Valencia Tests, dreams and predictions

[Oscar]

Well, I feel even more secure in my prediction that JB will be in Europe for Christmas from the news on the Home page...

The problem I see with Ducati deciding to build something significantly different in terms of stiffness in the front sub-frame is - how far to go? They'd better have every scrap of data from Stoner and Hayden (at least) to try to find the loadings at which the thing starts to go diabolical, and in the case of Stoner's data, they're going to have to try to tease out the bike's critical point(s) from the tyre's. TSI's point that Rossi's data from Valencia won't be of great help seems to me to be pretty much on the money.

It appears highly likely that Stoner pushes the thing so quickly past the point where the frame is the primary culprit to where the tyre is the offender (hence his comments on crashes where he has backed-off a bit - and a careful examination of his lap times prior to many of his crashes - right back to Brno '08 - supports his contention) that his data will serve to confuse rather more than confirm. Stoner's unique style will further complicate things - Ben Spies' comments that sometimes Stoner does things he can't understand, whereas with everybody else he can understand what they're doing - is noteworthy.

Quite some time ago Rusty and I had some exchange about a perception that Stoner sometimes does something - and I'm not quite sure exactly what that is - on corner entry that seems to defy conventional logic. I THINK it is a quick twitch of the bars to a strongly in-turned position, almost scrubbing the tyre sideways to generate extra heat and force the thing to start moving in the new direction, followed by the counter-steer movement to get the bike laid down for the corner. The nearest thing I can think of by way of explanation would be the flick-turn entry to a corner for rallye drivers but it's not exactly that either.

Whatever - I can't see that there's enough data for Ducati to be able to synthesise the 'correct' solution for Rossi; they're going to have to take a punt on how far to go. I'd not be surprised if they churn out several new sub-frames at the very least for Rossi to try at Sepang - and anybody want to bet there will be a fair amount of closed-pit-door time there while the mechanics swap out one frame for another as they home in on the best solution?

[sir_nj]

on corner entry that seems to defy conventional logic. I THINK it is a quick twitch of the bars to a strongly in-turned position, almost scrubbing the tyre sideways to generate extra heat and force the thing to start moving in the new direction, followed by the counter-steer movement to get the bike laid down for the corner. The nearest thing I can think of by way of explanation would be the flick-turn entry to a corner for rallye drivers but it's not exactly that either.

sounds more like what a motocrosser does to get the back to come around in order to square off the corner.

[TwoStroke Institute]

I don't think there is many tricks that any of the MotoGP riders can learn. IF Casey Stoner has a special something that allowed him to ride the Ducati, I think it's more the Spencer-esque "That bike should go that fast around that track" mindset before he jumps on. He was at the top of the timesheets from the first test.

The new AMCN Micheal Scott's column has lots of JB quotes, pressed on the differences between 04 and now, summerised they are
1) Lack of testing
2) Unconventional motorcycle
3) Proven winner

Data from Battani is n/a only Hayden can provide useful feedback.

The other elephant in the room is they will be testing when racing. The real PITA will be Casey Stoner's pearly white smile and the back of the RC212V .

[Albert]

don't get me wrong Albert I enjoy your posts and I have appreciated your objectivity but the repetitive theme about SOME POSTS just made me think...

It doesn't matter what I say or do - someone, somewhere thinks it's a personal dig!

---- and I'll say it on open forum - just in case you're wondering - none of this has been aimed at you and I'm sorry if that's how you perceive it!

F*ck - it's starting to get like a bad episode of the Jerry Springer show lately!
I think I'll take a seat in the back row, watch things unfold and occasionally heckle!

[Albert]

I dunno Albert but the place to look would be the major differences , which will always be the frame.

I seem to remember reading something about them tilting the V back very slightly on the WSB in order to give a little more clearance at the front!
Bring back 2 stokes - we never had this problem with them!

[RatsMC]

Something that a 70deg V angle might fix..........................

That 90 degree v that Ducati is religious about has always struck me as quixotic. I mean just looking at my Buell with its 72 degree angle I feel the damn thing it just too crowded and really limits the configuration options. I mean, you should see what the Buell racing team has done just to try and fit radiators in the thing.

Closing the V helps with packaging, but as I said before the Ducati 'fix' is more about the company than the bike.

I completely agree, Ducati has a marketing problem that has created a technical problem.

[deviant]

I am going to come across as incredibly naive with my next statement but here goes....perhaps the solution to the handling 'problem' is not as mysterious as people think....Bayliss, Capirossi, Checa and Gibernau could all ride the bike quick when it was a little more conventional in its design....when it still had the trellis frame for example....problems for riders other than Casey (and then latterly Casey too) came along with the move to increased stiffness above all else and then the carbon frame in 2009....if Burgess and co. can cut through the hysteria surrounding this bike and just look at pure engineering solutions then anything is possible....the 'problem' seems to be a lack of front end feel that stops the riders from knowing when the tyre is up to temperature....i'm hoping Burgess tackles this problem with his customary disdain for bullshit and just asks for more flex to be engineered into the carbon fibre front end of the bike....it may be that Ducati need a selection of front subframes/airbox with varying degrees of flex to take to each round and Rossi/Hayden decide which one they will use at any given track on a particular weekend....it could simply be that while other teams are playing with the fork angle, trail etc of their conventional bikes....the Ducati team simply take out one front end that has been deemed too stiff for a particular track and fit a softer/more flexible front end more towards the rider's liking.....whereas we are used to shots in the garage of bodywork and tyres hanging from the walls it could be that next season the Ducati garage has a range of say 3 or 4 front ends of varying stiffness hanging on the wall ready to be called on if needed.
If motorcycling is to continue down the road of using carbon fibre for swing arms, subframes, monocoques etc then this may be the only way to have a rideable bike at every track.

In my opinion the major stumbling block will be a desire to make one headstock/subframe/airbox combo that works at every track....as i dont think this is currently possible with carbon fibre....however if they acknowledge the limitations of the material and take a selection to each race then there's no reason why they cant have a bike that is competitive whatever the track and whatever the conditions.

[TwoStroke Institute]

They could do that but they are there to race not test bits and pieces. Practice time is limited as is no need to burn that trying things that don't work at a GP. They could revert to CrMo frame but we have spec tyres now and the bike must be made to work with those. No tailor made tyres. If the tyres need a realy stiff front end then that's what has to be built.

Anyone got a good idea on what the stroke of the GP v's WSBK is ?????

[sir_nj]

how much is known about building in flex for carbon fibre structures? Will the flex also depend on the way the weave is laid down as well as everything else?

I don't suppose the '11 motor will fit into the '07, '08 or '09 frames? Was it Honda who ended up doing that once, caused no end of supposed shame.

[Oscar]

n my opinion the major stumbling block will be a desire to make one headstock/subframe/airbox combo that works at every track....as i dont think this is currently possible with carbon fibre....however if they acknowledge the limitations of the material and take a selection to each race then there's no reason why they cant have a bike that is competitive whatever the track and whatever the conditions.

Two issues I see. The first is that with a subframe configuration, you have to take out the bending (or build in the compliance) in a very short distance compared to a longer beam type configuration. Since the ultimate strength of the subframe MUST be sufficient to withstand the greatest force applied to it without snapping, over a short distance that means the compliance options will be more limited no matter what the material.

The second problem I believe is the variability of BS tyres, which I consider to be suspect. The possibility of getting it spot-on for one specific tyre and then throwing on another, apparently identical, tyre and finding the set-up is out the window is real - it has happened to riders on other than Ducatis, including Edwards, Spies and Capirossi. If you look at Stoner's comments about 'not knowing how much grip for the first four- five laps' in the context of how fast Stoner is apparently able to guage what is happening in practice - typically three/four laps - I think the tyre variability must be considered a realistic issue.

[sir_nj]

The second problem I believe is the variability of BS tyres, which I consider to be suspect.

Oscar how much of a problem will it be to also have a host of hand laid CF front ends when trying to work out which one gives the best flex?

Let's say they strike the goldilocks charm "and this one's just right", OK boys whip up a whole batch of front ends just like this one for me. Fine we can do that but by the way, each one will be different.

[Oscar]

Oscar how much of a problem will it be to also have a host of hand laid CF front ends when trying to work out which one gives the best flex?

Basically, as far as my limited understanding of the material goes, sod-all - using finite element analysis software, once the shape is settled and the ultimate stress points established (i.e. the points where loads have to be carried out of the structure - where it bolts to the engine, where the headstock bearing carriers are placed etc.) you can vary the thickness / weave lay-up / curing cycle) on the computer and get the answers for pretty much any combination you want. Ducati could have a progression of front ends laid up, each one with say 5% difference in stiffness, very quickly.

As I see it, that offers a great range of options for any specific track / tyre / track temp etc. combination - but if you get the set-up spot on at one moment in time and pick another tyre off the rack for the race that turns out to be a bit different - then you're back to the 'ol turkey shoot situation. It's the same for everybody, of course, but if the 'band' of frame compliance is narrower then smaller differences between two tyres will exaggerate the problems. I picked up on something when researching for Heng's 'How Hard can it Be? thread, that even with steel tube frames, racers would prefer 'older' frames (ones with plenty of racing miles on them) over a new frame from the same jig simply because the older frame had settled out its stresses and become more compliant / predictable. That's a level of 'feeling' for the bike that we mortals ( well, me anyway) can't even contemplate having!

[TwoStroke Institute]

Your prediction of JB and co working all winter has come true Oscar, as Gary Coleman was due to come to a local bike club meeting next week , something he has done for the past 4 or 5 years.Then it's straight back into it after new year. Would say there is a bit of culture shock coming from a well resourced Japanese team to a small European team under the pump.

Would be a struck match in time taken to make iteration of a carbon or aluminium frames, steel trellis would be fastest.

[Oscar]

Your prediction of JB and co working all winter has come true Oscar, as Gary Coleman was due to come to a local bike club meeting next week , something he has done for the past 4 or 5 years.Then it's straight back into it after new year. Would say there is a bit of culture shock coming from a well resourced Japanese team to a small European team under the pump.

Would be a struck match in time taken to make iteration of a carbon or aluminium frames, steel trellis would be fastest.

Wasn't exactly a stroke of inspired genius-type guess! The crew are going to make blue-arsed flies look like sloths on valium come the Sepang test...

Absolutely agree on the steel trellis being quickest; if using acid-thinning of the aluminium beams (and I'd think motoGp bikes would be needing that sort of technology) then the c/f is probably quicker to lay up but the curing cycle makes it line-ball, I agree. Cast alloy using the 3-d laser-fused printing mould building technique / straight cnc machining is probably quicker than c/f, though.

[TwoStroke Institute]

Making the MDF mould would consume time though even that can be CNC machined.

[Oscar]

Making the MDF mould would consume time though even that can be CNC machined.

Oh, hell yes, if they actually change shapes rather than just different lay-ups in the original mould, it's a whole bigger ball of wax. I've been assuming they would keep the geometry and simply try different lay-ups; since the front subframe is also the airbox, changing shape could alter induction characteristics and from there they'd be, I reckon, chasing their tail big-time.

As I said somewhere above, I totally agree with you that there's a big management load to try to make, test and evaluate too much in the time available. If indeed, as Dr. K said in the article on the home page, the pasta has somewhat hit the fan at Ducati then the tried and true path of one change at a time may well go out the window...

[L34]

Hi, my 1st forum post, so please be easy on me....

From a outsiders point of view (never raced bikes, owned a couple, but have done some car racing) could Ducati's problem be as simple as the tire construction
does not suit it?
From what I have read the Dukes can not get their front boots hot enough or that they cool off too quick.

Since 2009 which teams' data have Bridgestone been using to develop their tires?
Sure they will say all the teams,but
would one teams data be easier construct a tire for than the rest?
Or are the BS tires a good compromise for most and the teams have built their bikes to suit the them with the excepton of Ducati who simply could
not find a fix for their front end woes?

By the way, plenty of great reading (and pics) on this forum, thanks to all.

[ducati1098s]

n my opinion the major stumbling block will be a desire to make one headstock/subframe/airbox combo that works at every track....as i dont think this is currently possible with carbon fibre....however if they acknowledge the limitations of the material and take a selection to each race then there's no reason why they cant have a bike that is competitive whatever the track and whatever the conditions.

Two issues I see. The first is that with a subframe configuration, you have to take out the bending (or build in the compliance) in a very short distance compared to a longer beam type configuration. Since the ultimate strength of the subframe MUST be sufficient to withstand the greatest force applied to it without snapping, over a short distance that means the compliance options will be more limited no matter what the material.

The second problem I believe is the variability of BS tyres, which I consider to be suspect. The possibility of getting it spot-on for one specific tyre and then throwing on another, apparently identical, tyre and finding the set-up is out the window is real - it has happened to riders on other than Ducatis, including Edwards, Spies and Capirossi. If you look at Stoner's comments about 'not knowing how much grip for the first four- five laps' in the context of how fast Stoner is apparently able to guage what is happening in practice - typically three/four laps - I think the tyre variability must be considered a realistic issue.

Completely agree Oscar re the length of flex or lack of available using the Ducati air box subframe. The traditional alu beam frame must allow flex along its length and therefore presumably flexes underneath the rider, allowing him to feel much more of whats going on underneath him. If the flex permitted is only in that v short space around the headstock/airbox then that must surely be flex which is much more remote from the rider being further away?

[Oscar]

Since 2009 which teams' data have Bridgestone been using to develop their tires?
Sure they will say all the teams, but would one teams data be easier construct a tire for than the rest?
Or are the BS tires a good compromise for most and the teams have built their bikes to suit the them with the excepton of Ducati who simply could not find a fix for their front end woes?

L34 - welcome to (as motomania has said eloquently elsewhere) - the asylum.. Great to see new people coming aboard because they appreciate the effort the forum members put into 'intelligent debate' rather than the slanging match opportunities of some other sites.

As far as particular manufacturer input to the BS tyres goes, in theory with the control tyres it's supposed to be a level playing field. I rather suspect that in practise BS take more note of certain teams but as far as I know they are not saying which ones. Used to be Ducati - culminating in the '07 triumph - and I would assume that the relationship established over some years there would still have some validity, but AFAIK it's a well-held secret now. There are probably others out there who have more inside info - anybody??

The traditional alu beam frame must allow flex along its length and therefore presumably flexes underneath the rider, allowing him to feel much more of whats going on underneath him. If the flex permitted is only in that v short space around the headstock/airbox then that must surely be flex which is much more remote from the rider being further away?

I have no idea whether the rider can feel the flex from the beam itself through the calves - I'm about three or four levels of ability below that as a rider to make any comment. I'd have thought it is more a feedback through the bars akin to the way that one can detect changes in the road surface through differences in pressure being not what one expects / knows instinctively ought to be happening - in crude terms, that 'disconnect' between the bars and the tyre reaction. There are guys here who race who can, I'm sure, provide way better information - Gustav, for one.

The flex in a short structure thing - it's sort of like, if you take a ruler and put a length of it hanging out the end of the bench, clamp it down, and then add a weight to the free end until it snaps. A wooden ruler will bend a bit and then snap at the bench, a metal ruler will basically bend as it reaches the material yield point and (if it's not a very brittle metal) mostly fold rather than break.

If you put a short length of the wooden ruler out and load it, there will be only a small deflection before it snaps (and if you tap the assembly, it will vibrate at a very fast rate but very small amplitude). Put more of the ruler out and you get more bend and slower rate of vibration with more amplitude. Of course, to carry the same weight acting through a single point ( i.e. the headstock) you have to increase the thickness of the material (because of leverage). However, with clever design you can carry the force (the weight, if you like) out into the beam over a distance so the beam 'thinks' the weight is more evenly distributed along its length - hence the emphasis on lay-up and thickness in c/f. You can do the same thing with metal alloys by mechanically or chemically varying thickness over a distance so the local stress level is kept below the yield point everywhere: any abrupt change in thickness will cause a rise in stress at the point of the change.

I'm being very long-winded here, but to try to be more succinct: with c/f each layer has finite thickness so you can't manage an infinite taper, it will be a series of changes. Pretty obviously, in a short beam there just isn't the room to spread out those changes over much distance, hence the limitations on the amount of compliance that can be inbuilt.

[Alexandru]

Hello,
I have not posted in a long time but wanted to share my thoughts on the Ducati issues. I am on expert at what so ever, the following is just my personal hypothesis.

I believe the problem is not with the front end or frame-less design, but with weight distribution. I think the bike has too much weight over the rear wheel. I think this leads to an imbalance in tire edge grip leading to the front end washing out. More weight over the rear leads to less weight over the front, hence more rear grip and less front grip. Since the fuel is stored under the seat, the problem seems worse on a full tank of gas.(Most of Stoner crashes were at the beginning of races when the tank was full) From the side of the track I could see that when the riders are really pushing, the bikes are sliding both wheels ever so gently through the corner. The extra weight over the rear gives more grip on the rear wheel and this upsets the balance required to execute these drifts. I believe the "Stoner Flick" on corner entry as described by Oscar, was his way over getting the rear to come around better, thus overcoming the excess rear grip. Genius to me really, showing his natural talent.

Or maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[WayneG]

Just Twittered by Alex Briggs -
"Next most popular Q: what's the biggest difference? A: The Ducati has no chassis. It means the engine IS the chassis and results in many innovative ways of mounting components. This would be the biggest difference. It makes some things more difficult than the other brands but also makes some stuff much eaiser. I'm loving the whole deal. All the Ducati people are very dedicated and very keen. For me its great to have worked on winning Honda's, Yamaha's & what I'm confident will be a winning Ducati.............. (yes I know its already a winning bike, but u know what I mean) "

[TwoStroke Institute]

Hey Wayne ask Alex what it means because I don't know

[WayneG]

I think it means "i can only talk in riddles for at least another 3 weeks".

[Rusty Bucket USA]

Hello,
I have not posted in a long time but wanted to share my thoughts on the Ducati issues. I am on expert at what so ever, the following is just my personal hypothesis.

I believe the problem is not with the front end or frame-less design, but with weight distribution. I think the bike has too much weight over the rear wheel...

Interesting stuff. Elsewhere in this (and other discussions) there have been a few mentions of weight distribution problems. Personally, I harped on it when they let it out that Stoner was having wrist problems (still), but going with Hayden's weight balance helped a lot. Then, after getting on the Honda, he could barely avoid drawing an obvious comparison on that exact issue.

FWIW, I don't think one issue (weight balance) excludes the other (problems in the C/F headstock, and the relatively large slab of inflexible material in the middle of the bike known as "the engine"). They're probably both moving targets they didn't want to seriously investigate in the past. They have to, now.

[dmelb]

,,not one to ever be too PC,, my observation and crystal ball future calls,,,

end-of 2011 Crystal Ball shots
Stoner
Lorenzo
Pedrosa
Speedz
Rossi
Hayden
Simoncelli
i

My prediction for 2011 .....



If Casey becomes one with the Honda as I believe he will, then I think we could well see a repeat of 2007 with the rest of the field wondering where he went. For my money he is the best and fastest rider on the planet at the present time and on a bike he is fully confident with I think he may single handedly create a new category a step above "alien".

Incredible insight guys. WayneG, everything you said nearly a year ago has come true, would that classify Casey as a Super Alien?