Ducati goings on. Part 2.

[Oscar]

It looks as if we have hit a bit of cabin fever here, with the lack of anything truly new to chew on making us break out the cheap alcohol, get a bit squiffy and sing some of the old songs around the fireside.. and go over the same old ground. 53 pages of a mostly civilised and at times incredibly informative, researched, analytical thread without breaking out the old Rossi-Stoner flame wars has to be some sort of a record for any motoGp forum, surely? Let's at least try to avoid dragging it down, there's a week so before the first sight of horses approaching Mafeking. OK, we need something to talk about, but at least let's try to keep it relevant to the Ducati thread.

Rossi moving to Ducati was mega. Ever since '07, the constant underlying plot of motoGp has been Rossi vs. Stoner, with a major sub-plot of Rossi vs. Lorenzo. In the latter case, they were on basically identical bikes in '10 and to a considerable degree Rossi's shoulder injury initially, and then the leg injury, provided a pretty handy mechanism by which fans of either Rossi or Lorenzo could tie up their boat to avoid being swept away in the stream.

That left the burning question of Rossi vs. Stoner on the same bike. I don't believe for a moment that Rossi was in any way unthinking about the conclusions that would be drawn even from the first Valencia test day. Given the increasing level of hostilities between him and Stoner, he couldn't have come out beforehand and said 'the Ducati is obvious crap' - because that would have been indirectly an affirmation of Stoner's ability. Unwisely, he took some late pot-shots at Stoner (which I suspect he will rue for a very long time) that ratched up the expectations higher: basicallty saying that if one rode the bike intelligently/consistently/with more conviction, one could do better than Stoner. Basically he said to the world: 'give me that bike and I'll show you how to ride it properly and successfully.'

From what we are now led to believe, it took him as few as three laps on Stoner's old bike to realise that if revenge is a dish best served cold, he had been served up a glacier for '11. He obviously said as much to Preziosi, since we had the 'we have to give Valentino a bike he can ride like Valentino' statement almost immediately. Stoner running away at the head of the test times was insult to injury: a blowtorch to your backside is little comfort when your lips are frozen to the freezer door. Expectations dropped like a helicopter glides. Looking at Stoner's data must have been like looking into what one hoped was a local depression and discovering that it was an abyss with lava bubbling at the bottom.

I don't buy the idea that Rossi has suddenly gone from a potential race winner to a mid-peleton rider in one season. The 800cc Ducs were mongrels and bit every rider at times; only Stoner learned how to use that aggression effectively; Hayden learned how to keep his limbs away from the jaws, at least, and Capirex and Melandri were shredded. Ducati realise that they simply cannot leave a Rossi bleeding in the gutter and walk away, but the question in my mind is - can they actually train the mongrel to behave, or will they just end up muzzling it?

[Richo]

PLEASE let the testing and more importantly RACING begin...

I'm with you on this one Gustav, we are all going a bit stir crazing waiting for the season to start again. Bit like junkies waiting for their next fix.

[sir_nj]

PLEASE let the testing and more importantly RACING begin...

I'm with you on this one Gustav, we are all going a bit stir crazing waiting for the season to start again. Bit like junkies waiting for their next fix.

hey! what do you mean "bit like"? I think you mean "exactly like"

anyone have any thoughts on where to from here for Ducati if they still are not competitive towards the end of the season? Who knows they may get it right out of the box but I don't think so. It just seems that the CRT is making things very very murky for the factories and with no sort of end to the sponsorship financial woes you would have to think that Ducati may not have a plan B (as Rossi puts it) for MotoGP but they may well have a plan B if it goes belly up as far as their overal involvement in motorcycle racing. Added to that they will NOT get another proven alien after this year if they don't get the bike working and I very much doubt if Rossi would re-sign.

It is a double edge (maybe eve triple edged) sword, Rossi's contract finishing, CRT getting more concessions, the first year with an completely new style of frame for Ducati. Go hard or go home I think is what they are thinking (for this year at least).

[tom]

Unless they show marked improvement this year to the point where they are sure they will be competitive the following year I just cant see them staying.

[motogpmd]

It looks as if we have hit a bit of cabin fever here, with the lack of anything truly new to chew on making us break out the cheap alcohol, get a bit squiffy and sing some of the old songs around the fireside.. and go over the same old ground. 53 pages of a mostly civilised and at times incredibly informative, researched, analytical thread without breaking out the old Rossi-Stoner flame wars has to be some sort of a record for any motoGp forum, surely? Let's at least try to avoid dragging it down, there's a week so before the first sight of horses approaching Mafeking. OK, we need something to talk about, but at least let's try to keep it relevant to the Ducati thread.

Rossi moving to Ducati was mega. Ever since '07, the constant underlying plot of motoGp has been Rossi vs. Stoner, with a major sub-plot of Rossi vs. Lorenzo. In the latter case, they were on basically identical bikes in '10 and to a considerable degree Rossi's shoulder injury initially, and then the leg injury, provided a pretty handy mechanism by which fans of either Rossi or Lorenzo could tie up their boat to avoid being swept away in the stream.

That left the burning question of Rossi vs. Stoner on the same bike. I don't believe for a moment that Rossi was in any way unthinking about the conclusions that would be drawn even from the first Valencia test day. Given the increasing level of hostilities between him and Stoner, he couldn't have come out beforehand and said 'the Ducati is obvious crap' - because that would have been indirectly an affirmation of Stoner's ability. Unwisely, he took some late pot-shots at Stoner (which I suspect he will rue for a very long time) that ratched up the expectations higher: basicallty saying that if one rode the bike intelligently/consistently/with more conviction, one could do better than Stoner. Basically he said to the world: 'give me that bike and I'll show you how to ride it properly and successfully.'

From what we are now led to believe, it took him as few as three laps on Stoner's old bike to realise that if revenge is a dish best served cold, he had been served up a glacier for '11. He obviously said as much to Preziosi, since we had the 'we have to give Valentino a bike he can ride like Valentino' statement almost immediately. Stoner running away at the head of the test times was insult to injury: a blowtorch to your backside is little comfort when your lips are frozen to the freezer door. Expectations dropped like a helicopter glides. Looking at Stoner's data must have been like looking into what one hoped was a local depression and discovering that it was an abyss with lava bubbling at the bottom.

I don't buy the idea that Rossi has suddenly gone from a potential race winner to a mid-peleton rider in one season. The 800cc Ducs were mongrels and bit every rider at times; only Stoner learned how to use that aggression effectively; Hayden learned how to keep his limbs away from the jaws, at least, and Capirex and Melandri were shredded. Ducati realise that they simply cannot leave a Rossi bleeding in the gutter and walk away, but the question in my mind is - can they actually train the mongrel to behave, or will they just end up muzzling it?

Well said Oscar, that's as good a summary of the Stoner/Rossi/Ducati situation as I've read anywhere. Regardless of our favorites we all wait with bated breath to see what, if anything, Ducati and Rossi can achieve with the GP12.

As for the future for Ducati and Rossi, Preziosi has suggested that it will take more than just this year to bring Ducati back to full competitiveness. Rossi for his part, has indicated that he plans to stay in MotoGP for at least another couple of years, but with whom? Rossi has already acknowledged that Honda and Yamaha are not options. What about Rossi on a CRT bike? If Ezpeleta gets his way and the CRT bikes become competitive through rule changes it might just be an option. An Aprilia powered CRT bike with Rossi as their rider anyone? Maybe not so far fetched an idea. Great publicity for the CRT concept.

[Cam D]

http://www.twowheelsblog.com/post/8841/maurizio-arrivabene-we-believe-in-ducatis-project#continua
Quite an interesting read....

[Squidpuppet]

Added to that they will NOT get another proven alien after this year if they don't get the bike working and I very much doubt if Rossi would re-sign.

Rossi has no options. He has to stay with Ducati and make it work or go car racing. Pretty weird to think about, eh? Nine time world champ with nowhere to go.

[Squidpuppet]

http://www.twowheelsblog.com/post/8841/maurizio-arrivabene-we-believe-in-ducatis-project#continua
Quite an interesting read....

Thanks Cam. Yes, interesting.

[Oscar]

http://www.twowheelsblog.com/post/8841/maurizio-arrivabene-we-believe-in-ducatis-project#continua
Quite an interesting read....

Marlboro got its fill of camera time and column-inches in '11 (heck, we got a lot more of the mid-pack racing interest than in previous years, and not JUST on a red bike) so while that continues I imagine they'll be happy to continue. However, if the Ducati exposure becomes second-rate because they're not producing an interesting story, then watch how fast the Marlboro dollars dry up.

[sir_nj]

From my own view point I felt last years advertising for Ducati (and their sponsors) was a disaster. I know there is supposed to be no such thing as bad advertising but what happens when you stick a 9xWC on your bike and eventually even he says its shit? As I said above, I don't think Rossi's failure on the Duc has dragged him down at all but simply pushed Stoner up. While at the same time it has put a massive great question mark over Ducati.

As for the Rossi fans I wonder how happy they were to have him scrapping for 6th and what will they think of Ducati if he is struggling again this year. It seems that once again the combination has the potential to be a dream made in either heaven or hell, and with a new new bike the latter seems to be more likely.

Rossi has no options. He has to stay with Ducati and make it work or go car racing. Pretty weird to think about, eh? Nine time world champ with nowhere to go.

or go car racing IS an option

I think he would take it myself. Why bang yourself up at his age with 9xWC if you can't get the bike to be competitive and the other 3 aliens are all on fast bikes? He has bugger all to prove and seems to be quite happy to admit that the other 3 are his peers (there is no shame in that). Not only that I suspect he could do quite well in WRC.

What about Rossi on a CRT bike? If Ezpeleta gets his way and the CRT bikes become competitive through rule changes it might just be an option. An Aprilia powered CRT bike with Rossi as their rider anyone? Maybe not so far fetched an idea. Great publicity for the CRT concept.

Only if he did it like Lawson went to Cagiva (a big tick for Eddie when he did that), i.e., just to help improve the CRTs and therefore the spectacle.

[motor]

http://www.motogp.com/en/videos/2012/Be ... t+the+GP12

[RatsMC]

Well, that was like a movie trailer.

I swear if Ducati pull one out of the hat and are winning races, I will be certain that this whole episode was scripted by some Spanish/Italian cabal headed by Dorna and Rossi.

[oldboyonrgv]

And I think nothing would make us all happier!

[RatsMC]

And I think nothing would make us all happier!

Very true.

[e-esQue]

I am amazed that you think your subjective analysis is better than looking at the stats. The situation is so simple: Rossi won less races after 2006 because the opposition was so much stronger. I don't know of any person of note in the sport who thinks any differently. You are trying to tell us that Capirossi was an alien in 2006. Stoner won more races in a single season (twice actually) than Capirossi won in his entire MotoGP career.

If Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo win more races, then of course Rossi wins less. That says nothing about Rossi's skills, only that Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo are on the same level as Rossi (that's why people talk about four aliens), which had never happened before in Rossi's MotoGP career.

It is Rossi himself who said he needed to improve his starts after Stoner's dominance in 2007. It is Rossi who said that the standard of competition was much higher after Stoner, Pedrosa and later Lorenzo arrived. It is Rossi who said that Stoner had forced him to raise his game.

I flatly reject your hypothesis (and that is all it is) that Rossi has been in decline for the last six or seven years. Frankly the whole idea is just plain ludicrous. I see no decline whatever in Rossi's skills up until the end of 2010. There are question marks about Rossi's performance in 2011, but I expect that if Rossi gets a bike to his liking he will be a leading contender once again for race wins, maybe even the championship if the bike is good enough.

Sorry for taking a while, I missed this response.

So you admit that in you opinion Rossi winning less and his opponents winning more will always automatically mean, that his opponents are better than that Rossi is in decline? I'd say it's about 80 % of the latter and 20 % of the former since for example in 2006 Rossi didn't have 3 opponents of this level but 1 and then quite a few slightly below that.

The 2004 starts are still there to be watched, it's very easy to see the difference in the attention he had for the whole performance in all aspects of the weekend compared to 2003 and 2002. 2003 is a season where he truly clowned around, that was his chance IMO for a record breaking season more than 2005 considering he had the best bike and was in his peak as a rider, but the Yamaha-talks and other stuff clearly got in his way. Take the poor first half of Welkom, mistakes in the fight against Sete in Le Mans, cautiousness in Assen-rain, silly mistake in passing Capi under yellows in Donington, the truly ridiculous mistake in the last corner of Sachsenring (perhaps the worst mistake of his career) and the cat-mouse play with Max costing him by going to the gravel in Motegi before showing clearly superior pace to anyone and he would've won 13-15 races from 16 in 2003 had he had the same concentration than in 2004.

I'd say Rossi had to "raise his game" in the sense of making compromises in his approach towards the season in 2008, and truly maximising his chances which he clearly did. But considering that had he been his in his 2004-level, he never would've had to make compromises, meaning he was on the decline even then.

I don't really understand your last paragraph. Why do you think I'm saying Rossi won't be fighting for wins and titles anymore if he gets a competitive bike? Trust me, I would love it to be like that but that's not at all what I'm saying. All I'm saying there's been a clear decline in his performance since 2006 for various reasons. That doesn't rule out any possibilities for his success in 2012 and beyond.

[Kropotkin]

I am amazed that you think your subjective analysis is better than looking at the stats. The situation is so simple: Rossi won less races after 2006 because the opposition was so much stronger. I don't know of any person of note in the sport who thinks any differently. You are trying to tell us that Capirossi was an alien in 2006. Stoner won more races in a single season (twice actually) than Capirossi won in his entire MotoGP career.

If Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo win more races, then of course Rossi wins less. That says nothing about Rossi's skills, only that Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo are on the same level as Rossi (that's why people talk about four aliens), which had never happened before in Rossi's MotoGP career.

It is Rossi himself who said he needed to improve his starts after Stoner's dominance in 2007. It is Rossi who said that the standard of competition was much higher after Stoner, Pedrosa and later Lorenzo arrived. It is Rossi who said that Stoner had forced him to raise his game.

I flatly reject your hypothesis (and that is all it is) that Rossi has been in decline for the last six or seven years. Frankly the whole idea is just plain ludicrous. I see no decline whatever in Rossi's skills up until the end of 2010. There are question marks about Rossi's performance in 2011, but I expect that if Rossi gets a bike to his liking he will be a leading contender once again for race wins, maybe even the championship if the bike is good enough.

Sorry for taking a while, I missed this response.

So you admit that in you opinion Rossi winning less and his opponents winning more will always automatically mean, that his opponents are better than that Rossi is in decline? I'd say it's about 80 % of the latter and 20 % of the former since for example in 2006 Rossi didn't have 3 opponents of this level but 1 and then quite a few slightly below that.

The 2004 starts are still there to be watched, it's very easy to see the difference in the attention he had for the whole performance in all aspects of the weekend compared to 2003 and 2002. 2003 is a season where he truly clowned around, that was his chance IMO for a record breaking season more than 2005 considering he had the best bike and was in his peak as a rider, but the Yamaha-talks and other stuff clearly got in his way. Take the poor first half of Welkom, mistakes in the fight against Sete in Le Mans, cautiousness in Assen-rain, silly mistake in passing Capi under yellows in Donington, the truly ridiculous mistake in the last corner of Sachsenring (perhaps the worst mistake of his career) and the cat-mouse play with Max costing him by going to the gravel in Motegi before showing clearly superior pace to anyone and he would've won 13-15 races from 16 in 2003 had he had the same concentration than in 2004.

I'd say Rossi had to "raise his game" in the sense of making compromises in his approach towards the season in 2008, and truly maximising his chances which he clearly did. But considering that had he been his in his 2004-level, he never would've had to make compromises, meaning he was on the decline even then.

I don't really understand your last paragraph. Why do you think I'm saying Rossi won't be fighting for wins and titles anymore if he gets a competitive bike? Trust me, I would love it to be like that but that's not at all what I'm saying. All I'm saying there's been a clear decline in his performance since 2006 for various reasons. That doesn't rule out any possibilities for his success in 2012 and beyond.

Can we avoid yet another descent into the Rossi is/isn't past it / Stoner is/isn't better than Rossi argument that these discussions tend to devolve into? By all means debate it, but don't debate it in multiple threads. Thanks...

[motogpmd]

I am amazed that you think your subjective analysis is better than looking at the stats. The situation is so simple: Rossi won less races after 2006 because the opposition was so much stronger. I don't know of any person of note in the sport who thinks any differently. You are trying to tell us that Capirossi was an alien in 2006. Stoner won more races in a single season (twice actually) than Capirossi won in his entire MotoGP career.

If Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo win more races, then of course Rossi wins less. That says nothing about Rossi's skills, only that Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo are on the same level as Rossi (that's why people talk about four aliens), which had never happened before in Rossi's MotoGP career.

It is Rossi himself who said he needed to improve his starts after Stoner's dominance in 2007. It is Rossi who said that the standard of competition was much higher after Stoner, Pedrosa and later Lorenzo arrived. It is Rossi who said that Stoner had forced him to raise his game.

I flatly reject your hypothesis (and that is all it is) that Rossi has been in decline for the last six or seven years. Frankly the whole idea is just plain ludicrous. I see no decline whatever in Rossi's skills up until the end of 2010. There are question marks about Rossi's performance in 2011, but I expect that if Rossi gets a bike to his liking he will be a leading contender once again for race wins, maybe even the championship if the bike is good enough.

Sorry for taking a while, I missed this response.

So you admit that in you opinion Rossi winning less and his opponents winning more will always automatically mean, that his opponents are better than that Rossi is in decline? I'd say it's about 80 % of the latter and 20 % of the former since for example in 2006 Rossi didn't have 3 opponents of this level but 1 and then quite a few slightly below that.

The 2004 starts are still there to be watched, it's very easy to see the difference in the attention he had for the whole performance in all aspects of the weekend compared to 2003 and 2002. 2003 is a season where he truly clowned around, that was his chance IMO for a record breaking season more than 2005 considering he had the best bike and was in his peak as a rider, but the Yamaha-talks and other stuff clearly got in his way. Take the poor first half of Welkom, mistakes in the fight against Sete in Le Mans, cautiousness in Assen-rain, silly mistake in passing Capi under yellows in Donington, the truly ridiculous mistake in the last corner of Sachsenring (perhaps the worst mistake of his career) and the cat-mouse play with Max costing him by going to the gravel in Motegi before showing clearly superior pace to anyone and he would've won 13-15 races from 16 in 2003 had he had the same concentration than in 2004.

I'd say Rossi had to "raise his game" in the sense of making compromises in his approach towards the season in 2008, and truly maximising his chances which he clearly did. But considering that had he been his in his 2004-level, he never would've had to make compromises, meaning he was on the decline even then.

I don't really understand your last paragraph. Why do you think I'm saying Rossi won't be fighting for wins and titles anymore if he gets a competitive bike? Trust me, I would love it to be like that but that's not at all what I'm saying. All I'm saying there's been a clear decline in his performance since 2006 for various reasons. That doesn't rule out any possibilities for his success in 2012 and beyond.

Your response is just playing with semantics. The situation is clear to most to most people. Going round in circles like this is pointless. I don't agree with you at all, lets just leave it at that.

[e-esQue]

Okay. thanks for your well though-out response.

[motomania]

Okay. thanks for your well though-out response.

Almost a full week of chumming and yet, no one would bite

[RatsMC]

Okay. thanks for your well though-out response.

The owner of the site asked everyone to quit this discussion (as have I) the response you received was appropriate.

[motor]

Meanwhile, going ons at the Ducati rider's moto ranch : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntvKS1OH97g

[Domino]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the GP12, Straight from Rossi:

[boson]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the GP12, Straight from Rossi:

For comparison's sake


note starter motor hole position, engine probably rolled back in chassis

[Squidpuppet]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the GP12, Straight from Rossi:]

note starter motor hole position, engine probably rolled back in chassis

Hard to be sure from the pics, but it looks raised as well.

[Domino]

Anyone else notice how circular this thread is....

Look, engineering is always a compromise and with racing you try and find the best solution under a given set of rules. Ducati chose to build a bike with a very strong engine and chose to capitalize on that by building a bike which favors traction at the rear to capitalize on drive out of the corners instead of corner entry. Based on what i have read I suspect their CoG is low and forward which tends to suit drive. What I think they need is to move it back and up to generate a bit of fore-aft pitch which will work the tires more by generating weight transfer. I think by now it is obvious that Ducati's problems (aside from the tires) do not stem from one particular part, but rather the sum of those parts. The bike they chose to build is simply not the best solution under the set of rules. There is nothing wrong with anything they have done so far from a technical perspective, but under the constraints of the current rules it simply was the wrong choice.

...move the engine back and up? Where have I seen that before?