2012 MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 4 - Le Mans

[RatsMC]

Monster Energy Grand Prix de France


This is the fourth round of the season.



The Set Up:

Everyone is welcome to play and help out! If you don't understand everything, just ask.

How it works: All players are welcome to make predictions on anything related to a race weekend, such as results, rider placement, practice results, crashes, Dorna announcements or rule-making shenanigans, Jeremy Burgess appearing in pit lane in pink footy pajamas – anything as long as the results will be determined by the day after the race (Monday except in the case of Assen).

As the predictions are made, I will record them over at MotoTheory. Once the predictions are recorded, all players can bet for or against that prediction.

In addition to making predictions and betting for or against them, players can also bet on who they believe the race winner will be. These bets can be placed on the same page as the prediction bets.

Each player is given 100 points at the start of each round (race). These 100 points can be placed on any prediction or race winner. You can put them all on a single prediction or put one point on all of them, however you want.

Each prediction has odds associated with it. These odds are determined by how much is bet for or against the prediction. If a lot of players bet for one prediction while not many bet against it, the odds will be much higher on the against side. This means that the players who bet against the prediction will win more if the prediction turns out not to be true. Typically though, lower odds bets are more likely to pay off.

In addition, we are now tracking which player made each prediction and how much action there is on each prediction. At the end of each round the prediction that generated the most activity and the player who made that prediction will be the winner of this round of the Predictor’s Cup. Right now, the Predictor’s Cup is just about bragging rights but we are working on prizes.


Once the race is over, the outcome for each prediction will be determined. Each player wins points for every prediction they bet correctly on. Additionally, there is a bonus of up to 75 points for accuracy. If all of your bets were correct you win the additional 75 point bonus. If you only picked half of your bets correctly you will receive just half of the bonus (37.5 points)

Once the outcomes have been calculated, the results will be posted in this topic.

To make things a little more interesting, prizes will be awarded throughout the season. The season is broken into several sections that each contains several races. At the final race within each section, the player who scored the highest overall will receive a prize such as a MotoMatters calendar or mug or sometimes something really cool brought back from David Emmett’s race coverage travels.



For new players, you can find the complete instructions here: http://www.mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/prediction-contest-instructions.


When posting new predictions please use this format:

NEW Prediction

Rider X will finish 2 laps down - xx points


Where xx points is the amount you want to bet. Note, the statement is in bold. Please back up your prediction with a starting bet. This helps players when deciding whether to bet against you and helps to ensure your bet will be challenged.

Also, please do not put a . at the end of your prediction. I have to copy/paste them into the system and the period makes that more difficult.

Finally, when placing your predictions, please look through the Guidelines for how prediction outcomes will be determined.

[RatsMC]

This is the last round of this section which means there will be a prize for the winner of the section (yes, I am employed again).

I'm considering doing MotoTheory stickers but a) I haven't been able to put a serious amount of work into the site in quite a while and b) I'm not sure why anyone would put a MotoTheory sticker on anything and c) I am a seriously lame graphic designer.

However, the prizes this season will be better than a lame sticker.

[corinthian]

Congrats on re-employment. How about a sticker design comp?

[lebowski]

Good idea. I'm worse than useless with design but will happily purchase one.

NEW PREDICTION - Race win AND stand up wheelie by Stoner - 60 points

[Faster1]

~ NEW

Rossi & Hayden finish consecutively........................................ 10 RTPTS
Either Stoner/Lorenzo/Pedrosa have a clear off track excursion*....... 10 RTPTS
A CRT finishes better than any non CRT (DNFs included)................. 10 RTPTS


* Run wide/off track,, out brake themselves,, get forced off,, full-on crash etc

[MiniNinjaMk5]

I haven't done this before, so please tell me if I made a mistake with it!

NEW predictions

Stoner to have at least 2 fist/head shaking actions because of people blocking him in practise/qualifying. - 20 points
A tech 3 bike to be on the podium on Sunday - 20pts

[MPA]

Congrats on the new job!!

[wilzilla]

I haven't done this before, so please tell me if I made a mistake with it!

Me neither!



I'm going to be brave, and since it's his home gp;

NEW prediction

RDP to finish inside top 10 - 20pts

[ieism]

Welcome to the contest new people, have you signed up at mototheory yet?

I tried beeing brave with my Jerez and Qatar prediction, and missed Estoril completely. So I'm now equal in points to anybody who's just started (zero). Wilzilla will be my nemesis this season, must finish higher....

(turn sound on)
http://youtu.be/MPfxtJ8SQgk

[clifford-jr]

NEW PREDICTION
Karel Abraham will finish in the points
10 points FOR

NEW PREDICTION
JLo (Lorenzo) will set a new lap record
10 points FOR

NEW PREDICTION
Tino (VR46) will be a member of the pre-event press conference AND finish from 3rd to 7th
10 points FOR

clifford-jr

[Cam D]

~ NEW

Rossi & Hayden finish consecutively........................................ 10 RTPTS
Either Stoner/Lorenzo/Pedrosa have a clear off track excursion*....... 10 RTPTS
A CRT finishes better than any non CRT (DNFs included)................. 10 RTPTS


* Run wide/off track,, out brake themselves,, get forced off,, full-on crash etc

a clear off track excursion* = in the race? Or for all sessions?

[clifford-jr]

~ NEW

Rossi & Hayden finish consecutively........................................ 10 RTPTS
Either Stoner/Lorenzo/Pedrosa have a clear off track excursion*....... 10 RTPTS
A CRT finishes better than any non CRT (DNFs included)................. 10 RTPTS


* Run wide/off track,, out brake themselves,, get forced off,, full-on crash etc

a clear off track excursion* = in the race? Or for all sessions?

based on what i have read, it would be during the race

if a veteran predictor could confirm, it would be appreciated

clifford-jr

[RatsMC]

I haven't done this before, so please tell me if I made a mistake with it!

Me neither!



I'm going to be brave, and since it's his home gp;

Welcome and thank you both for taking the time to format your predictions appropriately, it really is appreciated (faster1 still puts punctuation at the end of his predictions and he's been at this for at least three seasons ).

I think I am actually going torecommend that people use clifford-jr's format as it makes things really easy for me.


However, you'll both need to finish registering. Will, I saw that you registered at the site so you only have one more step, Mk5, you'll need to register at the site and then choose your player name (they can be the same but I prefer the player name match your forum name). The complete instructions are here: http://www.mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/prediction-contest-instructions

[RatsMC]

a clear off track excursion* = in the race? Or for all sessions?

Right now, all prediction are limited in scope to the race at hand. I haven't been motivated enough to figure out how to structure the database to handle multi-round predictions, let alone how to make sure the betting would be fairly handled. It is an interesting challenge and could be pretty cool but I need to have that lightening strike of an idea.

[Cam D]

a clear off track excursion* = in the race? Or for all sessions?

Right now, all prediction are limited in scope to the race at hand. I haven't been motivated enough to figure out how to structure the database to handle multi-round predictions, let alone how to make sure the betting would be fairly handled. It is an interesting challenge and could be pretty cool but I need to have that lightening strike of an idea.

Just so there is no misunderstanding Rats, I was asking if it was just for the race itself or did it include the practice sesssions as well. I wasn't meaning multi-round. Pretty sure I have seen bets placed that included all sessions inc the race?

[Cam D]

NEW PREDICTION -
Dovi beats Cal
10 points for

NEW PREDICTION -
A Ducati posts highest speed for the weekend
10 points for

NEW PREDICTION -
Dani Pedrosa will finish second or better
10 points for

[RatsMC]

Unchallenged Predictions

>

ID	Prediction	Points to be Challenged
966	Race win AND stand up wheelie by Stoner	60
967	Either Stoner/Lorenzo/Pedrosa have a clear off track excursion*	10
968	Rossi & Hayden finish consecutively	10
969	A CRT finishes better than any non CRT (DNFs included)	10
970	Karel Abraham will finish in the points	10
971	JLo (Lorenzo) will set a new lap record	10
972	Tino (VR46) will be a member of the pre-event press conference AND finish from 3rd to 7th	10
973	Dovi beats Cal	10
974	A Ducati posts highest speed for the weekend	10
975	Dani Pedrosa will finish second or better	10

[RatsMC]

Dovi beats Cal

This is turning into the Schwantz/Rainey rivalry except it is for fourth place.

[Cam D]

Talking of Rainey, I was mega impressed with his podium percentage in Dennis's article on Speed. http://moto-racing.speedtv.com/article/motogp-noyes-notebook-men-who-stare-at-goats/
All Time Podium Appearance Percentage (1949 to Present)
1 Wayne Rainey 77.1% (64 of 83)
2 Giacomo Agostini 73.9% (88 of 119)
3 Mike Hailwood 73.8% (48 of 65)
4 John Surtees 70.6% (24 of 34)
5 Valentino Rossi 69.8% (139 of 199)
6 Mick Doohan 69.3% (95 of 137)
7 Kenny Roberts (Snr) 67.2% (39 of 58)
8 Jorge Lorenzo 66.2% (45 of 68)
9 Phil Read 64.2% (34 of 53)
10 Eddie Lawson 61.4% (78 of 127)

[RatsMC]

That is really impressive considering the competition he faced.

As is being discussed in the Estoril thread, stats require context to be meaningful. Surtees' numbers are in the top ten but they don't tell you that he also won every race he finished in 1959. The stats also don't explain why that happened.

In context, Rainey's podiums are extremely impressive, moreso than a top ten list implies.

[wilzilla]

However, you'll both need to finish registering. Will, I saw that you registered at the site so you only have one more step, Mk5, you'll need to register at the site and then choose your player name (they can be the same but I prefer the player name match your forum name). The complete instructions are here: http://www.mototheory.com/motogp-prediction-contest/prediction-contest-instructions

All done, thanks Rats.

And ieism, I was trying to think of a good comparison of rivalries at the minute, dovi vs. cal, stoner vs. lorenzo etc. However I feel like i could be more of a barbera vs...? i.e Just hanging around behind you down the straights/results table

Of course I hope i'm wrong, but I don't want to be all talk and no show, so i'll stick to quiet and reserved

[ieism]

And ieism, I was trying to think of a good comparison of rivalries at the minute, dovi vs. cal, stoner vs. lorenzo etc. However I feel like i could be more of a barbera vs...? i.e Just hanging around behind you down the straights/results table

Of course I hope i'm wrong, but I don't want to be all talk and no show, so i'll stick to quiet and reserved

Yes Barbera vs. Rossi would be a good comparison, but i'm afraid we're a bit further behind and i'm not a nine times champion at this either. More like Ellison vs. Silva at the moment.

[RatsMC]

All done, thanks Rats.

Thanks. I've added your prediction (I can't add them until the person making them is registered).

[RatsMC]

Updated Odds

*Accurate at the time posted. Any bets placed after this is posted will change the odds. Please check here for up-to-date odds.





Unchallenged Predictions

>

ID	Prediction	Points to be Challenged
966	Race win AND stand up wheelie by Stoner	60
967	Either Stoner/Lorenzo/Pedrosa have a clear off track excursion*	10
968	Rossi & Hayden finish consecutively	10
969	A CRT finishes better than any non CRT (DNFs included)	10
970	Karel Abraham will finish in the points	10
971	JLo (Lorenzo) will set a new lap record	10
972	Tino (VR46) will be a member of the pre-event press conference AND finish from 3rd to 7th	10
974	A Ducati posts highest speed for the weekend	10
975	Dani Pedrosa will finish second or better	10
976	RDP to finish inside top 10	20

Challenged Predictions

>

ID	Prediction	Odds For	Odds Against
973	Dovi beats Cal	2.0 to 1	2.0 to 1

[Faster1]

~ NEW

Rossi & Hayden finish consecutively........................................ 10 RTPTS
Either Stoner/Lorenzo/Pedrosa have a clear off track excursion*....... 10 RTPTS
A CRT finishes better than any non CRT (DNFs included)................. 10 RTPTS


* Run wide/off track,, out brake themselves,, get forced off,, full-on crash etc

a clear off track excursion* = in the race? Or for all sessions?

sorry for the fussy logic CAM ,,,, all predictions are for between lights out to checker,, race only