it shakes the tyre loose on the road. Fairly subtle differences between tyres could significantly alter the reaction (and Stoner and Hayden aren't the only ones to have experienced totally unpredictable results from two apparently identical BS tyres on the same set-up) - but if the Ducs are more susceptible than 'softer' bikes then they are going to be the ones to suffer worst. Softening anything between the tyre and the chassis will change the vibration frequency and amplitude. What I think will be fascinating will be to see whether the next - 'Rossi' - iteration will produce a Duc which is reliably a mid-field runner but will take every bit of racing magic Rossi can pull out to make it to the top step.

[sir_nj]

I don't think Stoner will be much concerned if the bike is, ahem, lively for the whole race as long as it's predictable and that may well be the whole dirt-rider heritage thing but I wonder how much of what Pedrosa was saying is merely about instantaneous response and how much about race-long fuel management issues?

Stoner (and also Hayden) gave us some valuable insight into the effective race fuel management strategy for Ducs by his comments about 'getting out fast and then turning the economy map up', and we have elsewhere discussed what appears to be a late-race fading from Pedrosa that I tend increasingly to believe may be fuel-management related.

One would have thought Stoner doesn't need to do long runs in order to test the influence of the economy map, surely they could simply tell the computer he was on lap 24 and had 1L of fuel left and send him out for two laps? I'm more convinced than ever now that Stoner's comments about the smoothness were directed to his new team mate and long time rival. Not sure if it is a good strategy though.

Some are in Camp 1 and are delighted!
Some are in Camp 2 and are surprised!
Some (inc me) hoped for better but weren't overly surprised by it.

I fully expect a re-engineered front end to make a showing sooner rather than later!

Apparently JB will be at the factory this month and I suspect that he and Filippo Preziosi will have several meetings together! Filippo is keen to eradicate the "wayward" front end that his "problem child" suffers from![/i][/b]

Albert, the thing I like about this site is that the majority are quite objective so get over it

Speculation as to the "fix" on the Duc is going to have to keep us going for some time yet and IMHO it is probably one of the best off season teasers that we have seen for many a year.

[sir_nj]

What I think will be fascinating will be to see whether the next - 'Rossi' - iteration will produce a Duc which is reliably a mid-field runner but will take every bit of racing magic Rossi can pull out to make it to the top step.

To me that last little bit is the alien part and not the bike. Regardless of how well the VR/JB team had made the Yamaha it still needed the rider to beat 3 other special riders. I don't think this component is going to change regardless of what they do to the Duc.

[RatsMC]

Something that a 70deg V angle might fix..........................

That 90 degree v that Ducati is religious about has always struck me as quixotic. I mean just looking at my Buell with its 72 degree angle I feel the damn thing it just too crowded and really limits the configuration options. I mean, you should see what the Buell racing team has done just to try and fit radiators in the thing.

[Oscar]

I'm more convinced than ever now that Stoner's comments about the smoothness were directed to his new team mate and long time rival. Not sure if it is a good strategy though.

I agree on both points - though Stoner might have also been tweaking Rossi's nose just a wee bit, having put down fast times and while knowing full well that Rossi would find the Duc at the very least very nervous in the front end, in effect:

'Oh and by the way, if you're going to get anywhere on the Duc, you have to turn the TC right down and fight the power delivery as well as the front end'. It's a bit like wishing your love rival well with your ex-girlfriend by telling him that she's a wonderful girl and of course you soon get used to her farting in bed. (and I hereby acknowledge due gratitude to Lucy for the image..)

Such mind games only work at all if delivered from a position of strength. If various pit-boxes suddenly become absorbed in the timing screens when Stoner is out at Sepang, we'll see just how much sway his performance at Valencia holds.

[Albert]

Albert, the thing I like about this site is that the majority are quite objective so get over it

I have been "over it" for a very long time - a look back at any of my posts will tell you that!

This one above is perhaps a good indication!

Hell - I was even objective over the Laguna Seca '08 race when many others weren't!

One of the reasons that I stay here is because of the objectivity from most of the membership!

[TwoStroke Institute]

Something that a 70deg V angle might fix..........................

That 90 degree v that Ducati is religious about has always struck me as quixotic. I mean just looking at my Buell with its 72 degree angle I feel the damn thing it just too crowded and really limits the configuration options. I mean, you should see what the Buell racing team has done just to try and fit radiators in the thing.

Closing the V helps with packaging, but as I said before the Ducati 'fix' is more about the company than the bike.

[Albert]

My uneducated guess is the the 90deg V angle of the cylinders is placing to much or to little forward weight bias at the front when needed. The engine can't be placed in the ideal position, because the front bank would clout the tyre. Something that a 70deg V angle might fix..........................

I had a similar thought TSI - but they managed to fix that problem with the WSB machine, so why can't they do it with the MotoGP bike - which (originally) was engineered like 2 side by side V twins?

[sir_nj]

Albert, the thing I like about this site is that the majority are quite objective so get over it

[b][i] I have been "over it" for a very long time - a look back at any of my posts will tell you that!

don't get me wrong Albert I enjoy your posts and I have appreciated your objectivity but the repetitive theme about SOME POSTS just made me think...

[TwoStroke Institute]

I dunno Albert but the place to look would be the major differences , which will always be the frame.