Chasing the Holy Grail - Title Battle

[OZintheDesert]

Paralleling 2006 the last year of the 990's...

Actually phil I was thinking the same thing however I was also thinking that Dani could very well do a Nicky from '06 and maybe win only a small number of races but consistency in second paying off..

[RedJet]

I based my assessment on on Dani mostly on his last 3+ years where he has been his own biggest hurtle to a championship, not on a night race and an "everybody crash" rain race. I guess that I really meant wins when I wrote "great results". And when he crashes, he crashes good, which is to say he gets hurt enough to almost always miss future races.

Last year I would have agreed with you but this year we have a different Dani. I'll try to explain my meaning as best I can.

Dani has spent 6 months scared shitless, he has said as much himself, that this shoulder injury would end his career. Yet he showed up to races to do his best and didn't embarrass himself in the process. Indeed he garnered a lot of respect from people who just months prior didn't think he had the nads to compete or I should say to "scrap" for the title. But he ended last year under horrible circumstances 2nd in the championship - completely shattered, arm numb, hand cold and unresponsive and with no answers to the problem.

This year started no different with his arm going numb in Qatar. Everyone who saw his face in Parc Ferme could tell he was completely terrified. Finally an answer came but it meant another surgery and no promises. Four weeks after surgery he shows up for Estoril unsure what would happen; would his arm go numb again which would surely mean that his racing career is over?

So here he is, in the race - second, behind Lorenzo praying (no doubt) to any God that would listen that come lap 15 he could still feel his arm. I could tell he was purposely staying in second (didn't know why until he spoke about it after) and I thought he would stay there and maybe back off for a comfortable 20 points. But unbeknown to all of us he was just testing his arm, and when it didn't go numb (and "smiling in his helmet") he took his chance, blew past Lorenzo and within 4 laps gained 3 seconds.

Why did I write this like a story? Well, I'm not going to give all the particulars but believe me I know from the worst of experiences what this victory means. He fought his body and mind through what was a huge roadblock to continue to race. He found out, plain and simple, what he had in courage and mental strength. That builds confidence that you don't get from just any life experience. This is down and dirty. I said to Mr. RJ..."He just became a dangerous mother...he now knows who he is and what he can accomplish".

A defining moment - believe me. The Dani 2011 is not the Dani of past. I'd stake everything on that. It may even change his "luck" as I believe you make your own. We'll see but I don't think you can count him out for the title this year.

I think it is Dani's year.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

I don't disagree with any of that, but...

The only stereotype about Pedrosa that still holds water is this (and it holds for most of the riders): he had the best setup compared to his nearest competitors who didn't. As opposed to having a setup to stink up the race (the usual way he wins), he earned this one "the old-fashioned way". But, there is no denying his team mate was demonstrably "off". What hasn't happened yet is the typical Stoner all-session domination runaway with Pedrosa equal to him. When that happens (and I'm sure it will), that will be the race of ages.

[Cam D]

Dani's Honda seemed a fair bit quicker in a straight line than the Yamaha of Jorge. Jorge's performance in testing was pretty good considering he's waiting for a motor up grade. If Yamaha can get him some more power then it's going to be pretty even up front.

[phil]

Sorry to go backwards when the topic has moved on but I would like to also suggest the postponement Of the Motogi round fell clearly into Dani's hands.
Fortunate yes? or is it 'luck'?

[Albert]

Dani's Honda seemed a fair bit quicker in a straight line than the Yamaha of Jorge. Jorge's performance in testing was pretty good considering he's waiting for a motor up grade. If Yamaha can get him some more power then it's going to be pretty even up front.

True Cam - unless they do like HRC did with Criville when he won his title.
They asked him what he wanted and he said he wanted more power.
Unfortunately they gave him all his power at the top of the rev band where it was almost unusable in normal conditions!

I know that was back in the good old days of 2 stokes and that things have moved on dramatically - I just hope that they don't damage the good points of the motor in order to give Jorgé more power!

[Tormo4ever]

Pedrosa said in an interview sunday night that everytime he asks HRC for a smoother delivery, they come back with HORSEPOWER. He said that Jorge probably has the opposite problem, he asks for power and they give him delivery! He pointed that that s Honda , that they tend to keep their dna, same as Yamaha, regardless of changes in specs and regulations. Honda engine, Yamaha chassis. On a sidenote, he said that Rossi told him that when he first tried the m1 in 2004, the bike turned so much compared to the rcv that in the first test he d always end up too far into the turn. Exactly the opposite to what he s getting now at Ducati!

Championship so close ... i d love to see Dani win, he s a legend , championship or not. He s no less than Casey or Jorge inmho, just been so unlucky. And i think, had he been more ambitious, he could ve taken the title in his first year. Its poetically unfair they all have a championship and Dani doesnt!


Mind you, he s far from being "fit". Let s hope the arm goes well from here on

[Oscar]

Pedrosa said in an interview sunday night that everytime he asks HRC for a smoother delivery, they come back with HORSEPOWER.

Well, at least they've refined their objective - every time Hailwood asked for handling (not more, ANY..) Honda came back with more power...

[CLX]

Pedrosa said in an interview sunday night that everytime he asks HRC for a smoother delivery, they come back with HORSEPOWER.

Well, at least they've refined their objective - every time Hailwood asked for handling (not more, ANY..) Honda came back with more power...

I LOLed.

But I wish they had more tracks like Monza and old Hockenheim where things could be decided on pure grunt.

[yzr750]

But I wish they had more tracks like Monza and old Hockenheim where things could be decided on pure grunt.[/quote]

That couldn't happen because of the fuel limits, I remember a few in superbikes running out of fuel at Monza.

[Cam D]

ahhhhh ....Hockenheim. Some awesome races there. Such a shame.

[sir_nj]

lots of comments about luck, which I don't disagree with but imo it would take an enormous amount of luck on Rossi's part (pretty much starting right now) to considered as potential 2011 WC.

for the other three, it is exciting to see Pedrosa be taken very very seriously as a candidate and I don't think Lorenzo or Stoner would begrudge him that either.

In terms of what strategy each will use, it might be a bit early in the season to start riding for the maximum points and making sure you finish but Stoner probably has no choice. Given the closeness of the three that strategy is only going to pay off if the other two push each other until one or both falls/runs off track. Is that likely to happen? Maybe, but it might take someone like Super Sic to be the catalyst. While he is not 2011 WC material he is probably the major unknown for the top 3 and his antics good (he podiums with clean racing) or bad (he takes someone else out) could easily decide the WC.

[Rossifumi]

it is exciting to see Pedrosa be taken very very seriously as a candidate and I don't think Lorenzo or Stoner would begrudge him that either.

I'd agree, it's been interesting to see. There was quite a widely held view that Stoner's arrival at Honda would be the final nail in the coffin of Dani's Honda career as he got blown away but, so far at least, he's shown himself to be in the same class as Stoner and is being seen in a whole new light. Personally I never doubted it as in the smaller classes Pedrosa had shown himself to be more than a match for Lorenzo and Stoner. Assuming the 3 of them (I'm discounting Rossi for this season) can stay injury free this is looking like it'll be closely fought battle - there'll be no asterixes on the 2011 title!

[Oscar]

There was quite a widely held view that Stoner's arrival at Honda would be the final nail in the coffin of Dani's Honda career as he got blown away but, so far at least, he's shown himself to be in the same class as Stoner and is being seen in a whole new light.

I don't think that anybody who watches the racing with a decent dose of objectivity has had too much belief that Pedrosa lacked the speed to be a fully-fledged alien, but he's certainly moved himself up a notch in the 'fight to the finish' department that perception on his time so far in motoGp had suggested was lacking. We had a debate here earlier on whether his apparent fading in the latter stages of races was a personal attribute or perhaps fuel-mapping oriented (I remain on the fuel-mapping side, incidentally, which begs some interesting questions on the whole rider weight/fuel limits question) but Estoril should bury the first idea forever.

One race does not a season make, of course, but some races appear to be defining marks in a riders career and Pedrosa can rightfully think of his trophy from Estoril to be gold-plated. As Rusty said above, it's going to be one hell of a race when Pedrosa and Stoner go to it toe-to-toe for the whole race; personally, I think that's going to be for more than one race this year and it may well turn out to be epic.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

I didn't mean to suggest it would only happen once, but that the first time will be the one most remembered...

[Oscar]

I didn't mean to suggest it would only happen once, but that the first time will be the one most remembered...

Agree to that - and then it will become the expected pattern for every race and how much do you bet that each time one beats the other we get 'Pedrosa breaks Stoner' - 'Stoner breaks Pedrosa' etc.? However, they're both clean racers, so hopefully there'll be no kamikaze passes because there WILL be a host of contenders to scoop up the spoils.

It's actually, I think, not a bad year to be Lorenzo and defending the #1 plate. Provided he can stay well clear of Torpedocelli...

[motor]

IMHO pedrosa could still be guilty of the popular accusations - not in the league of stoner etc - and still this result could have happened due to a combination of the following factors:

- Honda making a step, however small or large
- Yamaha suffering on the development front, and losing, even if temporarily, one if it's biggest strengths, which being speed and stability in towards the end of the race
- Estoril not being a particularly strong track for Stoner

I don't support any of the accusations targeted towards Pedrosa, but I'm just suggesting a possibility...

[sir_nj]

IMHO pedrosa could still be guilty of the popular accusations - not in the league of stoner etc - and still this result could have happened due to a combination of the following factors:

- Honda making a step, however small or large
- Yamaha suffering on the development front, and losing, even if temporarily, one if it's biggest strengths, which being speed and stability in towards the end of the race
- Estoril not being a particularly strong track for Stoner

I don't support any of the accusations targeted towards Pedrosa, but I'm just suggesting a possibility...

I think their performances from last year are also being considered here so when you realise what Pedrosa did and did with an injury I for one would suggest he is in that league.

One race does not a season make, of course, but some races appear to be defining marks in a riders career and Pedrosa can rightfully think of his trophy from Estoril to be gold-plated. As Rusty said above, it's going to be one hell of a race when Pedrosa and Stoner go to it toe-to-toe for the whole race; personally, I think that's going to be for more than one race this year and it may well turn out to be epic.

Indeed, epic would be welcomed. Perhaps one of the most interesting things will be what they say about each other after a race when it has gone down to the wire. The boys used to be reasonably argy bargy in the 250s but it seems to have lost favour or not be possible with the current electronics. I'm thinking each of them will be "firm but fair"

[phil]

IMHO pedrosa could still be guilty of the popular accusations - ...

But..

I don't support any of the accusations targeted towards Pedrosa, but I'm just suggesting a possibility...

Are these statements not contradictory Motor?

[motor]

I was just expressing my opinion, as well as pointing out a possibility where my opinion could be wrong...

[redmike34]

If you believe in historical precedent, this next race might be the one that matters in regards to the title battle.

I don't know why I just noticed this--I guess reading through this thread just got me to thinking about mechanisms you might use to predict how the championship will wind up, but I noticed something interesting. Since 1990 (inclusive of that year--could have gone back further, but laziness set in. Also doubt 1989 would support this, since Schwantz won the most races that year), the first rider to win two races has been the title winner every year except 1992 (Doohan), 1993 (Rainey), 1999 (Roberts), 2004 (Gibernau), 2006 (Melandri), and 2009 (Lorenzo). So, you're looking at slightly over 70% of the time, the guy who wins two races first is the champion, at least over the last 21 seasons.

If you stretch it out to who's the first to win three races, 1991 (Doohan), 1992 (Doohan), and 2006 (Rossi) are the exceptions, so better than 85% by that standard. In fact, 1992 and 2006 were both very odd years, due to Doohan's injury and the fact that Nicky is the only rider ever to secure the premier-class title with fewer than three wins in his title season, so those years might be worth throwing out of the analysis in any case.

Anyway, just saw it and thought it was interesting... edited to make drunken post a bit clearer.

[chc-pr]

This may be old new to you all, but it was news to me and is worth throwing into the mix of trying to fathom the season from the first three races, Stoner is reported as having trapped a nerve in his back for part of the race which was so painful he was apparently considering stopping in the pits to stretch to try to relieve it before it went of its own accord.

Read into that what you will ...

[Oscar]

This may be old new to you all, but it was news to me and is worth throwing into the mix of trying to fathom the season from the first three races, Stoner is reported as having trapped a nerve in his back for part of the race which was so painful he was apparently considering stopping in the pits to stretch to try to relieve it before it went of its own accord.

Read into that what you will ...

Stoner was on butt-cam trying to fiddle with his back and the podium de-brief opened with the moderator's comment that 'you appeared to have something wrong with your back at one point' (or words to that effect) so he covered it in his answer (though not the fact that he carries an old back injury), which duly copped some flack from some quarters. Conjecture has been that his near-highside on the first lap may have been the trigger. We know he has a fairly-much fused left wrist as well, but (with the possible exception of Lorenzo who seems pretty fit at the moment) all of the aliens are carrying some sort of old injuries; Pedrosa's and Rossi's are currently the most high-profile but it's the nature of the sport that these guys have to ride around with the legacy of their past history.

Stoner was never going to do better than third at Estoril on that day so probably the only effect the back twinge had was open the gap to the first two by a few seconds. If one takes the view that every rider is going to have some bad luck at some time during the season (and I do..) then Stoner may well be getting his karma-quotient over with early and at the same time as he settles into the new bike, so as a Stoner-supporter I'm kinda 'glass half full' on this one.

[Wil55N]

For a Stoner supporter as myself, This weekend was great and disappointing at the same time. I loved the dominance he showed, but fear that without a fighting dani in the mix for future races, stoner may not get the recognition he deserves. We shall see.

[CLX]

It was already very good for Stoner, but it could have been much better for Honda, himself and Pedrosa if not for the incident with Simoncelli.

Given the uncertainty of Pedrosa's recovery and fitness through the season, it's basically a two horse race now. Lorenzo leads on points, Stoner has the better bike. What Lorenzo needs is to hang on to Stoner's tail while the bike is not fast enough and win whenever he has a sniff of a chance. He should play it like that at least while the M1 is traling (not that I think the different is as big as Le Mans made it seem). Stoner simply has to repeat his french performance as many times as possible and hope Dovi, Simoncelli and Rossi get in the Spaniard's way as often as possible.

On paper, and giving it my best and most honest guesstimating shot, Barcelona should be a much much better track for the M1 and posibly put Lorenzo back into his Estoril form. Then comes Silverstone and I think the RC212V should have a slight edge there. Even though it's quite flowing and has winding sections, there are enough straights for Honda's grunt to get to work, assuming they still lead on that until then. When will Yamaha bring a new/revised engine? And who knows what Ducati will be up to? The biggest and most visible upgrade they have had this season is simply letting Rossi ride in reach of Lorenzo.

1 Jorge LORENZO Yamaha SPA 78
2 Casey STONER Honda AUS 66
3 Dani PEDROSA Honda SPA 61
4 Andrea DOVIZIOSO Honda ITA 50
5 Valentino ROSSI Ducati ITA 47

If I had to guess, I'd say the odds currently are
- Lorenzo and Stoner, 40% each;
- Pedrosa 15%, nursing two banged and damaged shoulders while fighting for the title is a very tall order;
- pigs flying and everything else, 5%.