2012 MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 1 - Qatar

[phil]

Sorry Rats I'm unable to post my bets.
I think the problem is here at my end.
Could you please post them and I'll have it sorted by the next round.


911 Crutchlow will score more points than Rossi 15 against
916 Spies will beat Lorenzo 15 against
917 Bradl will be the first non-factory rider to the flag 5 For
923 Tyre degradation will not be a deciding factor in any of the top 3 placings 15 For
Stoner to win 10
Lorenzo to win 8
Pedrosa to win 6
Spies to win 1

[Squidpuppet]

At current pace Rossi will be 31.68 seconds behind Stoner.

[RatsMC]

phil and faster1, I'll post your bets shortly. Still not sure what happened to faster1's bets but I'll be adding some checks into the system to make sure I know what happened if it occurs again.

[RatsMC]

Sorry Rats I'm unable to post my bets.
I think the problem is here at my end.
Could you please post them and I'll have it sorted by the next round.


911 Crutchlow will score more points than Rossi 15 against
916 Spies will beat Lorenzo 15 against
917 Bradl will be the first non-factory rider to the flag 5 For
923 Tyre degradation will not be a deciding factor in any of the top 3 placings 15 For
Stoner to win 10
Lorenzo to win 8
Pedrosa to win 6
Spies to win 1

phil, can you check your bets. With the ones you place earlier, I am getting over 100 points. If I were to delete those, it would be less than 100 points. I'm not sure what what you intended.

[phil]

Sorry Rats I'm an idiot!
True, my total adds up to 105.
I'll let you handle it as you see fit.
Perhaps a forfit of all those bets now FP1 has passed??...

[Wr3ckogniz3]

At current pace Rossi is at maximum 22 secs back not 31.
In a racing scenario its even more different in favor for Rossi esp with the ducs top speed being a lot higher then the rest
I would say 10-15 sec back is about right given no improvements come race day.

[Squidpuppet]

At current pace Rossi is at maximum 22 secs back not 31.
In a racing scenario its even more different in favor for Rossi esp with the ducs top speed being a lot higher then the rest
I would say 10-15 sec back is about right given no improvements come race day.

What?

If you are commenting on my post, it was made yesterday, when Rossi was 1.44 seconds off the pace.

1.44 X 22 = 31.68

Today (FP3) he is 1.233 off the pace.

1.233 X 22 = 27.126

He needs to improve by over .5 per lap (and if the competition does not improve at all) just to lose by the same amount as last year.

[Gustav O]

Can't compare times like that as we don't know their race pace.

[Squidpuppet]

Can't compare times like that as we don't know their race pace.

Frankly, after looking at the analysis for every session, I think race pace numbers are going to be worse. Just going by grouping and consistency. It aint pretty.

[RatsMC]

phil, I just went in the order that you posted them until you ran out of points so you ended with 2 points on Pedrosa. You should check and post your bets here.


My bets:

>

ID	Prediction	Bet
915	Lorenzo will race with a harder compound rear tire than Spies	10 points	Against
918	Casey Stoner will Talk About Ally (his daughter) in post race conference	10 points	Against
920	RDP to finish ahead of any 2 satellite bikes	10 points	Against
925	At least one CRT gets lapped*	10 points	Against
926	Bautista finishes higher than Dovi	10 points	Against
929	Rossi will finish further from the winner than he did in 2011 (+16.431) DNF seen as further behind than 2011	10 points	Against

Plues 20 on Lorenzo and 5 on spies.


Apologies for not posting these before FP1, I simply forgot. However, I think the fact that I failed to bet my last 15 points should provide fairly strong evidence that I am am a space-case rather than a cheater.

[Gustav O]

Frankly, after looking at the analysis for every session, I think race pace numbers are going to be worse. Just going by grouping and consistency. It aint pretty.

I guess you are right...

[phil]

phil....

Thank you Sir.

I think the fact that I failed to bet my last 15 points should provide fairly strong evidence that I am am a space-case rather than a cheater.

[RatsMC]

Provisional Outcomes

Please review for accuracy.

>

ID	Prediction	Outcome
911	Crutchlow will score more points than Rossi	For
912	Karel Abraham secures more points than all the CRT teams combined	Against
913	Casey Stoner will do a stand-up wheelie before or after the start finish (but on the straight) at the end of the race	Against
915	Lorenzo will race with a harder compound rear tire than Spies	???
916	Spies will beat Lorenzo	Against
917	Bradl will be the first non-factory rider to the flag	Against
918	Casey Stoner will Talk About Ally (his daughter) in post race conference	???
919	Stoner to NOT win	For
920	RDP to finish ahead of any 2 satellite bikes	Against
921	Randy DePuniet will crash during the Qatar race	Against
922	Tino 46 will finish better than 7th this year at Qatar	Against
923	Tyre degradation will not be a deciding factor in any of the top 3 placings	For
928	Bautista top 5 finish	Against
929	Rossi will finish further from the winner than he did in 2011 (+16.431) DNF seen as further behind than 2011	For
924	Hayden to finish behind Rossi	Against
925	At least one CRT gets lapped*	Against
926	Bautista finishes higher than Dovi	Against
927	top three finishing order determined by lap 5	Against

I haven't seen the post race interviews so I do not yet know the outcome for 918 and I believe that everyone was on the same rear so 915 is against but I do not have confirmation of this.

[Squidpuppet]

At current pace Rossi will be 31.68 seconds behind Stoner.

Can't compare times like that as we don't know their race pace.

Frankly, after looking at the analysis for every session, I think race pace numbers are going to be worse. Just going by grouping and consistency. It aint pretty.

I should have made you a side wager.

[Gustav O]

I should have made you a side wager.

YOu didn´t include my last post did you. I would never have taken the wager after FP3..

[Gustav O]

Provisional Outcomes

Please review for accuracy.

>

ID	Prediction	Outcome
911	Crutchlow will score more points than Rossi	For
912	Karel Abraham secures more points than all the CRT teams combined	Against
913	Casey Stoner will do a stand-up wheelie before or after the start finish (but on the straight) at the end of the race	Against
915	Lorenzo will race with a harder compound rear tire than Spies	???
916	Spies will beat Lorenzo	Against
917	Bradl will be the first non-factory rider to the flag	Against
918	Casey Stoner will Talk About Ally (his daughter) in post race conference	???
919	Stoner to NOT win	For
920	RDP to finish ahead of any 2 satellite bikes	Against
921	Randy DePuniet will crash during the Qatar race	Against
922	Tino 46 will finish better than 7th this year at Qatar	Against
923	Tyre degradation will not be a deciding factor in any of the top 3 placings	For
928	Bautista top 5 finish	Against
929	Rossi will finish further from the winner than he did in 2011 (+16.431) DNF seen as further behind than 2011	For
924	Hayden to finish behind Rossi	Against
925	At least one CRT gets lapped*	Against
926	Bautista finishes higher than Dovi	Against
927	top three finishing order determined by lap 5	Against

I haven't seen the post race interviews so I do not yet know the outcome for 918 and I believe that everyone was on the same rear so 915 is against but I do not have confirmation of this.

No talk about Stoners daughter in the official press conference. Spies and Lorenzo had hard tires

[Nachlauf]

I believe that everyone was on the same rear so 915 is against but I do not have confirmation of this.

Yeah hard tire for Spies, so against is correct. The only one to race with the wide-stripe medium I saw was Ellison.

[Faster1]

~
Have to disagree with 923.

Stoners tire degradation WAS a contributing factor.

IMO - should be "against" as the bet read "will not"

[Japhrodisiac]

~
Have to disagree with 923.

Stoners tire degradation WAS a contributing factor.

IMO - should be "against" as the bet read "will not"

That's a toughie, the person whom it supposedly effects says otherwise, but outwardly it would appear to be so.
My vote would be to take Stoner at his word, as anything else is supposition on our part

[Tourn46]

~
Have to disagree with 923.

Stoners tire degradation WAS a contributing factor.

IMO - should be "against" as the bet read "will not"

That's a toughie, the person whom it supposedly effects says otherwise, but outwardly it would appear to be so.
My vote would be to take Stoner at his word, as anything else is supposition on our part

I hope this comes across correctly, because I don't want to throw the word 'liar' about... but why would any racer admit they ran out of tyre? It's the first race of the season and as I said in a previous comment... he's a clever enough lad to sort it out next race IF it was an issue.

If he came out and said his tyres were too worn... that's giving a psychological advatage to the opposition.

Personally, I think he finished the race on worse tyres than Lor and Ped and that it was a factor... but whether or not it was a DECIDING factor is another matter.

I think that the bet is too hard to prove for or against and should be scrapped.

[Nachlauf]

I haven't read of any rider mentioning shot tires at all. Not even Ellison, who raced the option compound. In fact Ellison clocked the same times in his final laps that he did in the beginning. And Ellison didn't go slow. Majority of his laps were within 1 second of his qualification time. Quite a few were even better than anything he managed to do in all prior sessions. Seems to me the tire degradation is no problem at all.

The bet was for or against tire degradation to decide the outcome of the top 3. Based on any objective information it didn't.

[Faster1]

nah ,, we try not to scrap

These contest don't really have much at stake and we try to "moderator decides" everything after we plead our case.

I deduced that Casey spun his tires way more than Jorge because he couldn't keep up his first half pace. If not for the tires, Casey would have won by 10 seconds. He made no off-track mistakes, and there were more than a few shots of his bike getting really squirrely towards the end. Very few things were mentioned more than how tire wear was going to be and issue. We wouldn't necessary need to hear it from the rider as it's normal for the tires to go away, in this case Stoner (and Bradl) more than others. I actually would never expect anything relevant about the race to be confessed in truth from the rider.

I have no points on this bet, so my take is neutral, just calling it like I see it.

[The Scribe]

~
Have to disagree with 923.

Stoners tire degradation WAS a contributing factor.

IMO - should be "against" as the bet read "will not"

If you click in "Notes" just next to the prediction in mototheory.com, it says:

Prediction: Tyre degradation will not be a deciding factor in any of the top 3 placings
Details: Decided by riders themselves stating it as the reason for their placing

No rider said anything on tyres degradation, so I think it should be FOR (though my money is placed on AGAINST, sadly).

[Desmo44]

923 should be "FOR".

No rider commented on tire degradation, all three rears appeared to look unaffected in parc ferme and Stoner's performance fall-off was most certainly due to his degrading physical condition.

I'm not involved with the bet.

[Squidpuppet]

I should have made you a side wager.

YOu didn´t include my last post did you. I would never have taken the wager after FP3..

I know, I know. I was hoping for the "Angry Kid" to make an apperance.