After 2011, who will be the GOATEE ?

[Faster1]

,, and back to the original question of this thread, With a little luck (of consistently having a competitive bike) both Stoner and Lorenzo should be tipped as the favorite for the most wins in the next 6 or 7 years.

Then again, IMO both Sofuoglu and Ianone show the most "natural" dominant speed of the crowd of up-and-comins'.

[Gustav O]

Then again, IMO both Sofuoglu and Ianone show the most "natural" dominant speed of the crowd of up-and-comins'.

But they both have too much of a liking for the gravel trap and inconsitency. I´d put my money on Marquez.

[WayneG]

Then again, IMO both Sofuoglu and Ianone show the most "natural" dominant speed of the crowd of up-and-comins'.

But they both have too much of a liking for the gravel trap and inconsitency. I´d put my money on Marquez.

I'd also put my money on Marquez but I would also keep a very close eye on Vinales. Both these kids are very talented.

[CLX]

I wish Sofuoglu had a ride on an 800cc, just to see what he could make of it.
Maybe he could get a 2011 Honda in 2012! =D

[OZintheDesert]

Sofoglu is pretty fragile though. Look at his season on the litre bikes.. the 800 might be a bit too powerful for him..

[Brad]

It's not directly relevant to the GOATEE thread, (and it has to be taken in the light of Rossi's blighted '10 season), but with the Silverstone win, Stoner now has more wins in his entire motoGp ( i.e. premier-class) career than Rossi has had in the same period.

So, does that make Stoner the GOATSTER ?

(Greatest Of All The SToner ERa)



~ Brad (runs away and hides)

[Cam D]

Sofoglu is pretty fragile though. Look at his season on the litre bikes.. the 800 might be a bit too powerful for him..

I know he has some very sad things happen in his life but I was really surprised at how poorly he went on the bigger bikes. I expected him to be competitive straight up.

[OZintheDesert]

Sofoglu is pretty fragile though. Look at his season on the litre bikes.. the 800 might be a bit too powerful for him..

I know he has some very sad things happen in his life but I was really surprised at how poorly he went on the bigger bikes. I expected him to be competitive straight up.

I think most of us were.It was strange to see him having so many issues (not talking about off track here). But someone said that it was the size of the bikes he found difficult to cope with, like he wasn't big or strong enough. I don't know. It would be interesting to see him on an 800 though, he is a good racer

[Domino]

Sofoglu is pretty fragile though. Look at his season on the litre bikes.. the 800 might be a bit too powerful for him..

I know he has some very sad things happen in his life but I was really surprised at how poorly he went on the bigger bikes. I expected him to be competitive straight up.

I think most of us were.It was strange to see him having so many issues (not talking about off track here). But someone said that it was the size of the bikes he found difficult to cope with, like he wasn't big or strong enough. I don't know. It would be interesting to see him on an 800 though, he is a good racer

With everything that happened in Sofoglu's life that year I would pretty much discount everything that happened on that bike and say his head probably wasn't in it.

[RatsMC]

So, I just built a giant table over at MotoTheory that gives all of the stats phil posted earlier except it includes all riders and is updated in real time. I was rather proud of it since it is a massive query.

However, since I posted it to the site, the whole site has completely stopped working. I don't know why.

[Kropotkin]

Then again, IMO both Sofuoglu and Ianone show the most "natural" dominant speed of the crowd of up-and-comins'.

But they both have too much of a liking for the gravel trap and inconsitency. I´d put my money on Marquez.

I'd also put my money on Marquez but I would also keep a very close eye on Vinales. Both these kids are very talented.

A name to remember. Alex Rins. Very fast in Spain right now, maybe better than Marquez.

[chakraist]

With everything that happened in Sofoglu's life that year I would pretty much discount everything that happened on that bike and say his head probably wasn't in it.

I think we can discount quite a bit of this year as well.

[Oscar]

Well, things are starting to distill in the GOATEE picture, with two contenders now out in the 'number of wins' category: Pedrosa and Lorenzo. Lorenzo faced the biggest handicap anyway so it's a bit unfair on him - he could still squeak in on an average wins per season though that is becoming a pretty steep hill, though not as steep as for Rossi, who will need to take a minimum of seven races out of the remaining 11 rounds to catch Stoner, with Stoner not scoring again this season.

Pedrosa is already out of contention for WC wins so it's now a three-horse race for any measure.

[Brad]

vs Stoner, Rossi had 61 pts lead overall at start of season and 6 podium lead. That is now down to 6 pt and 1 podium lead. He is already way behind on the win count. Looks like if all goes to form, Mugello may be the round where Stoner can take lead in all stats but # of Championships.

[DJH]

Mugello may be the round where Stoner can take lead in all stats but # of Championships.

He'll tie it up come Octoberish.

[Oscar]

Well, one of the 'key statistics' has now been finalised: nobody can get more wins than Stoner. Obviously, Lorenzo is at a disadvantage to the other contenders because of his '08 start in the class but even if he wins every race for the rest of this year he'll end up slightly lower on wins/season average than Stoner.

Methinks the WC count is not going to be decided until very late in the year...

[Oscar]

Ladeez an Gennlemen:

Bar filling in the final numbers, it's over, and it's completely unambiguous.

From a 'machines' POV, the EHE is unlikely to be regarded highly but all the riders were running to the same rules. The relative efficacy of the Ducatis as the era progressed will be long a matter of debate, I am sure, but the advent of Rossi to Ducati has brought a degree of perspective to that discussion that no other rider could have managed, and as a result Stoner's achievements on Ducatis has been given a clear benchmark.

I noted with some interest the surprising similarity of a statistical presentation over on GpOne a little while ago to the table Phil prepared: http://www.gpone.com/index.php/en/201110075135/Casey-Stoner-King-of-the-800-s.html However, for in-depth analysis, we here can claim absolute superiority! (note to Dr. K: claim copyright!!!)

[Tourn46]

I've found a loophole!

Lorenzo is officially the GOATEE

Average Chapionship Position in the 800cc era:

1. Lorenzo = 2.25 (Assuming he stays 2nd this season)
2. Stoner = 2.40
3. Rossi = 3.00 (Assuming he stays 7th this season... 5th would equal Stoner)

Please be aware that I am just having some fun...

[Gustav O]

I've found a loophole!

Lorenzo is officially the GOATEE

Average Chapionship Position in the 800cc era:

1. Lorenzo = 2.25 (Assuming he stays 2nd this season)
2. Stoner = 2.40
3. Rossi = 3.00 (Assuming he stays 7th this season... 5th would equal Stoner)

Please be aware that I am just having some fun...

Filed under: Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Ps. I like this stat as Lorenzo would edn up on top.

[racer50]

interestingly if Pedrosa overtakes Dovi he will be at 2.60

[Oscar]

Actually - and being serious for a moment - Lorenzo is certainly at a disadvantage due to his non-participation in the '07 season. Since all four top spots have been taken by these four guys in every year they have competed head-to-head (which truly shows the tightness of the competition at the top vs. anybody else's chance to get a sniff of success), it would not be too far a stretch to suggest that by extrapolating Lorenzo's average finish to a hypothetical '07 year, he would have come third (you can't come 2.25th..) thus displacing Rossi to fourth and equalling Stoner for average WC finish across the era. (Rationality however suggests it should perhaps be the other way around: Rossi still third and Lorenzo fourth in '07)

We all have whinges about the quality of individual races throughout the era - and maybe when the season is ended we might have some fun debating a list of the 'good' races - but when four guys are grouped within 1 place as an average WC finish across a total of five years for the class - that's pretty damn tight.

[Tourn46]

This isn't just the 800cc era, so feel free to move if you want to, but just out of curiosity I was thinking of a way to devise a method of comparing the riders whole career to date (the finance system was down at work... so I had some time to burn).
For me, the obvious factor that prevents us from doing this directly is the number of race starts... so below is a system I chucked together. I tried to put a narrative behind my logic... any thoughts, suggestions, etc?

I know it's far, far from perfect but I didn't really have as much time to think about it as it perhaps needs.

Oh and it's as of PI 2011, not 2010... couldn't be bother to upload the screen shot again

EDIT: Where I obtained the data from gives a podium as well a win... but it's the same for all riders so it should be fine although I can separate these.

[Oscar]

In his legendary write-up of the races back in the day.. Dr. K used the headline for the first race of the 800s era: 'Welcome to the New Boss'. Well, very few people would say that Stoner was 'the same as the old Boss', and that was certainly held against him pretty much from the start of the era (and continues, in some quarters). But even Dr. K could not (I think!) claim the prescience for that statement that has evolved over five seasons.

Many people - fans and riders alike - hate the 800s with a passion. However, in terms of the equality of machinery and tyres, with the advent of the one-tyre rule, it has been perhaps the most closely-levelled playing field yet in the premier class if one takes the situation over the full span of the era. There is good statistical reason to nominate Yamaha as the most consistent potential winner over the era, with Ducati starting strongly and fading and Honda doing the reverse.

We saw the rise of 'the aliens'. Again, many people feel that this has been inextricably linked to the perceived lack of good racing and (at least partially) blamed on the 800s - yet how many other eras saw even four riders realistically capable of taking a win on any given weekend - and on three different brands. The debate on the potential competitiveness of Ducati in this last season will continue for some time (was it all the bike, all the riders, or somewhere in between that saw Ducati plummet?). That is not really a topic for this thread - though it is fair that people will shade their estimation of rider performances according to their estimation of the machine potential, season by season.

Ultimately though, all the riders were riding to the same rules. Whatever one feels about the 800s does not invalidate that, ultimately, each race was won by the rider who managed to get to the chequered flag first.

All that remains for us to do, I think, is to make the final adjustments to the statistical work of this thread and deliver the final summary.

Phil: yours is the definitive presentation. Do you want any assistance with totalling up things, or have you been beavering away as the season has wound down? I'm happy to do any research you would find useful, or take it on if you're still in the throes of unwinding from your relocation.

[phil]

I keep getting the credit for that post when in fact I only did some of it and put them all together in one post, Brad should be credited with much of the statistical work and starting this very worthy thread in the first place.
Regardless, I do think it's worth finishing the job...you know, so the other websites can 'steal' our data and write it up as their own!
Any assistance would of course be greatly appreciated, so thank you Oscar.
Lets get it done.
We know Stoner is the undeniable GOATEE, his laps leading the race must be through the roof.
I'm trying (slowly) to do crash stats for the 800 era too so a more analytical author can put the numbers into words - it's difficult as many crashes go unseen and it takes research to try and find what happened. But it's still on the books.
Yesterday I was thinking back to Qatar '07 and Casey's first win and Ducati's (see Stoners) dominance compared to the misfortune of Valencia '11..The award for going backwards in the era has to go Ducati while the award for doggedly moving forward goes to Honda. The hubris we spoke of in the thread I started (rather arrorgantly trying to psychoanalyse such a team) is gone. The lesson Rossi taught them, while a bitter pill to swallow, was invaluable!

[Cam D]

I keep getting the credit for that post when in fact I only did some of it and put them all together in one post, Brad should be credited with much of the statistical work and starting this very worthy thread in the first place.
Regardless, I do think it's worth finishing the job...you know, so the other websites can 'steal' our data and write it up as their own!
Any assistance would of course be greatly appreciated, so thank you Oscar.
Lets get it done.
We know Stoner is the undeniable GOATEE, his laps leading the race must be through the roof.
I'm trying (slowly) to do crash stats for the 800 era too so a more analytical author can put the numbers into words - it's difficult as many crashes go unseen and it takes research to try and find what happened. But it's still on the books.
Yesterday I was thinking back to Qatar '07 and Casey's first win and Ducati's (see Stoners) dominance compared to the misfortune of Valencia '11..The award for going backwards in the era has to go Ducati while the award for doggedly moving forward goes to Honda. The hubris we spoke of in the thread I started (rather arrorgantly trying to psychoanalyse such a team) is gone. The lesson Rossi taught them, while a bitter pill to swallow, was invaluable!

Lesson taught? I was wondering if all parties involved may have learned some humility from the experience.