2011 MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 16 - Phillip Island

[RatsMC]

Iveco Australian Grand Prix


This is the sixteenth round of the season.

Given the media frenzy regarding this round, we should have some interesting predictions.



The Set Up:

Everyone is welcome to play and help out! If you don't understand everything, just ask.

How it works: All players are welcome to make predictions on anything related to a race weekend, such as results, rider placement, practice results, crashes, Dorna announcements or rule-making shenanigans, Jeremy Burgess appearing in pit lane in pink footy pajamas – anything as long as the results will be determined by the day after the race (Monday except in the case of Assen).

As the predictions are made, I will record them over at MotoTheory. Once the predictions are recorded, all players can bet for or against that prediction.

In addition to making predictions and betting for or against them, players can also bet on who they believe the race winner will be. These bets can be placed on the same page as the prediction bets.

Each player is given 100 points at the start of each round (race). These 100 points can be placed on any prediction or race winner. You can put them all on a single prediction or put one point on all of them, however you want.

Each prediction has odds associated with it. These odds are determined by how much is bet for or against the prediction. If a lot of players bet for one prediction while not many bet against it, the odds will be much higher on the against side. This means that the players who bet against the prediction will win more if the prediction turns out not to be true. Typically though, lower odds bets are more likely to pay off.

In addition, we are now tracking which player made each prediction and how much action there is on each prediction. At the end of each round the prediction that generated the most activity and the player who made that prediction will be the winner of this round of the Predictor’s Cup. Right now, the Predictor’s Cup is just about bragging rights but we are working on prizes.


Once the race is over, the outcome for each prediction will be determined. Each player wins points for every prediction they bet correctly on. Additionally, there is a bonus of up to 75 points for accuracy. If all of your bets were correct you win the additional 75 point bonus. If you only picked half of your bets correctly you will receive just half of the bonus (37.5 points)

Once the outcomes have been calculated, the results will be posted in this topic.

To make things a little more interesting, prizes will be awarded throughout the season. The season is broken into several sections that each contains several races. At the final race within each section, the player who scored the highest overall will receive a prize such as a MotoMatters calendar or mug or sometimes something really cool brought back from David Emmett’s race coverage travels.



For new players, you can find the complete instructions here: http://www.mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/prediction-contest-instructions.


When posting new predictions please use this format:

NEW Prediction

Rider X will finish 2 laps down - xx points


Where xx points is the amount you want to bet. Note, the statement is in bold. Please back up your prediction with a starting bet. This helps players when deciding whether to bet against you and helps to ensure your bet will be challenged.

Also, please do not put a . at the end of your prediction. I have to copy/paste them into the system and the period makes that more difficult.

Finally, when placing your predictions, please look through the Guidelines for how prediction outcomes will be determined.

[Faster1]

~
NEW

Stoner wins or bins............................. 10 RTPTS
ALl Honda Podium ................................ 10 RTPTS
Hayden Best Duc of Race ...................... 10 RTPTS
Only 3 Yamahas in the top 10 ................ 10 RTPTS

just wanted to help give some more choices

[motomania]

New Predictions :

10 Rpts - Championship will NOT be decided with PI result
10 Rpts - A rider (any class/session) will have an animal/bird interaction on track
10 Rpts - At least one session will deal with wet track/moisture issues

[RatsMC]

Mick, in the animal prediction is that during a race only or during any session?

I like the championship prediction. Tough call. I never bet on Stoner because the odds are never any good but this one has me at a loss.

[Richo]

New prediction

Stoner will get a special livery this weekend - 10 pts


Another prediction I'd like to make but wont be able to prove
"Campground toilets will block up within an hour of campground opening"

[RatsMC]

Added.

There is a risk that that prediction's outcome will be revealed before the close of betting. I think I can close just that prediction as soon as it is announced though.

[SP_won]

New Prediction

Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved. - 50 points




My win it or bin it strategy

Edited to remove duplicate/opposite bet.

[RatsMC]

New Prediction
Stoner takes WC at PI - 50 points

Probably best just to put 50 points AGAINST #887.

[Richo]

Added.

There is a risk that that prediction's outcome will be revealed before the close of betting. I think I can close just that prediction as soon as it is announced though.

Agreed, although in the past they have not revealed the new livery until the Sunday, so we will see.

[SP_won]

New Prediction
Stoner takes WC at PI - 50 points

Probably best just to put 50 points AGAINST #887.

Roger that. Prediction removed.

[motomania]

Mick, in the animal prediction is that during a race only or during any session?

Any of the three classes during any of the 6 "sessions" they run.

[RatsMC]

I just looked at the prediction itself and you were perfectly clear, I just missed it.

[RatsMC]

Just over 24 hours until betting closes



Updated Odds

*Accurate at the time posted. Any bets placed after this is posted will change the odds. Please check here for up-to-date odds.





Unchallenged Predictions

>

ID	Prediction	Points to be Challenged
883	Stoner wins or bins	10
889	At least one session will deal with wet track/moisture issues	10
890	Stoner will get a special livery this weekend	10

Challenged Predictions

>

ID	Prediction	Odds For	Odds Against
884	All Honda Podium	4.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
885	Hayden Best Duc of Race	4.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
886	Only 3 Yamahas in the top 10	3.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
887	Championship will NOT be decided with PI result	1.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
888	A rider (any class/session) will have an animal/bird interaction on track	3.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
891	Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved	2.6 to 1	1.6 to 1

Race Winner Odds

>

Rider	Total Bet	Odds
Stoner	20	1.00 to 1
Hopkins	0	20.00 to 1
Edwards	0	20.00 to 1
Pedrosa	0	20.00 to 1
Rossi	0	20.00 to 1
Crutchlow	0	20.00 to 1
Barbera	0	20.00 to 1
Aoyama	0	20.00 to 1
Dovizioso	0	20.00 to 1
DePuniet	0	20.00 to 1
Elias	0	20.00 to 1
Capirossi	0	20.00 to 1
Hayden	0	20.00 to 1
Abraham	0	20.00 to 1
Simoncelli	0	20.00 to 1
Bautista	0	20.00 to 1
Spies	0	20.00 to 1
Lorenzo	0	20.00 to 1

[Richo]

This is what I have wasted my points on this week.

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
884	All Honda Podium	10 points	For
887	Championship will NOT be decided with PI result	10 points	For
889	At least one session will deal with wet track/moisture issues	10 points	For
890	Stoner will get a special livery this weekend	10 points	For
891	Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved	10 points	Against

And 50 points on Stoner to win

[rumerz]

10 points the race will be better if you're stoned.

[SP_won]

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
887	Championship will NOT be decided with PI result	50 points	Against
891	Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved	50 points	For

Win it or bin it strategy - reckon I'll most likely end up in the gravel again.

[MPA]

10 points the race will be better if you're stoned.

lol I've tried that in the past and it ends up with me rewinding about 100 times because I lose track of what's going on

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
885	Hayden Best Duc of Race	20 points	Against
887	Championship will NOT be decided with PI result	15 points	For
888	A rider (any class/session) will have an animal/bird interaction on track	20 points	Against
891	Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved	40 points	Against

[Gustav O]

I only get this reply when I try to place my bets.

One of two things have happened: 1.You do not have enough points for that bet or 2. Betting is closed

Anyway.
I´d like to go like this.

884 All Honda podium 20 PTS against
885 Hayden best Duc of race 20 PTS against
886 Only 3 Yamahas in the top 10. 10 PTS for
890 Stoner will get special livery 10 PTS against
891 Cudlin places higher than Rossi 10 PTS against

20 PTS Stoner to win
10 PTS Lorenzo to win

[RatsMC]

I actually was working on that while you were trying to post them. All fixed.

[Gustav O]

I actually was working on that while you were trying to post them. All fixed.

Aha.
I´ll place my bets now then.

[Pantah]

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
884	All Honda Podium	10 points	For
885	Hayden Best Duc of Race	20 points	Against
886	Only 3 Yamahas in the top 10	10 points	For
888	A rider (any class/session) will have an animal/bird interaction on track	10 points	For
891	Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved	20 points	Against

[Squidpuppet]

Question...

886 Only 3 Yamahas in the top 10

Does that mean three MUST finish in the top ten? Or, does it mean that fewer than four will be in the top ten?

[Desmo44]

Win it or bin it here too.

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
884	All Honda Podium	25 points	For
885	Hayden Best Duc of Race	25 points	For
887	Championship will NOT be decided with PI result	25 points	Against
891	Cudlin places higher than Rossi, or completes more race laps if crashes/DNFs involved	25 points	For

[Faster1]

Question...

886 Only 3 Yamahas in the top 10

Does that mean three MUST finish in the top ten? Or, does it mean that fewer than four will be in the top ten?

FUDGE ! ! ! could I be any more vague

sorry

the intention was that no more than 3 Yamahas would finish 10th or better, poor performance , crash etc

I'll leave it up to RATS and the people who put points on it to protest of change..

[Squidpuppet]

Thanks.^